No matter which poll shows which party is ahead, neither can afford to get complacent about the 2024 election. Democrats allowed themselves to do so in 2016 with Hillary Clinton, as did Republicans with the 2022 midterms as they expected a red wave. We all know how those elections turned out. It's been just over a week since President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race. He endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him, not longer after his X account signified he was dropping out of the race. As Harris gets closer to becoming the official nominee, she has seen a bit of a boost in the polls with her favorable rating. With just over three months away until the election, is there cause for concern?
Our own Kurt Schlichter has posted about this phenomenon, along with some words of wisdom, especially regarding the excited reactions about Harris in real-time.
Kamala is going to get a bump. The relief from getting rid of Biden. The novelty of it. She’s absolutely going to get a lot of attention and draw some crowds. And she could win this election. That’s why Patriots have to work 10 times as hard now. https://t.co/rGYDFINVuM
— Kurt Schlichter (@KurtSchlichter) July 23, 2024
All the stuff you are freaking out about here on social media is not remotely within the consciousness of normal people.
— Kurt Schlichter (@KurtSchlichter) July 27, 2024
Harris is getting a bump because she is something new. She will not be new tomorrow, but tomorrow the border will still be open and people will still need to…
This supposed "bounce" comes from recent polls and analyses of ones already released. For example, "Harris sees boost in favorability after Biden drops out of race: POLL," read a Sunday headline from ABC News.
Per an ABC News/Ipsos poll, 43 percent of U.S. adults have a favorable view of Harris, while 42 percent have an unfavorable view. Last week, those numbers were 35 and 46 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, 52 percent of adults have an unfavorable view of former and potentially future President Donald Trump, while 36 percent have a favorable view of him.
ABC News also speaks to how Independents feel about Harris, in that 44 percent of this key demographic have a favorable view of Harris, while 40 percent have an unfavorable view. Last week, those numbers were at 28-47 percent.
While this poll's release doesn't discuss who respondents would actually vote for, polls that do speak to such findings show Trump earning more support from Independents.
Respondents also look to be more enthusiastic if Harris were to become the nominee compared to Trump being the nominee. When asked, "How would you feel if Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic nominee for president?" the enthusiasm ratings are 50-48 percent, compared to 60-39 percent for Trump being the Republican nominee.
The write-up also speaks to that higher enthusiasm for Harris over Trump:
Harris has an edge over former President Donald Trump when it comes to how much enthusiasm Americans feel for them as nominees. Forty-eight percent of Americans say they would feel enthusiastic if Harris becomes the Democratic nominee. Fewer, 39%, say they are enthusiastic about Trump being the Republican nominee.
Enthusiasm for Harris as the Democratic nominee peaks among Democrats (88%) and Black Americans (70%). Forty-nine percent of independents express enthusiasm for Harris, whereas only 31% of independents are enthusiastic about Trump.
That could be because Harris is the new candidate for Democrats to rally around. It might also be because as the ABC News write-up mentions hidden away in its methodology section, the poll includes an oversampling of black and Hispanic respondents, those very respondents described as being particularly enthusiastic if Harris were to become the nominee.
"This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted using the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® July 26-27, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,200 U.S. adults with oversamples of Black and Hispanic respondents weighted to their correct proportions in the general population. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.0 points, including the design effect, for the full sample," the methodology section reads in part.
In his analysis for the Washington Post from earlier on Monday, Aaron Blake referenced this poll and others. He highlights:
- The ABC/Ipsos poll is the first quality poll in years to show more Americans viewing her positively (43 percent) than negatively (42 percent), though the difference is well within the margin of error.
- That same poll showed Harris improving by 16 points with independents — from 28 percent favorable in mid-July to 44 percent favorable today.
The poll is within the margin of error, as Blake acknowledges, but it ought not be swept under the rug that polls have been showing that the American people have an unfavorable view of her. An NBC News poll from last year showed that she was the most unpopular vice president since it had been asking the question, though Harris was in denial about it.
What Blake wrote later in his analysis is also crucial:
As with all early polling conducted in the days after the Democrats’ switcheroo, it’s worth emphasizing that it’s early. Harris is surely in a honeymoon period that might not last, particularly as attention turns to some of the positions she took during her 2020 Democratic presidential primary campaign.
It’s also important to note that, even with the improved image of the top of the Democratic ticket, Harris’s favorable numbers are mostly similar to Trump’s in these polls. Trump appears to have gotten a bit of his own bump after the assassination attempt against him and the Republican National Convention, and he was already generally more popular than he was during his presidency. And the race both nationally and in swing states is very close.
For all of the positive polls put out there, there are other parts of that same poll that may not be so flattering to the vice president. There are also other polls out there that may show a completely different result, making the presidential race that much more important to keep an eye on.
Last week, for instance, we covered a Quinnipiac University poll showing Trump up double digits with young voters ages 18-34 against Harris, 58-39 percent. Meanwhile, a YouGov poll had shown Harris up among voters ages 18-29 by 58-33 percent.
That same Quinnipiac poll also showed Trump at a new high with his own favorable ratings, while Harris and Biden suffered from particularly high unfavorable ratings.
General Election - Age 18-29 @YouGov Poll:
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 23, 2024
🔵 Harris 58% (+25)
🔴 Trump 33% @QuinnipiacPoll
🔴Trump 58% (+19)
🔵 Harris 39%
In her VIP piece for Sunday, Sarah offered the perspective of how the situation still looks "bleak" for the Democrats in 2024, with Trump enjoying an edge in polls overall.
Harris's own record is also not on her side. The Trump-Vance campaign and Republicans may need to put in more work than they'd normally have to, given how the mainstream media is looking to cover up for the vice president and likely Democratic nominee, especially when it comes to her role as the border czar. For now, at least, it looks like they're aware of what they need to do. This is especially true on immigration, though that's not the only issue addressed.
On Monday afternoon, the Trump-Vance campaign sent out a press release titled, "DANGEROUSLY LIBERAL: Kamala's Border Crisis Isn't Just Incompetence, It's All By Design." Another email, this one from the Make America America Great Again, Inc PAC was titled, "Kamala Harris Admits It: 'I Am A Radical.'"
One of the most recent posts from the Team Trump X accounts focuses on how "Kamalanomics is Bidenomics," for instance.
Kamalanomics is Bidenomics.
— Team Trump (Text TRUMP to 88022) (@TeamTrump) July 29, 2024
Kamala Harris cast the tie-breaking vote on massive spending bills that caused the inflation crisis.
It all ends on Day One of President Trump's next term. pic.twitter.com/Vw4sG8R7qH
That GovTrack took down its page about Harris being ranked the most liberal senator for 2019 and one of the least bipartisan ones doesn't change the fact that she was, and she has the liberal record to show for it.
This election looks to be a close and competitive one, just as it looked to potentially be with a rematch between Biden and Trump. Whether or not voters make a decision based on firsts, such as Harris being the first woman president, with Zoom calls segregated by race leaning into that, or if they heed warnings about her liberal record could make it even closer.
