One of the reasons why former and potentially future President Donald Trump looks to have an edge against President Joe Biden for the November election is because of his lead on key issues such as inflation and the economy, as well as immigration. That doesn't appear to be what Democrats want to focus on, though, whether it be the base or their elected officials. Rather, their pet issue involves so-called "threats to democracy," even more so than abortion. After this recent poll release, voters can likely expect to hear much more about it.
On Wednesday, Cygnal put out their June poll of likely general election voters. A release highlighted in part how "'Threats to Democracy' New Weapon of Choice for Dems." In addition to such a takeaway, the poll also shows Trump leading Biden by 46.5-44.5 percent in a head-to-head showdown, which is actually an increase in his lead.
Among voters overall, "inflation and the economy" is the top priority, with 27.9 percent saying so. "Illegal immigration" comes in second, with 19.7 percent saying so, and 15.2 percent saying "threats to democracy."
Republicans are evenly split on immigration (37 percent) and inflation/economy (36 percent), while Independents are most concerned about inflation/economy, with 29 percent saying so. For Democrats, "threats to democracy," comes in first, with 27 percent saying it's their top priority. Inflation/economy is in second at 18 percent.
That's not entirely surprising, given how we've heard ad nauseum about the issue from Biden, his campaign, and fellow Democrats. But, such numbers really highlight how devoted the base is to such an issue while leaving other issues to the wayside, even if it puts them at odds with fellow Americans. For instance, while illegal immigration is the second highest top priority overall, it's the lowest for Democrats, with just 2 percent saying it's their top priority.
Lead pollster Mitch Brown chimed in om what effect that might have. "Abortion has been replaced with threats to democracy as the main messaging weapon against Republicans. It is a more nebulous term with no clear definition from voter to voter which gives the left more flexibility with messaging and attack ads," he's quoted as saying in the release. "We’re also watching Independent voters very closely since they list threats to democracy and healthcare (an issue otherwise largely dormant in previous cycles) among their top issues. These are people who mostly view both parties as extreme and are more motivated by issues more than the negatives of candidates, but their erratic behavior in the polls poses a significant challenge for campaigns that are under water with their base and swing voters."
It's particularly noteworthy that Brown framed it as being "the main messaging weapon against Republicans," and one that's "a more nebulous term with no clear definition from voter to voter which gives the left more flexibility with messaging and attack ads." That's certainly how Democrats have been using the issue.
The release also notes that "Abortion has dropped to a new low among voters’ top issue priorities. Democrats’ plans to weaponize the issue against Republicans shows little signs of having any direct impact on the 10-15 percent of voters across five states who will decide this election."
Overall, abortion is the least selected issue, with 4.1 percent of voters saying it's their top priority. Even among Democrats, only 8 percent say it's their top issue, behind threats to democracy, inflation/economy, and healthcare, climate change, and gun control. Those last three issues each enjoy 11 percent support of Democratic voters saying they're the top priority.
The poll's "Insights & Analysis" show even worse news, specifically "a bad omen" for Democrats on abortion and other issues:
Abortion (4%) falls to the least important priority for voters five months out from the election, a bad omen for Democrats hoping the issue will be their golden ticket to the WhiteHouse.
- Inflation and the economy are on the top of voters’ minds again, followed by illegal immigration as the impact of Biden’s failed policies is felt.
Other polls have shown Biden to have the lead on who voters trust over Trump on the issue of abortion, though might mean play much of a role, if any, if it really remains that low a priority for voters. Biden and his fellow Democrats have repeatedly hammered the abortion issue--even turning to misleading narratives--for months. They've continued to do so, especially with show votes on contraception in the Democratically-controlled Senate.
In addition to the Biden HQ X account posting such pro-abortion narratives at length, the X accounts for Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris tend to do so multiple times a day as well.
When talking about "threats to democracy," Biden talks especially but not only about January 6. At the same time, he's also brought up the disputed narrative about Trump referring to fallen soldiers as "suckers" and "losers," and has claimed in both 2020 and 2024 that Trump was speaking about white supremacists at the Unite the Right rally when talking about "fine people on both sides." On more recent incidents, Democrats keep claiming Trump would be a dictator on "day one" in regards to comments made "in jest," and that there would be "a bloodbath" if he lost, when the full context clearly shows Trump means in the economy sense.
Talk about a "weapon" indeed, and a false one.
For all of this focus, though, this doesn't look like a tactic that is likely to work, at least not as much as Biden and Democrats are banking on it. Polls have shown that Biden is perceived as the one who will "weaken democracy" more. An April poll from The New York Times/Siena College showed the same amount of voters believe Trump and Biden will be "good for democracy," though a plurality say Trump and Biden will be "bad for democracy. Biden had an edge in that less say so about him, though perhaps not as much of an edge as he would expect.
Brown also provided a statement for Townhall on the matter. "Democrats are really great at stoking grievance. They are very much the party that positions itself against people or issues rather than casting a vision for a better future. This doom and gloom playbook has moved to the more nebulous term 'threats to democracy,'" he pointed out. "But there's a problem with that pivot, Biden hasn't moved the needle in a positive direction for people who do care about threats to democracy. Just look at our data showing 40 percent of Independents who believe Trump's trials actually weaken democracy. That critical constituency won't resonate with Dems' attacks on Republicans when it's they who are prosecuting their political opponents."
While 35.8 percent, a plurality, indeed expected Trump to be convicted in the hush money "trial," as he was on May 31, a plurality, at 38.9 percent believe it will "weaken democracy." This indeed includes 40 percent of Independents. Further, another plurality, at 40.7 percent, believe Trump's conviction "helps" his chances in November.
The Cygnal poll also shows that neither party is seen as more extreme, as 40.3 percent of voters each say the Democratic Party and the Republican Party are considered to be "more extreme."
As the poll highlights, with original emphasis:
For the first time since February, the Republican Party is not seen as more extreme than the Democrat Party. As the label of extremism has eased for Republicans by 2 points, it has grown more applicable to Democrats by the same amount.
- In May, black voters viewed the Republican Party as more extreme by a 31-point margin. Republicans closed that gap by 25 points in the last month alone.
- College-educated women are 7% more sour on the Democrat Party compared to May, as are college-educated men (+).
- By a 10-point margin, voters, including a plurality (37%) of college-educated voters, are apt to believe the convictions will help Trump’s chances of re-election this November.
Returning to the top issues, we keep talking about Trump's lead on issues such as the economy because this is a takeaway seen in poll after poll. This also speaks to how and why respondents think more fondly of the Trump presidency as well, including and especially on the economy.
"Voters believe Trump’s policies are better for their lives than Biden’s by a 5-point margin, including a plurality of independents (38%) and Hispanics (44%)," Cygnal so aptly put it.
"As you think about the 2024 general election for President, which candidate’s policies are better for you and your life," the poll asked respondents. On that Trump-Biden policy contrast, 45.9 percent say they prefer Trump, while 40.8 percent say they prefer Biden. As is also the case in countless other polls, Trump enjoys more support from his fellow Republicans than Biden does from his fellow Democrats.
Ninety-two percent of Republicans, including 80 percent who say "definitely," say Trump. Eighty percent of Democrats, including 68 percent who say "definitely," say Biden. The poll also similarly looks to the who voted for Trump and Biden in 2020, with 93 percent of those who vote for Trump in 2020 sticking by him, including 82 percent who say "definitely." Eighty-one percent of those who voted for Biden in 2020 stick by him as having the better policies, including 63 percent who say "definitely."
The poll was conducted June 4-6 with 1,500 general election likely voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.53 percentage points.
