Vice President Kamala Harris, who became the Democratic nominee in a particularly undemocratic fashion, has been enjoying a slight lead over former and potentially future President Donald Trump in the polls. That said, her lead doesn't look big enough for her to get too comfortable. Now that we're past Labor Day, the election is getting increasingly closer, but there are still two months for voters to learn more about Harris and the far-left agenda she and her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), have planned for the country.
Tuesday morning, USA Today shared its latest poll with Suffolk University. "Kamala Harris heads into Trump debate with lead, rising enthusiasm," touted the headline. This comes after last week's headline, "Exclusive: Kamala Harris surges ahead of Donald Trump in latest poll taken after DNC."
Harris currently leads Trump by 48-43 percent, outside the margin of error. Regarding the enthusiasm factor, 60 percent of Trump supporters say they're "very excited" about voting for the Republican nominee, while 68 percent of Harris supporters say so about the Democratic nominee. That number was just 30 percent for Biden in the June poll, and it makes sense that those numbers would go up when Democratic voters were faced with anyone but Biden.
The poll also shows that more voters believe Harris will win over Trump, 49.50 percent to 37.90 percent. Eighty-seven percent of Harris' supporters believe she will win, compared to 76 percent of Trump supporters who think he will win.
Voters were also asked which candidate they preferred on six issues. Trump still enjoys his lead on top issues like the economy and immigration:
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- On the economy, Trump leads Harris by 50.6 percent over 44.8 percent.
- On immigration, Trump leads with 50.2 to Harris' 46.5 percent.
- On national security, Trump leads with 50.5 percent to Harris' 46.3 percent.
- On dealing with China, Trump leads 49.5 percent to Harris' 45.6 percent.
- On race relations, Harris enjoys a lead of 56.1 to Trump's 37.5 percent.
- On healthcare, Harris leads with 53.9 to Trump's 40.1 percent.
The USA Today write-up made it a point to mention that Trump's lead on those issues has lessened. Again, Harris has benefited from not being Biden. Is that really to her own credit, though? As we covered when Harris' replacement of Biden was particularly fresh, it's worth being skeptical of findings showing a lessened or vanished lead for Trump on top issues.
That USA Today mentions the upcoming debate on September 10 with ABC News in its headline is also telling. "At least one televised debate − next Tuesday, Sept. 10 − is ahead, and about 1 in 10 voters say they might change their mind or are undecided," the outlet's Tuesday morning write-up mentioned.
Harris has not held a press conference since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 and endorsed her in a letter shared to his X account. She only recently gave an interview last Thursday with CNN, though Walz came along and Harris went with a particularly biased interviewer, Dana Bash. The current vice president has also complained about the rules of the debate on her X account, namely that she doesn't want the microphones to be muted. The rules are the same ones Trump and Biden accepted for their June 27 debate. Those were actually rules the Biden campaign insisted on, yet it still wasn't enough to benefit the president, and he was forced out of the race less than a month later.
While Harris ran for president in 2020 and dropped out in December 2019 before she even made it to a primary contest, she did tellingly make it to the debate stage, where she took on a combative tone.
Regarding Harris' CNN interview, viewers didn't gain more insight into Harris' policy views, including her flip-flopping positions. She still lacks a policy section on her website and many of her policies have been copied from Trump or Senator JD Vance (R-OH), Trump's running mate. What positions are her own, especially price controls, have been widely panned as Communist.
That being said, having too low expectations for Harris could be problematic for the Trump campaign and fellow Republicans. If Harris fails spectacularly at the debate as they expect, it's doubtful that she'll continue to enjoy much, if any, lead in the polls.
This write-up also fails to mention the job approval numbers for Biden, Harris, and Trump. Harris is about even with her approval/disapproval levels, as 46.7 percent approve of the job she's doing as vice president and 46.4 percent disapprove, including 34.1 percent who say they do so "strongly." Almost half of voters, 48.8 percent, say they disapprove of Biden, including 35.30 percent who say they do so "strongly." As she is the sitting vice president, Harris is often accurately tied to the Biden administration and his presidency. Meanwhile, 47.9 percent say they approve of Biden's job performance.
Just over half, 50.1 percent, say they disapprove of the job Trump did as president, with 36.4 percent saying they do so "strongly." Just under 48 percent say they approve of the job he did, and those who say they "strongly" do so is far higher than those who say the same about Biden, 28.2 percent to 17.7 percent.
The numbers on job performance, even regarding Biden, are rather suspect. Other polls have shown Trump with a higher approval rating, including a higher approval rating than Biden, as voters in hindsight look back more fondly on his administration.
The poll was conducted August 25-28 with 1,000 likely voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Although the USA Today/Suffolk University poll is not included in the averages, RealClearPolling currently shows Harris with a lead of +1.9 over Trump.
