The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former and potentially future President Donald Trump is looking close just five weeks out from Election Day, and that's bad news for the Democratic nominee. While Harris may be ahead in general election polling and with key voter demographics, she's not where she needs to be. This includes with Latino voters.
Over the weekend, as Guy touched upon on Monday, an NBC/Telemundo poll was released showing where the candidates stand among Latino voters.
NBC News/Telemundo poll of Latino Voters
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 29, 2024
🟦 Harris: 54% (+14)
🟥 Trump: 40%
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NBC/Telemundo polling trends among Latino Voters
2020: Biden +36 (63-27)
2016: Clinton +50 (69-19)
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1,000 RV | September 16-23 | ±3.1%https://t.co/sKghULDoLo pic.twitter.com/gncvZdvQlY
The NBC News headline went with a warning for Harris, "Poll: Democrats' advantage with Latino voters continues to shrink." The subheadline also highlighted, "Harris leads Trump nationally among Latinos, 54% to 40%, but Democrats’ edge is at its lowest level in the last four presidential cycles." Such a point was reiterated in the write-up's opening paragraphs.
While Harris may lead Trump by 54-40 percent among Latino voters, President Joe Biden led by 63-27 percent in 2020 against Trump, and Hillary Clinton led Trump by 69-19 percent in 2016. In 2012, then-President Barack Obama led Mitt Romney by 65-26 percent.
"Ultimately, Democratic presidential candidates ended up winning Latino voters by 44 points in 2012, 38 points in 2016 and 33 points in 2020, according to the NBC News exit polls in those years," the write-up also pointed out.
Just as the economy is a top issue for voters across all demographics, so it is with Latino voters:
Overall, the poll shows that Democratic presidential candidate Harris has lost some ground with Latinos at a time when these consequential voters are more likely than the general electorate to cite the economy and the rising cost of living as top priorities. On both of these issues, Latino voters give Trump the advantage, but a majority of them prefer Harris on temperament, competency and having the necessary mental and physical health to be president.
By 45-41 percent, voters believe Trump would be better than Harris at "dealing with the economy." His lead on "dealing with inflation and the cost of living" is even better, with voters saying Trump would be better on this issue by 46-37 percent.
Not only do voters think Trump would be better on economic issues, but they also believe that to be the case regarding border security. By 47-34 percent, voters believe Trump would be better than Harris on "securing the border and controlling immigration."
Over half of voters say that economic issues are their top issues, with 34 percent saying the "cost of living" is the issue they feel is the most important. Twenty percent say "jobs and the economy" is the top issue.
More than three-fourths of voters, 77 percent, say that the economy is fair or poor, including 46 percent who say it's "poor." Close to two-thirds of voters, 65 percent, say their family's income is "falling behind the cost of living," while just 6 percent say it's "going up faster than the cost of living." Twenty-nine percent say it's "staying about the same." These results are worse than they were two years ago.
The poll also revealed that by 54-42 percent, these voters want to see a Democratic-controlled Congress as opposed to a Republican-controlled Congress. This is the same number Democrats were at in September 2022, while support for Republicans rose from 33 percent in 2022.
While Democrats still enjoy a lead regarding which party Latinos say "shares your values," 39-28 percent, that's a far cry from September 2022, when Democrats led on that question by 47-28 percent. There's been an increase in the number of voters who say both parties about the same, at 18 percent, which is up from 13 percent in 2022, and an increase in the amount of voters who say neither, at 14 percent, which is up from 11 percent in 2022.
Bringing this further back to immigration, Latino voters aren't as liberal on the issue as one might think. A majority, 58 percent, acknowledge the border is not secure, with 30 percent saying it's "totally not secure." This is a far cry from 2022, when a plurality, 46 percent, believed it was secure.
Further, 74 percent of Latino voters favor the "Remain in Mexico" policy, which is described in the poll as "Requiring migrants coming to the U.S. southern border seeking asylum to remain in Mexico until their asylum case is heard."
The poll surveyed 1,000 registered Latino voters from September 17-23 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Forty-nine percent of respondents considered themselves Democrats, 37 percent considered themselves Republicans, and 16 percent were Independents.
The poll also covers a split along gender lines:
Driving the declining support for Democrats in the presidential contest are defections from Latino men, particularly those without college degrees and those under the age of 50, the poll shows. But solid Democratic support from Hispanic women, or Latinas, has helped offset some of that erosion.
...
Their divide is representative of how Harris and Trump are splitting the vote evenly among Latino men, with each getting 47% support, the poll shows, versus Harris’ 26-point lead among Latinas.
That’s a shift from NBC’s merged polling from 2020, when Biden held a 20-point lead over Trump among Latino men. Young Hispanic voters ages 18 to 34 have also moved, supporting Harris over Trump by 10 points (51%-41%), down from Biden’s 44-point lead in 2020 (66%-22%).
Among Latino men, Trump gets more support from men under 50 (they break for him over Harris, 51%-42%) and from those without college degrees (who prefer Trump, 51%-38%), according to this poll.
Meanwhile, Harris’ stronghold remains with Latinas over 50 (winning them 74%-22%) and Hispanic women with college degrees (61%-35%).
The poll included more women than men, by 53-47 percent.
The Trump-Vance campaign on Monday highlighted, "New NBC/Telemundo Poll Shows Kamala Is HEMORRHAGING Latino Support While Trump Gains Historical Ground."
Among those highlights mentioned by the campaign include how Harris has turned to performative tricks, such as fake accents. "Kamala's pathetic and desperate attempts at pandering among Latinos, including with a fake Hispanic accent, are clearly not working. Hispanic Americans feel that Democrats have taken them for granted for too long," the campaign highlighted.
The campaign went on to detail findings on the economy, as well as remind us how much better we were under Trump:
Despite the liberal media backlash, lies, and the political persecutions, President Trump is still leading among the issues Latino Americans care about the most – including the economy, rising cost of living, as well as immigration and securing the border.
77% of Latinos in that same poll now rate the economy under the Harris-Biden administration as poor. They know that President Trump achieved record low unemployment, historically low poverty, low inflation, and record high homeownership rates for Hispanics. In less than 4 years, the Biden-Harris administration has destroyed the American Dream for Latinos.
Latino Americans feel economically insecure and unsafe with every passing day that “Que Mala” Kamala remains in the White House. Everywhere they go, whether it is to buy their Cafecito of the day, to fill up their gas tanks, to pay their rent and bills, or to go to the grocery store, prices are eating away their paychecks and savings.
To make matters worse, they see illegal migrants that have just crossed the border – unchecked, unvetted – being rewarded with free housing, free healthcare, and free debit cards from Democrat officials. All while tens of thousands of them continue to smuggle drugs into our neighborhoods, commit murders and assaults against innocent Americans, and remain protected by Democrats’ own "sanctuary” cities.
Hispanic American families are feeling the pain, and they’ve had enough of it.
The rest of the focus is on "Que Mala" Kamala, which means "how bad" Kamala in Spanish. Nick Arama noticed the nickname last month on our sister site RedState.
As the campaign continued:
These are the dangerous consequences of a radically liberal administration that prioritizes the livelihoods of illegal aliens over the livelihoods of the American people. A second chance for “Que Mala” Kamala would mean she will continue to coddle illegals by backing mass amnesty, sanctuary cities, abolishing ICE, decriminalizing illegal border crossings, free health care for illegals, and cause so much more economic devastation for Hispanic families with Communist-style price controls (like in Venezuela), higher unemployment, higher taxes, and shrinking wages.
Ronald Reagan said it best when he said that “Hispanics are conservatives, they just don’t know it yet.”
Hispanics are finally waking up – and they are now supporting President Donald Trump's reelection into the White House to Make America Affordable, Safe, and Great Again.
¡Kamala – Que Mala eres! (How Awful you are!)
In even better news, a Quinnipiac poll from last week, as we covered, even showed Trump leading with Latinos.
While Harris is also leading with groups such as black voters, she's not doing as well as she needs to with the key demographic, as an NAACP poll from last month revealed.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: Quinnipiac crosstabs
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 24, 2024
2-WAY
🟥 Trump: 48% [=]
🟦 Harris: 48% [-1]
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FULL FIELD
🟥 Trump: 48% [+1]
🟦 Harris: 47% [-2]
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟪 Oliver: 1%
[+/- change vs 8/23-27]
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Crosstabs (2-way)
• Independents: Trump 48-46%
• Democrats: Harris 94-5%
• Republicans:… pic.twitter.com/fJ89dukGFG
