When the 2024 presidential race was between former and potentially future President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, there was considerable chatter regarding Trump making inroads with young voters in the 18-34 crowd who tend to vote for Democrats. There were enough polls suggesting that could be the case, especially with how unhappy the demographic was with Biden. However, these voters tend to be less likely to vote. Now that Biden is officially out, and Vice President Kamala Harris is the presumptive Democratic nominee, people are taking a closer look at the polls analyzing a Trump vs. Harris matchup, and how the candidates fare with young voters.
The latest Quinnipiac poll has prompted considerable chatter. In a head-to-head matchup, Trump leads Harris by 49-47 percent. With third-party candidates on the ballot, Trump leads Harris by 45-41 percent, with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. enjoying 6 percent support.
A particular point of interest is how Trump is close to 20 points ahead of Harris among registered voters ages 18-34, by 58-39 percent.
#New General Election Poll - Age 18 - 34
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 23, 2024
🔴 Trump 58% (+19)
🔵 Harris 39%
Quinnipiac #B - 7/21
The poll also asked voters who they would support in a matchup between Trump and Biden.
Trump similarly led 48-45 percent in a head-to-head matchup and 44-39 percent when third-party candidates were included, with RFK, Jr. earning 8 percent support.
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In that scenario, Trump similarly led Biden by large margins among young voters, 47-26 percent. While Trump might have led Biden by bigger margins overall, young voters are particularly interested in choosing him over Harris. Other polls have shown Harris doing even more poorly than Biden in hypothetical matchups.
A headline from Quinnipiac about the poll states, "Trump vs. Harris Too Close To Call," and the write-up mentions, "There is no clear leader as the lead is within the margin of error."
"The dramatic reset at the top of the Democratic ticket does little to move the race as Vice President Harris enters the fray with numbers similar to President Biden," Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy is quoted as saying.
This is hardly the only finding from the poll that spells bad news for Harris. Her favorable ratings are particularly poor, while Trump's favorable ratings are at a high for Quinnipiac polling.
The favorable versus unfavorable ratings for Trump are pretty split, at 46 percent and 49 percent respectively, making for a -3 percent favorable rating. That's a far cry from previous polls. Tying this back to young voters, Trump has a net favorable rating, as 47 percent of 18-34-year-olds have a favorable view of him, while 40 percent have an unfavorable view.
"The former President survives an assassination attempt and gains ground on favorability, but post attack, makes no headway in being seen as a unifier," Malloy also says, tying Trump's favorable ratings to the assassination attempt against him on July 13.
Harris, meanwhile, has a net favorable rating of -14 percent, as just 37 percent of voters have a favorable view of her, while 51 percent have an unfavorable view. Her numbers among young voters are even more catastrophic, given just 20 percent of voters ages 18-34 have a favorable view of her, while 55 percent do not. More voters in this demographic, 24 percent, say they "haven't heard enough" about her than say they have a favorable view.
Quinnipiac poll: Favorability Ratings
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 22, 2024
Trump
Favorable: 46%
Unfavorable: 49%
Net: -3%
Trump's highest net favorability rating in the history of Quinnipiac University polling
—
Trump's net favorability trends
Dec. 2022: -28%
Dec. 2023: -13%
JULY 2024: -3%
——
Harris… https://t.co/Q1gIXgXOp2 pic.twitter.com/N5ZLneJWrc
Regarding Biden's favorable ratings, he's at a -19 percent net favorable among voters, given that 38 percent have a favorable view while 57 percent have an unfavorable view. Among young voters, just 21 percent have a favorable view, while a whopping 67 percent have an unfavorable view.
The poll was conducted July 19-21 with 1,257 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. Biden dropped out of the race on Sunday afternoon, July 21, via a letter shared to his X account.
During a press call earlier on Tuesday, Donald Trump revealed when taking questions that he believes his chances against Harris versus Biden are "pretty similar," given that the polls "are virtually identical." Trump did emphasize, however, that she's "much more radical" than Biden, including and especially when it comes to protecting the southern border.
Such results, particularly among young people, are a significant blow to Harris' campaign. Among the concerns from Biden's fellow Democrats about him remaining in the race was the fear of an enthusiasm gap, and it was hoped that his departure from the race would lead to more enthusiasm.
Activists like David Hogg and Harry Sisson have supposedly claimed they're seeing more support for Harris from young voters.
I’ve never seen such a quick shift in my life
— David Hogg 🟧 (@davidhogg111) July 23, 2024
Nobody is buying it Harry. pic.twitter.com/SvsumWCJHy
— Defiant L’s (@DefiantLs) July 22, 2024
Why is everyone running the same story? pic.twitter.com/Jwqmdx0peg
— Defiant L’s (@DefiantLs) July 23, 2024
According to RealClearPolling, which includes the Quinnipiac poll, Trump currently has a +1.5 lead over Harris in the polling averages, with 47.8 percent to her 46.3 percent support.
