In recent months, the Trump campaign has talked about purplish-blue and even bright blue states being in play, namely New York and New Jersey when it comes to those blue states. Former and potentially future President Donald Trump as well as Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), a potential vice presidential contender, did appear for a rally in Wildwood back in mid-May, after all. Then Trump was found "guilty" a few weeks later in the New York hush money "trial." More recently, Trump faced President Joe Biden last Thursday in what turned out to be a disastrous debate performance for the unpopular incumbent president who was already behind in the polls. So, what's the deal in New Jersey?
Back in April, we highlighted the shock and skepticism over an Emerson poll from late March that showed Biden only led Trump by +7, a state that's gone for the Democratic presidential candidate every year since 1992. Biden also won there in 2020 by just over 16 percentage points.
Well, get ready for more surprises, because another, more recent poll actually shows Trump with an edge in the Garden State.
According to a co/efficient poll, Trump leads Biden by 41-40 percent among likely voters, with 7 percent supporting other third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Thirteen percent say they're undecided.
📊 NEW JERSEY GE: @coefficientpoll
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 28, 2024
🟥 Trump: 41%
🟦 Biden: 40%
🟨 RFK/3rd Party: 7%
⬜ Undecided:13%
—
Senate
🟦 Kim: 39%
🟥 Bashaw: 33%
🟨 Menendez: 3%
⬜ Undecided: 25%
H2H Ballot -
🟦 Kim: 41%
🟥 Bashaw: 34%
⬜ Undecided: 25%
#237 (1.1/3.0) | June 26-27 | 810 LV… pic.twitter.com/X5CNraZXL4
Even in a state where Biden won by such margins, he's still significantly underwater in his approval ratings. The poll has him with just a 36 percent approval rating, while 56 percent disapprove and 8 percent are unsure. Meanwhile, those margins are much more narrow for Trump. While 50 percent disapprove, 45 percent approve of Trump from when he was president, and only 5 percent are undecided. We've been seeing plenty of nostalgia for Trump from polls lately.
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Trump also enjoys more support from his fellow Republicans than Biden does among his fellow Democrats. While 65 percent of Democrats say they're voting for Biden, 82 percent of Republicans say they're voting for Trump.
This appears to be a constant among various polls, whether it's a national poll or one involving a specific state or states. While 64 percent of Democrats approve of Biden, 26 percent disapprove and 10 percent are unsure. Meanwhile, 88 percent of Republicans approve of Trump, while just 10 percent disapprove and 2 percent are unsure. Even 20 percent of Democrats approve of Trump.
Curiously, Hispanics in particular disapprove of Biden, as just 30 percent say they do. They are less likely than white voters to say they approve of Biden, with 35 percent of such respondents saying they approve of the president. Fifty-one percent of Hispanics and 59 percent of white voters disapprove of Biden, while just 6 percent of white voters are unsure and a significant 19 percent of Hispanics say so. Hispanics are also more likely to approve of Trump than they do Biden, with 41 percent saying they approved of the former president. While 28 percent of Hispanics are undecided on who they'll vote for, 30 percent say they'll vote for Trump and another 28 percent say they'll vote for Biden.
Biden is also deeply unpopular with young voters, ages 18-34 in this specific poll, despite how the demographic tends to favor Democratic candidates. Such a voting bloc has been the topic of conversation for many months now, especially since the demographic could perhaps be up for grabs, although they tend to vote much less than other voting blocs. Trump has a particularly large lead with this age group, of 44-27 percent over Biden.
Just 23 percent of voters who are 18-34 approve of Biden, his least popular demographic by age by far. Over two-thirds of voters in this age group, 68 percent, disapprove of Biden's job performance. Meanwhile, these young voters are more evenly split on Trump, though he does enjoy a plurality of approval at 49 percent, while 47 percent of voters 18-34 say they disapprove of his job performance from when he was president.
What's even more interesting is that this poll was one of the many shared after last Thursday's disastrous debate and was thus part of such a conversation of post-debate analysis, but it was actually conducted right before.
The poll was conducted June 26-27, with 810 likely voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.42 percentage points. The poll included 41 percent of Democrats, 27 percent of Republicans, and 31 percent of those categorized as "other."
One might not ever expect New Jersey to be in play, but the Trump campaign seems to be committed to thinking it is. Stranger things have happened, after all, and this election so far looks to be one for the ages, even as we still wait to see if Biden will remain in the race.
Late last month, as we covered at the time, a poll from The New York Times/Siena College showed that Biden is deeply unpopular, as is Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, with the president leading Trump only by single digits, 47-39 percent.
It's also worth reminding that while Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy was ultimately reelected in 2021, it was a much closer race than people were expecting. Republican Jack Ciattarelli didn't concede until 10 days later, on November 12. Ultimately, Murphy eked out a win with 51.2 percent of the vote to Ciattarelli's 48 percent. Perhaps we could see even more of a shock out of New Jersey, three years later.
Scott Pressler, who has provided invaluable assistance in registering voters, certainly looks to have taken this new poll as a motivator to "keep registering new voters everywhere," as he pointed out "High turnout helps Trump." This is a critical point, as Biden has tended to do better with those most likely to vote, as Guy has pointed out before.
Wow.
— ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) June 28, 2024
Let’s keep registering new voters everywhere.
High turnout helps Trump.
