Earlier this month, a reported list of names on the shortlist to be former and potentially future President Donald Trump's running mate was released. There were the expected names, especially in the top four: North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, and Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina. There were more names further down the list, which we'd heard before. There's also been chatter about Trump picking a completely different name, especially when reports mention that only Trump knows who he's picking.
One of the top names not on the list is Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin. As Fox News reported last Thursday, Trump told its reporter Aishah Hasnie, "I think I could consider that," when asked if Youngkin could be on the list:
The convention will be held from July 15-18 in Milwaukee. Trump said that Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, could be on the short list.
"And I think I could consider that," he said. "Yes. I haven't been asked that question, but he would be on that list."
It looks like Youngkin is indeed on that list, as he and Trump had just met, though they reportedly did not discuss the position of Trump's running mate during their meeting, per the Daily Mail. Another detail about Trump's pick is that he "sort of has a pretty good idea" who it will be and he will probably announce his pick at the Republican National Convention.
Youngkin has been on some lists of speculated names, but not all. The purpose of a running mate has arguably changed in recent years regarding how much a nominee relies on him or her to help the presidential ticket. There's been talk that Trump should pick a black man or a woman – Sen. Scott would fulfill that, as would the one woman on the list, House Republican Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik of New York. But Trump might not go down that route, either. Townhall Senior Columnist Kurt Schlichter has highlighted running mate selections a few times now, referencing Youngkin in his recent analysis from last Thursday.
Although he is a white male, Youngkin makes sense for many reasons. North Dakota, Ohio, Florida, and South Carolina are no longer states in play, though Ohio and Florida may once have been swing states. Virginia, now a purplish-blue state that has elected the Democratic nominee every election since 2008, could very well be in play.
As Guy covered on Monday, noting it's important to take it with a grain of salt, Trump looks to have a very slight edge in Virginia and another potential swing state, Minnesota. The "lead" of +0.2 in Virginia is almost nonexistent, while Trump has a lead in Minnesota of +1.6, per Decision Desk's HQ's/The Hill's aggregate of polls from last Friday. RealClearPolitics also designated those states as "Toss-Ups."
Donald Trump leads Joe Biden by 0.2% in Virginia and 1.6% in Minnesota according to Decision Desk HQ/@thehill's latest polling averages. pic.twitter.com/6vf3evh9Uq
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) June 14, 2024
Even if Trump's "lead" is bigger in Minnesota than Virginia, the latter may be a more likely win for Trump. This is even if Youngkin is ultimately not on the ticket, since he can likely be counted on to campaign for Trump. Minnesota's state government, meanwhile, is controlled by a Democratic trifecta. However, anything looks possible regarding this strange 2024 election cycle, especially with how close Trump came to winning the state in 2016.
When Youngkin was elected in 2021, he was the first Republican to achieve that feat since Bob McDonnell's election in 2009. His coattails helped his fellow Republicans Winsome Earle Sears and Jason Miyares get elected as lieutenant governor and attorney general, respectively. Sears was the first black woman elected to the position while Miyares was the first Latino to hold statewide office. He also managed to unseat Democratic Attorney General Mark Herring, the first incumbent to lose that race since 1885. Republicans also enjoyed control of the House of Delegates from 2022-2024 thanks to that 2021 election.
Initially, the race favored former Governor Terry McAuliffe, a Democrat elected in 2013 with notably only a plurality of the vote, given how much support the Libertarian candidate earned. Youngkin ran a powerful campaign, though, centered on parental rights, and managed to pull off a win.
McAuliffe, meanwhile, ran a bad campaign obsessed with abortion and Trump, demonizing and gaslighting parents on the issue of education and their concern for safety at schools as well as ills such as Critical Race Theory (CRT). He had a particularly viral moment during one of the debates about wanting to keep parents out of the classroom.
Keep in mind that the U.S. Supreme Court had not yet overturned Roe v. Wade with its Dobbs v. Jackson decision, let alone heard arguments in the Dobbs case. Trump was also not on the ballot. McAuliffe also felt the need to make election denialism a major issue, despite how he brought failed gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams of Georgia to campaign for him, and how he denied the results of the 2000 presidential election, a point he brought up again for the 2004 election.
If selected as Trump's VP, Youngkin would be leaving his term early, but that wouldn't matter as he can't run for reelection until 2029. Virginia prohibits governors from running for back-to-back terms, and only one has run for nonconsecutive terms and won: Mills Goodwin from 1966-1970 as a Democrat, and then from 1974-1978 as a Republican. It was a feat McAuliffe was unable to pull off.
During the primary season, there had been some chatter as to whether Youngkin would enter the presidential race. In late March of last year, POLITICO magazine published an opinion piece by John F. Harris, "Why Glenn Youngkin Would Be Crazy Not to Run for President." Youngkin ultimately didn't run, but he had fans.
More recently, POLITICO took a much different angle. Sunday's piece, "Why not them? Key Republicans didn't make Trump’s veep list," mentions him, despite it acknowledging Trump said Youngkin "would be on that list."
Also on Sunday, POLITICO magazine published Jonathan Martin's "What Happened to Glenn Youngkin?" The subheadline claims, "The Virginia governor seems to have lost his way, both in his state and his party."
Republicans did lose control of the House of Delegates in last November's elections and failed to take control of the state Senate. It was nevertheless a close election, though. In his remarks following the elections, Youngkin went for a practical tone. As we covered at the time:
While Youngkin's quest for unified Republican state government ultimately came up short, the full results point to how the situation is not so dire. The governor spoke to how there were "razor thin" margins in many races, and also how Virginia "has historically moved back-and-forth from control of one party in the legislature to control in the others, to governor's races, to very, very thin margins," which he said they saw on Tuesday night.
The governor too pointed to this as a positive note. "I think what that reflects is that we are a state that is very comfortable working together, working across party lines, in order to get things done," pointing out that that's what he's done with a divided government, committing to continuing to do that.
When it comes to the tally, Republicans look to have 19 seats in the state Senate, which means they'll actually have gained a seat. In the House of Delegates, Democrats will likely have only a handful of seats in their majority, as it looks like Republicans will have 49 seats in that chamber.
Shortly before Youngkin made his remarks, the Spirit of Virginia PAC Chairman Dave Rexrode released a memo, which he also shared to his X account. Among the key takeaways is that Republican candidates still won in districts that President Joe Biden won in 2020, and even that Congressional Democrats won in 2022. They also came quite close in districts carried by Biden, former Gov. Terry McAuliffe--the Democratic governor from 2014-2018 who also ran against Youngkin in 2021--and Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton.
During his time as governor in the face of a divided government, Youngkin has issued a record number of vetoes to protect Virginia from far-left policies. This is mentioned once in the lengthy POLITICO magazine piece, and only when quoting fellow Republican George Allen. There's an obvious omission in the piece, that being Youngkin's move to pull Virginia out of California's Electric Vehicle mandate. Martin's piece was published on Sunday, while the EV move happened earlier this month.
The piece also mentions "there are some in Trump's orbit who tell me Youngkin could have a role in the administration, even if vice president isn't on the table," despite how Trump said it could be for Youngkin.
As our friends at Twitchy said while highlighting the hit piece attempt, "No one was buying it."
Bringing this back to the 2024 race, President Joe Biden was unpopular in 2021 and is unpopular still. McAuliffe, in another viral moment, acknowledged during an online event how Biden was unpopular, yet still had him come to Virginia to campaign in the final days of the campaign.
Biden currently has a 37 percent approval rating in Virginia among registered voters, according to a Civiqs poll, while 55 percent disapprove. A poll conducted in February by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) at Roanoke College showed Youngkin with a 53 percent approval rating and Biden with just a 33 percent approval rating.
Virginia will also be noteworthy in other ways on Tuesday night, as the primaries will take place for U.S. House and Senate races, with Democratic Senator Tim Kaine up for reelection.