There have been a series of polls lately pointing to predictable patterns, which is, in what looks to be a rather competitive 2024 presidential election race, former and potentially future President Donald Trump has the edge against President Joe Biden this time in the rematch from 2020. This especially applies to key swing states that will decide the election. But, thrown in that mix are some puzzling polls worth taking a closer look at.
According to RealClearPolling, Biden is leading in Pennsylvania by +0.1, due to the recent poll from Franklin & Marshall that shows him leading Trump by +10, with 48 percent support to Trump's 38 percent. Trump had previously been leading according to RCP, and Biden's current lead is by the most narrow of margins.
The poll also shows that Biden's lead in a head-to-head race against Trump has grown since January, while Trump's support has shrunk.
📊 PENNSYLVANIA GE: @FandMPoll
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 4, 2024
🟦 Biden 48% [+5]
🟥 Trump 38% [-4]
.
🟦 Biden 42% [=]
🟥 Trump 40% [+3]
🟨 RFK Jr 9% [+1]
🟩 Stein 3% [+1]
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Senate
🟦 Casey 46% [+1]
🟥 McCormick 39% [+4]
[+/- change vs January]
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538: #57 | 3/20-31 | 870 RV | ±4%https://t.co/2p85Q1XZvp pic.twitter.com/j3rpRmZTBE
It's worth noting that this wide lead is when voters are given the choices of only Trump, Biden, or "someone else" and "don't know," with 13 percent selecting that "someone else" category. When given named alternatives, Biden's lead shrinks considerably. He's at 42 percent support, while Trump is at 40 percent support, and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has 9 percent support. Jill Stein only has 3 percent support.
The takeaway from the write-up from the college focuses on Biden's lead against Trump with multiple candidates, highlighting, "Biden Narrowly Leads Trump in March F&M Poll."
"I think this race is going to be really hard to predict for a long time because so many people don't like either candidate and because a lot of people are looking for an alternative," Berwood Yost, director of the poll and the College's Center for Opinion Research, stated.
The poll also asked questions about the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania, where vulnerable Democratic incumbent Bob Casey, Jr. is slightly favored against Republican Dave McCormick. This poll also shows that a plurality of respondents, 46 percent, don't know enough about McCormick, which could be an opportunity for him, especially when he's down by 7 points (46-39 percent), but has been growing his support. A plurality, 26 percent, also say Casey is doing "a poor job" as senator.
A write-up from Politics PA about the poll highlights, "Pennsylvania Moving in More Positive Direction," which might explain why Biden has the edge over Trump that he does. That being said, a majority of respondents, 52 percent, say Biden is doing "a poor job" as president.
When voters are asked about which candidate is more aligned with questions such as matching their values, trustworthiness, age, and the like, the question where Trump enjoys an advantage is how 48 percent believe he "is most prepared to handle the economy," compared to 39 percent who say Biden is. Eighteen percent of voters also indicated earlier in the survey that "economy, finances" is the most important issue for Pennsylvania, making it the most selected issue.
Forty percent also believe Biden "is too old to serve another term," while 40 percent say both Trump and Biden are, and just 6 percent say Trump is.
A plurality of voters also say they'd be "very worried" about either of the candidates being reelected, with those numbers being 44 percent for Biden and 48 percent for Trump and "very sad," with those numbers being at 40 percent for Biden and 46 percent for Trump.
This poll was conducted March 21-30, with 870 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. For the presidential questions, there was a smaller sample size and a larger margin of error. The two-way presidential race question involved 431 respondents for a margin of error of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points and the questions with multiple candidates involved 430 respondents, also for a margin of error of 5.7 percentage points.
The Wall Street Journal poll released on Wednesday, which gained considerable attention, showed Trump up by +3 in the Keystone State, with 47 percent support to Biden's 44 percent.
Pennsylvania is a tricky one. Of the swing states, it's not one where Trump performs best in the polls. That's not to say he can't win the state or the election, though. Trump won it in 2016 with 48.2 percent to Hillary Clinton's 47.5 percent. Biden won it in 2020, with 50 percent to Trump's 48.8 percent. Other than the 2016 election, Pennsylvania has voted for the Democrat for president since 1992.
Bright blue states of New York and California and the effect they might have on the presidential election, including down-ballot races, have been examined before. New Jersey is another reliable state for Democrats to win, and not necessarily one we ever thought we'd be examining.
On Tuesday, Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill released a poll showing that Democratic Rep. Andy Kim enjoys support from 51 percent of New Jersey Democratic primary voters in his bid for U.S. Senate, while 39 percent are undecided. If Sen. Bob Menendez, the state's current Democratic senator, who has been indicted, indeed runs as an Independent, as he has teased, he only enjoys 9 percent support.
Shockingly enough, though, is how Biden is up only +7, with 46 percent to Trump's 39 percent, while 15 percent are undecided. Even more shocking is how Biden's lead actually shrinks to +5 when other candidates are in the mix, as he enjoys just 41 percent while Trump also sees a drop in support to 36 percent, and RFK Jr. enjoys 8 percent.
📊 New Jersey GE: Emerson/The Hill
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 2, 2024
🟦 Biden 46% (+7)
🟥 Trump 39%
.
🟦 Biden 41% (+5)
🟥 Trump 36%
🟨 RFK Jr 8%
🟨 West 1%
🟩 Stein 1%
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Job approval
Booker: 41-34 (+7)
Biden: 40-47 (-7)
Menendez: 14-62 (-48)
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538: #9 (2.9/3.0) | D38/R24/I38https://t.co/oOTPR1QOZl pic.twitter.com/UVfexPxtmV
The poll does tellingly show how a plurality of respondents, 47 percent, disapprove of how Biden has been handling his job as president. Forty percent say they approve.
The poll was conducted March 26-29 with 1,000 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. For the question about the Senate primary, the poll surveyed 408 respondents, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
New Jersey has voted for the Democrat for president every year since 1988. Biden won the Garden State in 2020 with 57.3 percent to Trump's 41.4 percent. This one really is puzzling, and it will be interesting to see what subsequent polls say about the presidential matchup in New Jersey.
