GOP challenger David McCormick has won a Pennsylvania U.S. Senate seat in an upset, dethroning incumbent three-term Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, according to AP and Politico.
As of Thursday afternoon, ballots were still being counted in Cambria County due largely to Election Day issues with scanning ballots, which caused a court-ordered extension of the county's polling times by two hours. However, ballots cast after the standard 8 p.m. deadline were considered provisional votes, which had to be verified by election officials before being counted.
McCormick's campaign released a statement Thursday declaring victory and citing "ruby red" Cambria County as a Republican stronghold: "While votes continue to be counted, any way you slice it, Dave McCormick will be the next United States Senator from Pennsylvania."
Casey's campaign, meanwhile, said they were "confident that at the end of that process, Senator Casey will be re-elected." The senator's statement also noted that the vote margin was narrow enough (McCormick's 49 percent to Casey's 48.5 percent) to trigger a recount — within half a point, the threshold for automatic recounts in Pennsylvania, according to state law.
Two weeks ago, the tight Pennsylvania Senate race shifted from "lean Democrat" to "toss-up" territory, according to Cook Political Report's rating placing the contest in a more competitive category. As Townhall covered, the forecast change spotlighted Casey's vulnerability and increasing GOP momentum in the lead-up to Election Day.
Casey's campaign, concerned about the trajectory of the election, sent out a desperate fundraising text reacting to the rating switch, saying: "Folks, this is bad news at an even worse time. The Cook Political Report just moved our Senate Race to a Toss Up — meaning my opponent, David McCormick, has a real chance of winning and flipping Pennsylvania red."
Once polling comfortably ahead, Casey lost ground on the campaign trail to the point that McCormick narrowed the gap between them to inside the margin of error.
"While public polling in the Keystone State still shows Democratic Sen. Bob Casey with a slight lead, both Republican and Democratic internal polls show this is now a margin-of-error race, with Casey holding a slim, statistically insignificant lead of between one and two points," per Cook Political Report.
According to a Washington Free Beacon analysis of Casey's fracking record, the senator sought to reassure voters he supports fracking, although he tried six times to introduce constraints on the fracking industry, which employs over 20,000 Pennsylvanians.
During his 17-year tenure in the Senate, Casey repeatedly co-sponsored the Fracturing Responsibility and Awareness of Chemicals (FRAC) Act, which would give the federal government, specifically the Environmental Protection Agency, "rigorous oversight" of the fracking process. Industry advocates opposing the FRAC Act say such heavy-handed regulations would kill hundreds of thousands of working-class jobs and raise energy prices.
In Philadelphia, the state's largest and bluest city, a union representing more than 4,500 firefighters, paramedics, and EMTs flipped for McCormick, ditching Casey, whom union leaders had backed during the Democrat's three previous Senate bids.
McCormick charged Casey with supporting sanctuary cities and other open-border policies that strain public resources and burden first responders. Philadelphia is a so-called "sanctuary city" for illegal immigrants. "What's Bob Casey done? He's essentially supported policies that have made the jobs of these guys a lot tougher," McCormick said in response to the union's support.
McCormick also earned the endorsement of Trump ally Elon Musk.
In the 2022 midterms, then seeking retiring Sen. Pat Toomey's vacant Senate seat, McCormick narrowly lost the Republican nomination to Dr. Mehmet Oz by less than 0.5 percent (fewer than 1,000 votes). This time he ran unopposed, with the Pennsylvania GOP unanimously endorsing him at the outset of the race.
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