Almost two weeks ago, President-elect Donald Trump was declared the victor in the 2024 presidential election, even winning the popular vote, a feat not achieved by a Republican since 2004. Trump will also have a Republican-controlled Senate and House of Representatives to work with. In addition to the exit polls that came in that night, there have also been plenty of post-election analyses and memos.
As we covered last week, Trump made gains with Jewish voters, though that's certainly not the only demographic he improved with. Also last week, Cygnal put out a post-election memo, with almost all of the takeaways being only positive for Trump and Republicans.
"This was both a turnout and a realignment election," the memo highlights, with original emphasis. "We found this was very much a realignment election, driven by changes in key generational and racial groups." Leading up to the election, many pointed out that the race would come down to turnout. The memo also mentioned findings that would have been shocking just a few years ago, certainly generations ago, regarding what demographics support the two parties. "The Republican Party is increasingly multi-racial and working class, with strong support among married adults; the Democratic Party is increasingly a coalition of college-educated and older voters," it reads.
Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who caucuses with the Democrats, thrust Democrats into further disarray with a statement shared to X just days after the election in which he called the Democratic Party out for, amongst other things, no longer supporting the working class. His statement earned the rather public ire of DNC Chairman Jaime Harrison, as well as Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Representative Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), who chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC).
Overall, Democrats continue to look to be in disarray over why they lost, which has been a hot topic and could continue to be if Democrats learn nothing in time for the 2026 midterms or even the 2028 presidential election.
As the memo mentions, there were shifts by race, with Hispanic voters shifting from D+33 in 2020 to D+9, a shift of 24 points to the right. Indeed, we had been covering how other polls leading up to the election warned that Vice President Kamala Harris was not where she needed to be with key groups, including and especially Hispanics. Trump even won Hispanic men by R+1, the memo highlights, after losing them by D+23 in 2020. Although Harris still won Hispanic women by D+16, they went D+39 in 2020.
Just as there had been chatter about Hispanic voters leading up to the election, so was the case with black voters. They shifted to the right by 16 points, from D+75 to D+59, which the memo explains "is more driven by black men," who voted D+60 and now voted D+38. Sure enough, it turns out that former President Barack Obama trying to bully them into voting for Harris, and Harris herself trying to pander to them, didn't work. Black women saw a small shift of D+81 to D+78 from 2020 to 2024.
Trump also saw boosts with groups he already did well with, including voters broken down by generation, with the memo noting, "Gen X swung hardest right." While Trump just barely won those ages 45-64 in 2020 by R+1, he won them by R+13 in 2024. Even younger voters shifted as well, with Gen Z voters voting D+24 in 2020 to D+16 in 2024.
We've covered for over a year how Trump looked to be gaining with younger voters, especially when it looked like he was going up against Biden. However, Harris still had her own failings as she desperately tried to pander to that demographic as well.
The memo also notes that men under 30 were R+10 this election, a demographic that indeed looked to be trending right. Harris did a particularly pathetic job in trying to appeal to the voting bloc, as she wouldn't even go on "The Joe Rogan Experience," and her team had very difficult requirements even if she were to go on. It was a move she's continuously been criticized over.
From there, the memo highlights Trump's performance in six swing states: Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada.
Trump won all those six swing states in 2024, plus Arizona, with his raw votes 6 percent higher than in 2020, as the memo mentions. He did particularly well in Georgia (+8 percent) and Nevada (+9 percent).
In addition to Trump's wins in the seven swing states, Republican Senator-elect Dave McCormick won in Pennsylvania, while Republicans in Wisconsin and Nevada came close to unseating Democratic incumbents. The Republican also came close to winning the open Senate seat in Michigan.
Not only did Trump perform particularly well in the swing states, but Harris performed worse than Biden in the raw votes. "Harris' raw votes compared to Biden’s in 2020 were down 1%. Comparing cumulative raw votes in these states, Harris received 76k fewer votes, and Trump received 757k more votes – a net 833k difference," the memo explains.
Republicans even did better in the blue states, while Democrats did not, as the memo further mentions in what looks to be a particularly damning section [emphasis original]:
Democratic votes dropped, while Republican votes grew; this was even more noticeable in red and blue states, somewhat in the swing states.
Looking at four red states (FL, TX, IA & MO), Harris received 9% fewer votes than Biden in 2020. Inversely, Trump received 7% more votes than in 2020. In just these four red states, Trump increased his raw vote margin from 1.6mil to 3.8mil – a 2.2mil vote increase.
The trend continues in the blue states. By looking at four blue states (DE, CT, NM & VT) that have fully reported, Harris received 6% fewer votes than 2020, while Trump received 4% more votes.
Democrats are growing more dependent on the coastal elites. Urban areas gave Harris her only community-type growth from D+22 to D+29. On the other end, the Rurals doubled their margin for Trump (R+15 to R+31). The Suburbs stayed put at D+2.
Again, the information above is super damning to Democrats, even when it comes to those groups they made gains with, if they don't wish to be seen as so out of touch. Not only did rural voters shift even further to the right, but suburban voters stayed the same, despite how Harris tried so desperately to appeal to suburban women by campaigning with former Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) and obsessing over a pro-abortion message.
Trump did slightly worse with college-educated voters this time, which again speaks to a sense of elitism. It was only a slight slip, though, as they went from D+12 in 2020 to D+15 in 2024. Even then, it was driven by white voters, who went from D+3 to D+9, as voters of color with a degree shifted right, from D+43 to D+40.
Even still, there's an issue for Democrats here to take away, as the memo highlights [emphasis original]:
The bigger shift that was most damning for Democrats was how non-college-educated voters of all races repudiated the left by voting much more for Republicans. In 2020, Trump won this crucial voter group by R+2. This year, Trump dominated them (R+16). The story here is that all the positive movement was among NON-WHITE, non-college voters. This group shifted right by 19 points (D+46 to D+27). White non-college voters slipped a bit for Trump (R+35 to R+33).
While we have been hearing that this was an election of turnout, there were some narrative busters regarding early voting.
"Trump secured the election through early in-person voting," the memo emphasizes, as he won such voters by 6 points. He also won Election Day voters by 3 points. Harris won those who voted by mail by +31.
Another narrative buster is how late deciders actually broke for Trump rather than Harris, despite how the Harris team was hoping that's how she could get some desperately needed support. "Men were the late deciders in this race, and they swung things Trump’s way. 9% of voters waited until the final week to decide who to support, and they were overwhelmingly non-college educated," the memo emphasizes.
The memo also looked at how the top issues were "very partisan." For instance, 84 percent of Harris' voters said "threats to democracy" were a top issue, while just 15 percent of Trump voters said so. This is hardly surprising, given the hysterical fearmongering from the Harris-Walz ticket and other top Democrats. In contrast, just 5 percent of Harris' voters said immigration was a top issue, while 94 percent of Trump voters did.
"Republicans had the edge on partisan-intensity issues that likely drove turnout higher for them," the memo emphasizes.
Sure enough, Trump has made good on his promise to crack down on illegal immigration, with Trump and Tom Homan, appointed as his border czar, already laying out a plan for mass deportations.
The memo was conducted on Election Day with 9,000 voters.
