It’s that time, folks. We’re down to it. Last-minute GOTV messages and strategies are being deployed. It’s over. Now, everything these campaigns have been building up to on Election Day is being set in motion. If disaster strikes, it strikes. There’s nothing you can do. Now, the campaigns are on cruise control, with last-minute rallies being ironed out as part of the GOTV operation, as debates are behind us. The final arguments are over. But we’re also going to be dealing with a slew of polls that cannot be trusted.
You know the reasons: the GOP is underestimated, which is common, especially in the Trump era, and GOP voters don’t like to be polled. It’s a cautionary tale the media and Democrats still don’t seem to get. If key races are off by just two points on GOP turnout, Democrats lose. Former Trump official David Urban did well to remind CNN of that this week:
💥David Urban *DEFLATES* CNN Panel by pointing out how Midterm polling could be WRONG💥 The anti-Trump panelists were painting a rosy picture for Democrats in the Midterms before Urban rained on their parade with a devastating warning. He asserted the specific CNN polling they were discussing over-sampled Democrats. Urban added that Republicans believe they're "under-sampled" in other polling too. Then he shared an especially brutal fact: Even CNN's own Data Guru Harry Enten has repeatedly reported Republicans tend to out-perform their polling by significant margins. Urban concluded Americans should not be shocked if Republicans win more than expected because small errors in tight races can make all the difference. Urban sucked the wind right out of his fellow panelists' sails. NBC's Steve Kornacki has also highlighted how Democrat leads in crucial Senate races are "tenuous" — and that polls frequently underestimate Trump voters. Frank Luntz similarly cautioned Trump voters "don't respond" to pollster phone calls and said he was "skeptical" that polls were accurate. Moreover, Democrats are extremely unpopular. They're already plotting their retribution campaign — but their planning might be premature. Republicans may have a much better night than anticipated on November 3rd.
— Jason Cohen 🇺🇸 (@JasonJournoDC) October 26, 2026
He asserted the specific CNN polling they were discussing over-sampled Democrats.
Urban added that Republicans believe they're "under-sampled" in other polling too.
Then he shared an especially brutal fact: Even CNN's own Data Guru Harry Enten has repeatedly reported Republicans tend to out-perform their polling by significant margins.
Urban concluded Americans should not be shocked if Republicans win more than expected because small errors in tight races can make all the difference.
Urban sucked the wind right out of his fellow panelists' sails.
NBC's Steve Kornacki has also highlighted how Democrat leads in crucial Senate races are "tenuous" — and that polls frequently underestimate Trump voters.
We’ll know soon enough, but some of these polls are on crack.
Final CNN polls in 2024: • MICHIGAN: Kamala 48-43 • WISCONSIN: Kamala 51-45 • PENNSYLVANIA: Tied 48-48 🔗 https://t.co/AAf0zKcw00
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) October 29, 2026
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