Trump takes a commanding lead in Michigan, as reported by Bloomberg and CNN polls showing Trump ahead of Biden by 4 to 10 points there. Even if Biden were to win several other swing states, realistically Biden cannot be reelected if he loses Michigan.
A headline in liberal Newsweek refers to this big shift in Michigan as a “nightmare” for Biden. The recent auto-workers strike was supposed to help Biden as he joined its picket line, but instead it boosted Trump by establishing him as the true champion of workers for opposing electric vehicles.
General Motors announced more layoffs on Friday of 1,300 auto-workers in Michigan, including those assembling its soon-to-be-discontinued Camaro muscle car, because of the push to electric cars. Liberals’ regulatory-driven shift to electric vehicles, which Trump opposes, is predicted to end an estimated 40% of auto-worker jobs.
Michigan’s economy is heavily dependent on auto manufacturing, and Biden’s destruction of it is similar to liberals’ war on coal in West Virginia, which has rendered that state unwinnable by Biden or any Democrat. Its incumbent U.S. Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) announced he will not seek reelection because, thanks to Trump, a Democrat can no longer be elected statewide in West Virginia.
Trump is winning over many union and women voters in Michigan, leaping to a 50-point lead there over his Republican primary challengers. The Michigan primary is pivotal because it has moved up to fifth position, after Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada, and is the last to define the race shortly before the mammoth 16-state, Super Tuesday primary in early March.
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Michigan has a robust third-party system, which in 2016 drew nearly 6% of the votes as Trump then defeated Hillary Clinton. In 2020, there was a weak field of third-party candidates who garnered only 2% of the vote there.
This time, a strong field of third-party candidates led by the famous Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the progressive activist Cornel West, and the Green Party’s Jill Stein, is expected to surpass the combined third-party vote total in 2016. Many in Michigan are from the Middle East, and have turned against Biden for his mishandling of the Gaza crisis.
The odds of a criminal trial of Trump prior to the election have diminished due to Trump’s recent halting (for now) of the biased federal proceeding against him in D.C. In addition, the Wall Street Journal reported new polling last week which suggests that even a federal conviction of Trump would have only a marginal effect of a few points in voting, not enough for Biden to overcome his immense deficit that he has now in Michigan.
Democrats lack a replacement for Biden, as DeSantis destroyed Newsom in their recent debate on Fox which included DeSantis holding up a “poop map” of human waste from the homeless which litters San Francisco under Newsom’s leadership. Michelle Obama lacks the temperament to run for president, and would seem too much like Hillary Clinton’s unsuccessful campaign on her husband’s popularity.
Democrats have controlled Michigan’s government since 2022 and have ramped up cannabis sales with unlimited licensure and low pot taxes such that it has the highest per capita spending on marijuana, more than three times greater than California. Marijuana sales are expected to surpass $3 billion in Michigan this year on a population of only 10 million people, averaging $300 per adult in annual spending on pot.
Residents are moving out in droves, making Michigan so desperate to stem population losses that its Democratic leadership proposes paying people to move there. Nearly 40% of young adults in Michigan plan to move out within the next decade.
In response, a population council was convened under Democrat leadership to try to stem the exodus. Last week its liberal proposals were chock-full of failed Democrat approaches, and only one Republican legislator on the council voted against it.
Another Republican, a legislator from the Upper Peninsula where residents are referred to as “Yoopers,” said that the Democratic population proposals were so misguided that Yoopers might consider “closing the bridge and exploring statehood.” Obama won the Upper Peninsula in 2008 but it voted for Trump in both 2016 and 2020.
“Grocery prices are high; electric bills are high; Democrats are actively fighting to raise income taxes; and now the governor is using these proposals to rationalize tax hikes and force regular people to foot the bill for unnecessary new programs,” said Rep. Gary Prestin (R-Cedar River).
Next-door Ohio, which like Michigan depends on auto industry jobs, has Trump surging to a 12-14% point lead over Biden in an Emerson College poll. A Trump landslide in Ohio could cost Democrats a U.S. Senate and two Ohio Supreme Court seats.
John and Andy Schlafly are sons of Phyllis Schlafly (1924-2016) and lead the continuing Phyllis Schlafly Eagles organizations with writing and policy work.
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