While many are looking to 2024 elections on many fronts, from the chaos on the world stage to the emergence of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as an independent presidential candidate, there's still very important statewide elections taking place this year, next month in fact. Yesterday's VIP piece examined the Kentucky gubernatorial race, where Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear has a lead over Republican nominee Daniel Cameron. In Virginia, both the House of Delegates and state Senate are up for reelection, and how it all goes could determine whether Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin operates with a completely united Republican legislature, or perhaps a completely Democratic one.
Republicans pulled off an impressive feat when Youngkin was elected in 2021, becoming the first Republican elected governor since Bob McDonnell in 2009. Winsome Earle-Sears was also elected as lieutenant governor, and Jason Miyares was elected as attorney general, both of them Republicans. Miyares, who unseated former Attorney General Mark Herring (D), told Townhall not long after the election that Herring had been the first attorney general to be defeated in his reelection bid since 1885.
Other Republican candidates rode Youngkin's coattails enough for the party to take control of the House of Delegates, with a 52-48 margin. The state Senate was not yet at the time up for reelection in 2021, and Democrats currently hold a 21-19 majority, though Earle-Sears is a tiebreaking vote.
Youngkin's Spirit of Virginia PAC has not only raised funds for Republican candidates, but also raised awareness about extremist Virginia Democrats and their candidates.
One issue that the Democrats have been particularly extreme on, as Townhall has covered at length before, has been on abortion. Democratic candidates have taken to putting out misleading ads on supposed abortion bans that their Republican, pro-life opponents support. Further, Democrats hide how their party supports abortion up until birth for any reason with no legal limit, to the point where they looked to get a constitutional amendment passed that would do just that.
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Virginia Democrats also refuse to support requiring that medical care be provided to a baby born alive from an abortion, and even turn that issue against their Republican opponents. This was the case last month with an ad from Democrat Joel Griffin against Del. Tara Durant, a Republican, with regards to their state Senate race.
This Democrat nominee for Virginia State Senate claims that his Republican opponent @TaraDurantVA voted for a bill that would ""put doctors in jail for performing abortions."
— Greg Price (@greg_price11) September 26, 2023
The bill he cites would have required that a baby BORN ALIVE during an abortion get medical care. https://t.co/WMK669gWFi pic.twitter.com/JKBZJaNc5h
Griffin has since doubled down on making the misleading claims about Durant, with another ad on Tuesday, this one also pointing to a Facebook post of as his supposed proof, though the post says no such thing as he claims.
In contrast to radical Democrats, Youngkin has repeatedly made his stance on abortion clear. When Dobbs v. Jackson was handed down in June last year to overturn Roe v. Wade, the governor expressed support for limiting abortions at 15-weeks with exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother, and tasked the House of Delegates with finding a consensus.
Although mainstream media outlets have strayed from pointing out the truth so directly about the Democrats' position on abortion, the role it will likely play in the election has been the subject of recent reports.
Last Saturday, POLITICO published a piece "Should you believe the polls or the special elections? There’s a third way: Virginia," which mentioned abortion at length. The Hill also put out a piece on Virginia statewide elections and abortion on Monday," Virginia elections put messaging on abortion, crime to the test."
Virginia Democrats also doubled down on their fearmongering claims about Republicans looking to ban abortion with a memo to donors that was first shared with The Hill earlier on Tuesday.
"For Democrats to succeed, it will take a combination of elements: (A) Voters have to know the consequences of total MAGA control – abortion bans, weaker gun laws, higher costs, fewer voting rights, and more; (B) Black, Latino, and young voters across the commonwealth have to be energized and engaged to elect Democrats and reject Republican extremism; (C) Suburban voters, specially suburban women, will be critical to stopping the MAGA takeover in Richmond, Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia," the memo read in part.
Democrats are not merely extreme on abortion. State Sen. Scott Surovell, a Democrat in a safe seat, posted what may be the worst take on the Israel-Hamas conflict by placing blame on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and equating the chaos caused by terrorist attacks with the chaos caused in the House as a result of ousting Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House last week.
While Surovell is in a safe seat, it's also telling that he's regarded as fitting to be the vice chair of the Virginia Senate Democratic Caucus.
The division and distraction created by Netanyahu's judicial power grab created created an opportunity for these attacks in the same way House Republicans' civil war creates opportunities for other country's to take advantage American disorganization https://t.co/H7iIEHUtKn
— Senator Scott Surovell (@ssurovell) October 8, 2023
Although both POLITICO and The Hill glossed over education, that too has been a major issue. POLITICO even acknowledged that Youngkin prioritizing the issue helped him defeat former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D-VA), who had won in 2013 and ran again in 2021 since the state constitution bars governors from serving two consecutive terms. Exit polls proved it was a winning issue for Youngkin as well.
As that piece mentioned:
For Democrats, that means a big focus on abortion. Republicans, meanwhile, are talking about crime and education — two major themes of the national party’s campaign in last year’s midterms — while folding in critiques of Biden’s handling of the national economy.
...
Similarly, Republicans are reprising Youngkin’s education-focused messaging, which propelled him to a narrow victory over former Gov. Terry McAuliffe two years ago. And especially in districts within the Washington media market, GOP candidates are campaigning on fighting crime — a test of how the issue might play in the nation’s suburbs next year.
In some ways, education is once again an issue in September and October 2023 as it was in September and October 2021 in that Loudoun County, a rich suburb in Northern Virginia is once more finding itself in the news. A then 14-year-old male student who liked to wear skirts raped and sexually assaulted female classmates in the bathroom and was then moved around the district. That young man was later found guilty or entered a plea deal on the charges.
While McAuliffe was among those blatantly disregarded these and other concerns to do with education, Young, Earle-Sears, and Miyares rose to the occasion. The former superintendent, Scott Ziegler, has since been fired and was also charged by Miyares-backed prosecutors with various misdemeanors of using his position to retaliate against a special education teacher who had shared information about how sexual assaults--not merely the ones mentioned above--were handled in the district. Ziegler was found guilty of a misdmeanor late last month, as we wrote about at the time. Sentencing is in January, and he has another trial in February.
.@TerryMcAuliffe communications director @christinafreund out with a statement responding to Youngkin’s call to investigate the Loudoun County School Board— accuses Youngkin of “angry Trumpian conspiracy theories and constant threats against public school funding” #VAGov pic.twitter.com/XqBoFK8l9A
— Julia Manchester (@JuliaManch) October 20, 2021
Also last month, Youngkin pardoned Scott Smith, who had been arrested after he erupted at a school board meeting in June 2021 over the board covering up the sexual assaults. His daughter had been raped by that male classmate. Democrats, including Biberaj and Surovell, showed their true colors by going after Youngkin for daring to use his pardoning power when it comes to Smith.
Smith had been charged by the county's embattled, Soros-backed Commonwealth Attorney Buta Biberaj, who sought jail time for the father. Smith was sentenced to 10 days in jail, though the sentence was suspended, contingent on a year of good behavior.
As our sister site of Twitchy covered late last week, Smith has filed a Title IX lawsuit in federal court against the Board of Education with Loudoun County Public Schools.
https://t.co/t4naBylZwT pic.twitter.com/aF80LGfPxS
— Scott T Smith (@scottsm25937858) October 5, 2023
The governor has embraced early voting, too, with an initiative known as Secure Your Vote Virginia. Early voting started on September 20 in the commonwealth.
This comes as recently released polls show the generic ballot to be close, including a Founders Insight poll released on Monday showing Democrats and Republicans evenly split when it comes to the General Assembly ballot, at 45 to 44 percent. That edge is within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.21 percentage points. The poll surveyed 931 general election voters October 2-3.
Another poll, from the University of Mary Washington Center for Leadership and Media Studies, also showed a close split. When likely voters are surveyed, Democrats and Republicans each have 42 percent support. The poll included 771 likely voters, who were surveyed September 5-11. The margin of error for that subset is plus or minus 3.5 percentgae points.
It's worth pointing out, though, that it's the districts in play that matter. Millions have come pouring in for what are surely to be close races. Further, Republicans to be doing better than they've done previously when it comes to early voting, almost certainly to do with the initiative mentioned above.
In addition to his fundraising abilities and other ways he can campaign for Republicans, Youngkin's approval rating helps as well. A Roanoke College poll from August had him at a 51 percent approval rating. President Joe Biden fares much worse in the poll, with a 40 percent approval rating.
A Morning Consult poll released in July showed Youngkin with 57 percent support. Although he comes in at the 22nd most popular governor, going solely by approval rating, that 57 percent approval rating has him tying to be the 10th most popular governor, along with Govs. Joe Lombardo (R-NV), Doug Burgum (R-ND), Greg Gianforte (R-MT), Mike Dewine (R-OH), and Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI).
That being said, if Republicans do lose control of the House of Delegates and/or fail to regain control of the state Senate, it wouldn't be too far-fetched to blame Democrats' fearmongering and misleading claims on abortion. While it isn't worth writing off as a definite win or lose, and nothing can be taken for granted, Youngkin's numbers as well as dedication make the Virginia statewide elections look pretty decent when it comes to Republicans' chances.
