The 2024 election brought glorious victories for President-Elect Donald Trump and the Republican Party, especially as it's looking increasingly likely that Republicans will control the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. Not only did Trump ultimately win 312 electoral votes, but he even won the popular vote, achieving what Republicans have not done since 2004. The Trump campaign maintained that certain states were in play, even ones Republicans have not won or come close to in decades.
Part of Trump's landslide win involved victory in all seven swing states, with Arizona the last state to be called on Wednesday night. Although Trump did not win these states, he came close in Virginia, New Hampshire, New York, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Minnesota, where Vice President Kamala Harris' running mate, Tim Walz, serves as governor.
Virginia -13 votes
The commonwealth hasn’t voted for a Republican nominee since 2004. In 2020, President Joe Biden beat Trump by 10 percentage points. Meanwhile, Harris only won there by 5.2 percentage points.
When forecasters started to look beyond the main seven swing states, Virginia was included among them. It was also considered only a "Lean Democratic" state by RealClearPolling.
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Trump campaigned in Virginia with Republican Glenn Youngkin in Chesapeake on June 28, and more recently in the weekend before the election in Salem. He wouldn't have done so if he didn't think the commonwealth was in play.
Especially over the summer, there was chatter that the governor would ultimately be Trump's running mate. Should Trump have picked Youngkin for the spot? Not necessarily. He could still perhaps be a part of this incoming Trump administration, and/or maybe he'll even run for president himself in 2028, especially as he's prevented from running for governor again by the state constitution until 2029.
Sen. JD Vance was a spectacular choice, with Trump candidly addressing his role during his victory speech on early Wednesday morning. It’s also significant that Vance is from Ohio, a state the ticket won by over 11 points this year. Such a margin is an improvement from Trump winning the state by around 8 points in both 2016 and 2020. Vance being on the ticket could also have helped play a role in Trump breaking the Democrats' Blue Wall, as well as how Republicans won the Rust Belt. Further, it's thanks to Republican Sen.-Elect Bernie Moreno, who unseated Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, that Republicans control the chamber.
New Hampshire-4 votes
On Tuesday, the Granite State elected Republican Kelly Ayotte as governor to replace retiring Gov. Chris Sununu, another Republican. The state had voted for the Democratic nominee for president since 2000, and that was after voting for President Bill Clinton in both 1992 and 1996.
Just like Virginia, this was another state that was included in the larger list of swing states, and for good reason. RCP even included New Hampshire as one of nine swing states for their map. Harris only won the state by 3.6 percent, while Biden won the state by 7.4 percent in 2020.
If there were two states not considered swing states that Trump would still be able to flip, New Hampshire and Virginia looked the most likely, and they did come pretty close, especially compared to 2020. Even though Trump can't run again, perhaps the gains he made in such states might just be enough for Republicans in the future.
From there, though, there were states which were less likely in play, but still came close, and some of them even shockingly so.
New Jersey-14 votes
Back in April, when Biden had not yet been forced out of the race by his fellow Democrats, it seemed too shocking to be true that an Emerson College poll was showing him up by only +7 against Trump in New Jersey. In reality, Democrats performed even worse than that with Harris at the top of the ticket.
New Jersey has voted for the Democratic candidate every year since 1988, and Biden won the by almost 16 percentage points in 2020. Harris only won by 5.1 percent of the vote, with 87 percent of the vote reporting as of Thursday night.
The map from RCP put New Jersey in the "Likely Democratic" column.
In May, Trump traveled to New Jersey to campaign there of all places. It was not long after that his campaign expressed that they believed New York and New Jersey were in play. Trump also campaigned in the bright blue Bronx later that month. There was still chatter about New Jersey being in play in July as well.
This actually isn't the only time that a Republican has come so close in the Garden State. In 2021, the same year that Youngkin was elected, Republican Jack Ciattarelli didn't concede to Democrat Gov. Phil Murphy until 10 days after that gubernatorial election. Ultimately, Murphy eked out a win with 51.2 percent of the vote to Ciattarelli's 48 percent.
New York-28 votes
Speaking of New York, this state was one many wrote off for Trump or any Republican. Granted, Trump didn't win, but he came much closer than previous cycles. The Empire State has voted for the Democrat every year since 1988.
In 2020, Biden won New York by just over 23 percentage points. This time, Harris only won by 11.6 percentage points, with 6 percent of the state still not reporting.
Donald Trump came closer to winning New York than Democrats did Florida. pic.twitter.com/BhGPeVulak
— Christian Heiens 🏛 (@ChristianHeiens) November 6, 2024
We were closer to winning New York than they were to winning Texas pic.twitter.com/lUZ15CsdNT
— HARLAN Z. HILL 🇺🇸 (@Harlan) November 6, 2024
Trump didn't merely campaign in New York back in May. He did so on October 27 at Madison Square Garden, nine days before the election. It was there that he spoke of the hope of such a lasting impact it would be for him to win New York. "It would be such an honor," he said, acknowledging it "hasn't been done in decades," speaking of a Republican nominee's win there. He specifically mentioned the rampant crime in the state, and elsewhere.
Trump to his hometown:
— Virginia Allen (@Virginia_Allen5) October 28, 2024
"It would be such an honor to win New York." pic.twitter.com/QW86mJ5NeM
It was from there that Trump went for a particularly passionate closing. "But this is the city where I was born and raised, and this is the town that taught me that Americans can do anything when they want to. So no matter our differences, when we work together, there is nothing that we cannot achieve," he said to begin his speech's conclusion.
New Mexico-5 votes
New Mexico has become a particularly blue state. That didn't stop Trump from campaigning in the Land of Enchantment, though, even as state Democrats tried to downplay the rally and went so far as allegedly creating parking issues.
In 2020, Biden won the state by close to 11 percentage points. Harris won this time by 5.7 percentage points. The state was in the "Lean Democratic" category this year, per the RCP map.
Republicans saw gains at the state level as well. As the Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) pointed out in a memo this week, New Mexico was on their list of reasons to celebrated, as "Republicans prevented a Democrat supermajority in the state Senate and flipped a seat in the House." In a press release highlighting how they were outspent but still achieved such victories, the RSLC noted that "Republicans prevented a Democrat supermajority in the state Senate and flipped a seat that has never been held by a Republican in NM history, as well as flipping a House seat in the Las Cruces suburbs."
It wasn't just the RSLC highlighting such statewide wins. The Associated Press did as well, with a headline addressing how "Democrats retain hold on New Mexico despite shifting support for Republicans." Such a write-up noted that "support for President-elect Donald Trump expanded as Republicans captured more legislative seats, reflecting a shift of voter sentiments."
The piece also went on to mention that Trump "cut into that deficit [of previous losses] and did so in historically Democratic counties as well as Republican strongholds, according to unofficial results from The Associated Press."
Minnesota-10 votes
The North Star State has voted for the Democratic nominee for president every year since 1976. And yet Harris still felt the need to pick Walz as her running mate. As we analyzed at the time of such an August pick, Walz's electoral history didn't exactly look to be doing Harris any favors there, with that looking to be the case based on polling as we got closer to November. Minnesota was even in the "Toss-Up" column, per RCP.
Before Harris made Walz her pick, or was even the nominee in place of Biden, Minnesota looked to be potentially close. Trump even came close in 2016 when going up against Hillary Clinton.
Not even having the sitting governor as her running mate could help Harris outperform Biden. In 2020, Biden won the state by just over 7 percentage points. This time, Harris won there by only 4.2 percentage points.
Walz, who appeared tearful at Harris' concession speech on Wednesday afternoon, had plenty more to cry about beyond not becoming vice president-elect. While he may presently have trifecta control in Minneapolis, that won't last for long. Republicans won enough House seats to flip control of the chamber, providing a system of checks and balances for Walz, whose term doesn't end until 2027.
NEW: Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff and Governor Tim Walz seen crying as Kamala Harris gives her concession speech.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 6, 2024
Not surprising.
The moment came as Harris seemed to choke up herself during the speech. pic.twitter.com/qK0V5XklvF
The RSLC was all too happy to tout their successes Minnesota in their memo and that press release, as well as a statement devoted to how "Minnesota Republicans Flip Seats, Restore Check and Balance in St. Paul."
"With Republicans flipping seats in house races across Minnesota and breaking out of the Democrat trifecta, voters made it clear they want Minnesota House Republicans to serve as a check and balance in St. Paul," said RSLC President Dee Duncan in a statement. "From implementing tax hikes and draining the state’s surplus, the Democrat DFL showed they will pursue an agenda that leaves Minnesota families behind when they have complete control. We knew that national liberal groups like the DLCC would spend heavily to keep their House majority, which is why the RSLC invested early and focused on top-of-mind issues that matter to Minnesotans. Congratulations to House Republican Leader Lisa Demuth and Minnesota Republicans for defying expectations and delivering strong Republican victories."
Of course, these are not the only states where Harris underperformed Biden from 2020. As Mia highlighted on Wednesday, CNN's Jake Tapper was rendered completely dumbstruck over John King's analysis in the early morning hours following the election results. Harris had failed to outperform Joe Biden's 2020 record in any of the 50 states.
Jake Tapper shocked to learn Harris didn't outperform Biden.
— Defiant L’s (@DefiantLs) November 6, 2024
“Holy smokes. Literally nothing?”pic.twitter.com/m7vKN06gqO
