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Tipsheet

What Is Gavin Newsom's Endgame in Insisting He's Not Running for President in 2024?

AP Photo/ Aaron Kehoe

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) sure does like to wage national feuds for someone who repeatedly insists he's not running for president in 2024. He did so again in an interview from over the weekend with the Associated Press published earlier on Tuesday. The interview quotes him as saying there's no chance "on God's green earth" he's running in 2024. "I have been pretty consistently-- including recently on Fox News--making the case for his candidacy," Newsom added about President Joe Biden. In the same opening paragraph, though, it's mentioned that Newsom's doubled down on how Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who is running is "weak," "undisciplined," and "will be crushed by Donald Trump," who is running against DeSantis in the Republican presidential primary. 

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The interview left room for Newsom running in 2028. Biden will be term-limited if he is the nominee and wins reelection, and the same goes with Trump if he's elected to his second term in 2024.

As the AP mentioned:

At the same time, the California governor and his team have been in regular contact with Biden and his top aides, including Jen O’Malley Dillon, who managed the president’s 2020 campaign and serves as deputy White House chief of staff. A Biden campaign official said the president’s team coordinates closely with Newsom.

“Newsom is not going to run against Joe Biden and never would. But life is long, and Newsom is one of the prominent national Democrats. It’s part of that role to have these big national battles,” longtime Newsom adviser and friend Nathan Ballard said of the feud with DeSantis.

“There is the 2024 election, and then there is a 2028 election,” Ballard added.

Indeed, veteran Democratic consultant Roy Behr, whose clients included former California Sen. Barbara Boxer, said the two governors are engaged in what could become an early preview of the 2028 presidential contest.

“It’s not inconceivable that four years from now, these two guys could be their respective parties’ nominees,” he said. In tangling with DeSantis, who is 44, the 55-year-old Newsom is building his national brand and visibility and is “certainly trying to create opportunities for himself.”

Newsom makes it a habit of singing Biden's praises, including when it comes to continued revelations and legal woes surrounding Hunter Biden. "Hunter changes nothing," he told the AP. 

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Newsom, at 55, is relatively young for a politician. Biden is 80 and Trump just turned 77 last week. Newsom is also term-limited, as is DeSantis. When it comes to 2028, he could perhaps be looking for an endorsement. Perhaps Newsom isn't willing to wait that long, though. His term, just like DeSantis' term, is up in 2027. Perhaps he may be looking for a cabinet position, then. 

There's brief mention of how many fellow Democrats don't want Biden to run for reelection, as evidenced by polling from the AP, among others. Yet Newsom nevertheless stands by Biden. Even though Newsom isn't challenging Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson are, with the former especially looking to be a formidable opponent, especially in the early states, which Biden could actually lose

History shows that incumbents who face primary challengers win the nomination but go onto lose the presidency, as was the case for Presidents Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980, and George H.W. Bush in 1992. 

When it comes to DeSantis' 2024 presidential run, Newsom not only made note of how DeSantis is trailing Trump, but offered that DeSantis was hurting his chances by going after him.

"He’s taking his eye off the ball," Newsom claimed about DeSantis. "And that’s not inconsistent with my own assessment of him, which is he is a weak candidate, and he is undisciplined and will be crushed by Donald Trump, and will soon be in third or fourth in national polls."

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Although RealClearPolitics (RCP) does show Trump with a lead of 30.8 points, at 51.9 percent support in the primary compared to DeSantis' 21.1 percent, nobody else has double digit support. Former Vice President Mike Pence is polling at 5.8 percent, and former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina is polling at 3.8 percent. Such a claim, then, that DeSantis would slip below those two, is likely hyperbole.

Further, DeSantis went from winning in 2018 with a 0.4 percent margin of victory, to winning reelection last November by 19.4 points, far outpacing expectations. Newsom, running in the much more bluer state, won reelection by 18.4 points. 

Newsom has hit DeSantis on woke issues, especially as it pertains to his obsession with abortion and book bans. The governor has looked to make California a "sanctuary" for abortion up until birth for any reason without legal limit, even using Bible quotes to justify abortion and invite residents of other states to travel there. 

DeSantis has addressed narratives about the "book ban hoax," which involves parents taking issue with sexually explicit books being made available to children. Further, school districts in Newsom's own state have banned classics like Harper Lee's "To Kill a Mockingbird." 

More recently, though, Newsom has hit DeSantis particularly hard for migrants being flown from Florida to California. Despite allegations of kidnapping from Newsom and other California Democrats, video footage proved that the migrants went willingly. For all the complaining Newsom had about such a move from DeSantis, it may just be all talk. 

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DeSantis is traveling to California. Biden had also been in California on Monday, where he spent time with Newsom, as the article mentions. He will also be hosting a fundraiser on Tuesday for the president. 

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