President Joe Biden's reelection campaign, particularly the Biden HQ X account, has gone to great lengths to appeal to the Latino community. They're going to need to, considering it's a key demographic the president is hemorrhaging support from. Democrats taking former and potentially future President Donald Trump's remarks out of context, especially on immigration, doesn't look to be helping. A new poll shows that Latinos are increasingly favoring tougher policies to crack down on illegal immigration.
Earlier this week, Axios-Ipsos released a poll with Noticias Telemundo. While Ipsos highlighted, "Latino Americans aren’t favorable to Trump or Biden, but feel the Democratic Party better represents them," headlines from Axios included, "Biden's popularity with Latinos drops as Dems' rises," and, perhaps most noteworthy, "Latino support for border wall, deportations jumps."
That latter headline looks to shock Axios. For instance, here's how the write-up reports the results:
Why it matters: The findings suggest former President Trump's calls for more border security — and perhaps his anti-immigrant rhetoric — are registering even among people who may have ties to immigration.
- The findings also reflect the frustration that has made illegal immigration a top election-year issue for many Americans, and shed light on Republicans' recent inroads among Latinos.
- The poll arrives as Trump's racist criticisms of immigrants are raising concerns about violence during the 2024 campaign.
...
Between the lines: A recent study published in the European Political Science Review suggests Latino support for Trump is not growing in spite of his anti-immigrant rhetoric — but because of it.
Those links send readers to other Axios articles detailing fears of Latinos being targeted and claims of fearmongering about immigrants, without mentioning the crimes that these illegal immigrants actually have committed. Across the country, illegal immigrants have been accused of violent crimes such as murder, rape, and sexual crimes against children, including child pornography.
When it comes to the actual results, the Ipsos write-up acknowledges that "The poll also finds that Latinos tend to prefer Trump when it comes to the economy, crime, and immigration, but prefer Biden when it comes to abortion issues," which is what other demographics say in other polls.
That write-up later adds, "Just over half of Latinos say inflation (53%) is the issue they find most worrying. Crime and gun violence (34%) and immigration (28%) fall as second-tier concerns. Less than one in five say political extremism or polarization (16%) is a top concern."
These findings come despite how the Democratic Party has the edge when it comes to questions such as who they feel "Represents people like you," with a plurality, 36 percent, saying the Democratic Party. Similarly, a plurality, 34 percent, also says the Democratic Party "Cares about Latino and Hispanic Americans." Another plurality, 32 percent, also says that the Democratic Party "shares my values."
But then the Republican Party has a slight edge as the party that "is good for the U.S. economy," 25-22 percent. By 22-18 percent, Republicans also have the edge when it comes to which party "is good on crime and public safety." On immigration, a plurality, 32 percent, say "neither" party "is good on immigration," while 23 percent say so about the Democratic Party and 22 percent say so about the Republican Party.
"Among all Latinos, Democrats appear to be closing in on Republicans in two areas the GOP has largely dominated in recent polls — boosting the economy and fighting crime," Axios still points out.
The leads are considerably better for Trump, though. When asked whether Trump or Biden "represents people like you," a plurality, 35 percent, say so. Twenty-nine percent say Biden, and 24 percent say Trump.
Regarding who "is good for the U.S. economy," Trump has a lead of double digits, just as he has had in other polls, with 42 percent. Just 20 percent say Biden is. Regarding who "is good on crime and public safety," Trump not only has the edge with 30 percent, but respondents are more likely to say "neither" candidate, at 24 percent, than they are to say Biden, with 20 percent saying so. On which candidate is considered "good on immigration," a plurality say "neither," 31 percent. However, more say Trump is than Biden, 29-22 percent.
For all their fearmongering about Trump, Axios also acknowledges it's not a good sign for the unpopular incumbent:
- Another troubling sign: Latino support for Trump is rising despite his persistently racist rhetoric about immigrants — and as many Latinos acknowledge worrying that anti-immigrant rhetoric and policies such as Trump's vow to deport 1 million migrants could put them in danger.
While the poll perhaps isn't the greatest for Trump as a political figure and the Republican Party, it's really not good for Biden. "In almost every case, Trump performs better than the Republican brand and Biden performs worse than the Democratic brand," Ipsos Pollster and Senior Vice President Chris Jackson is quoted as saying.
It's also worth wondering if Latinos might vote for Democratic candidates more down ballot but abandon Biden come November. So, what does this mean for November? What Axios mentioned could give us some indication:
Zoom in: Biden's advantage over Trump among all Latinos has fallen from 29 points after Biden's first year in office (53-24) to just 9 points (41-32), amid frustrations over inflation and crime.
- Biden's lead shrinks even further — to 3 points — among Latinos who said they plan to vote in November.
- At least two-thirds of the respondents said neither Biden nor Trump should be their party's nominee.
- The poll didn't ask specifically about independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who's seeking to get on the ballot in most states. But 11% of Latino registered and likely voters said they expect to back neither Biden nor Trump, and 28% said they weren't sure.
Not only does Biden have only a slight edge over Trump, with a significant 28 percent saying they are "unsure," but 70 percent say it's closer to their view that "It’s time for a change within the Democratic Party, and President Biden should not run for re-election in 2024," where it was about the same at 69 percent in October 2022. Sixty-six percent say the same about Trump, down from the 73 percent who said so in October 2022.
As to the specific poll findings mentioned in that one Axios headline, particularly telling is how 42 percent now say they support "Building a wall or fence along the entire U.S.– Mexico border," which is up from just 30 percent in December 2021. Further, 38 percent support "Sending all undocumented immigrants in the U.S. back to their country of origin," up from 28 percent in December 2021.
Sixty-four percent also support "Giving the President the authority to shut U.S. borders if there are too many migrants trying to enter the country," an issue that the president and his administration have been at odds with Republicans over as he already has that authority.
Another key point Biden and his campaign are hammering, turning to political weaponization and repeating debunked talking points, is what a threat to democracy Trump supposedly is. Yet, Biden's lead of who "is good for the health of American democracy" is only a lead of 28-23 percent, with 24 percent saying "neither."
This poll was conducted March 22-28 with 1,012 Latino/Hispanic adults age 18 or older in the United States and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
