Tuesday night was a brutal reminder for conservatives that victory is never guaranteed and power is never ours to keep. What matters now is how we move forward, and whether we learn the right lessons. After last night’s bloodbath, conservatives need to confront several hard truths if we are to win in 2028.
The first is that economics trumps all else. Conservatives have touted cultural policy as the be-all and end-all of Republican politics. But the national electorate sent Republicans a clear message Tuesday, without good economic policy or, at the very least, good economic results, cultural promises alone are not enough to win their votes.
More telling still, Republican-backed initiatives, including anti-trans measures and voter ID laws, passed in states that otherwise saw blue waves. Voters supported those policies and elected Democrat politicians anyway. You might attribute that split to other factors, but the exit poll data is quite clear.
Checking in on the notion that tariffs are actually super popular and a 47- dimension game of economic history-defying chess that doesn't cost Americans more money, and it's just neocons and globalists who disagree https://t.co/qpLN1HQZBL
— Sunny (@sunnyright) November 4, 2026
This was a referendum on the Trump administration’s economic policy, tariffs included. Since Liberation Day, the president’s approval ratings have dropped dramatically. Tariffs are not some game of 4D chess. They do not magically make things better, and economists were not all wrong to warn against them. They have kept inflation elevated, imposed an additional tax on consumers, and benefited a select few businesses at everyone else’s expense, all while making American industries that depend on imported inputs less competitive.
They have not even delivered the manufacturing revival we were promised. AI, not tariffs, has driven that growth, while tariff-hit manufacturing sectors have continued to decline. Nor is the touted collection of corporate investment pledges some grand achievement either. So far, they have amounted to little more than promises, and promises that may well prove to be empty.
Conservatives need to remember that at its core, the Republican swing in 2024 was a mandate to fix the economy. So far, voters are unhappy with the results. We need better economic policy, and in my view, that means freer markets.
But the other point that needs clarification is that neither the Iran war nor neoconservatism is to blame for last night’s defeat, as political commentators from Benny Johnson to Matt Walsh, and even the vice president, have argued.
https://t.co/eGwp9eihGf
— Phil Magness (@PhilWMagness) November 4, 2026
Ask anyone you know what they don’t like about the Iran war, and you had better believe they are going to start complaining about gas prices. That means they don’t necessarily dislike the Iran war itself; they dislike its downstream economic effects. Do you know what else most Americans don’t like? Being told more than 33 times, yes, that’s an accurate count, that the United States is close to a deal, only for the Iranians to predictably violate the terms and send us back to square one.
The exit poll data even bears this out. The economy ranked high on voters’ list of concerns most polls saying that number landed well over 80 percent of Americans. Do you know what didn’t? Foreign policy, which only four percent of Americans said was a crucial consideration in who they voted for.
@NBCNews exit polls show that overwhelmingly voters say the economy and the state of democracy were the most important issues. Only 4% said foreign policy. I'm confused -- the postliberal Republicans assured me it was the Iran war hawks who caused the blue wave last night. https://t.co/1fn6mD5eaT
— Benjamin Sweetwood (@theAmericanBen) November 4, 2026
For the vice president in particular to blame the loss on the Iran war is a brave take from the man who is himself responsible for dragging it out and turning it into a possible forever war, through a disastrously negotiated MOU and his continued insistence that President Trump negotiate with terrorists rather than take a more aggressive posture.
Americans don’t oppose the Iran war simply because it is a war, or because they want isolationism. They don’t want Iran to get a nuclear weapon, and they believe Operation Epic Fury was entirely necessary. The American electorate’s frustration with the war is purely economic: voters' are angry about its effect on their cost of living. Take high gas prices out of the picture, and I am willing to bet Americans would not, en masse, have named it as a crucial issue in the midterm elections.
This all means two things. First, don’t let isolationists fool you into misdiagnosing the problem. Many of the same people blaming foreign intervention are likely to double down on bad economic policy, calling for the abandonment of Milton Friedman and a retreat from free markets into culturally conservative nationalism and government-controlled economics. That is not a course correction and I can guarantee you now will result in a 2028 Republican defeat.
Second, while conservatives have scoffed at the suggestion that we reexamine our principles, last night should force some reflection.
Free markets remain a principle worth standing on. Cutting regulation, improving competition, and strengthening the connection between people’s efforts and their economic success would give Americans a greater stake in, and more control over, their financial lives. That is exactly what Americans have been begging for. Instead, we have encouraged the belief that their economic fortunes are beyond their control and that only the government can fix them. There is a role for government here, but not the one either party keeps promising. It needs to get the hell out of the way.
