For months before the midterm elections, Republicans were confident that polls showing Democrats poised to blow them out of the water were off by miles. We had reason to be skeptical: pollsters had underestimated Trump’s support in 2016, 2020, and 2024. But this time, the error ran in the opposite direction. The polls weren’t overstating the Democratic wave. They were understating it.
Every poll, ranked by who came closest, and where Iran landed in each one: https://t.co/J0zkqHfL9U
— Justin Hart (@justin_hart) November 5, 2026
According to analysis by Rational Ground, polls identified the correct winner in nearly every major race but underestimated the size of the Democratic victory. In fact, pollsters that published some of the largest Democratic leads were among the most accurate, including AtlasIntel, which put Democrats ahead by 14.1 points, and Tufts/YouGov, which put them ahead by 12 points. So far, Democrats lead the national House vote by roughly 13 points.
While many Republicans insisted the polls were understating their support, the error this time ran in the opposite direction. Final national polling averages put Democrats ahead by roughly nine points, about four percentage points below their current margin.
These figures remain preliminary as counting continues, and electoral results are finalized.
The results, then, also challenge a common Republican explanation for unfavorable polls: that their voters simply don’t respond to them. Many took that as evidence that Republican support was being underestimated. But they may have overlooked another possibility: voters unenthusiastic about answering polls could also be unenthusiastic about voting itself.
Of course, the polls getting it right once after several years of errors does not necessarily mean much against that broader pattern. But Republicans should not be so confident that the polls are wrong that they become blind to other problems in an election.
Since Tuesday, our side has been fighting over where we went wrong. Many have been quick to blame the Iran war, but fewer have been willing to contend with the actual problems the exit polling points to. The perception of corruption, concerns about affordability and the cost of living, dissatisfaction with tariffs, or the objections Americans, including Republicans, have to the botched rollout of immigration enforcement.
Those problems continue to come into focus in national data, and it remains an open question whether conservatives will move to adequately address them.
