Such a close and competitive presidential election will almost certainly come down to the battleground states, where former and potentially future President Donald Trump enjoys a lead overall. In this election, which certainly seems to be one for the ages, states once thought of not being in play now are for 2024. While bright blue states like New York and New Jersey might be a little trickier, Minnesota and Virginia do actually look to be in play. This is even after Trump's conviction two weeks ago.
Last month, in the weeks before the "guilty" verdict, we covered how Trump and President Joe Biden were virtually tied in Minnesota. Hillary Clinton won the state in 2016, and Biden did in 2020, but it was rather close in 2016. The poll in question from KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA last month, showed Biden at 44 percent, with Trump at 42 percent. The result was the same for April.
A June poll released this week from KARE 11/MPR News/Star Tribune was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy. Biden has the support of 44.5 percent of voters, while Trump is at 40.6. percent. Independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has the support of 6.4 percent of voters, and 7 percent are still undecided.
In a state that Biden won by 7 points in 2020, these numbers aren't looking too great for the unpopular incumbent, especially if Democrats hope for it to matter as they hang the label of "convicted felon" on Trump.
📊 Minnesota GE: Mason-Dixon
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 10, 2024
🟦 Biden: 45%
🟥 Trump: 41%
🟨 RFK Jr: 6%
🟪 Other: 2%
⬜ Undecided: 7%
—
#30 (2.6/3.0) | 800 LV | 6/3-5 | ±3.5%https://t.co/1tIvUxyzoA pic.twitter.com/VylZU80maz
The poll surveyed 800 likely voters, with Biden's lead being outside the margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, but just barely. The poll was conducted June 3-5, less than a week after the May 30 conviction.
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Coverage from various outlets highlights how close a race this is. The headline from MPR News refers to how Biden only has a "narrow edge." Kare 11's headline points out that "more independents leaning Trump." Among the coveted demographic, Trump has an edge of 37-35 percent.
The headline for USA Today simply reads, "Biden leads Trump in post-conviction Minnesota poll," but there's more to it, as the very first paragraph acknowledges it's only "a slight lead."
"Despite the fact that no Republican presidential candidate has won Minnesota in more than 50 years, and with Biden handily beating Trump in 2020, an unapproving and apathetic electorate could make 2024 a close election," the piece mentions.
Biden and Trump have almost the same approval/disapproval rating in Minnesota, with APM Research Lab highlighting how they're "virtually identical." For Biden, 46.4 percent of likely Minnesota voters approve, while 52.7 percent disapprove. Trump has a 46.6 percent approval rating, while 51.5 percent disapprove.
While APM Research also notes that their approval ratings "by political affiliation are mirror images of one another," with Biden at a 93 percent approval rating among DFL/Democrats and Trump at a 96 percent approval rating among Republicans, it's not so close with Independents. Biden's approval rating is at 39 percent, while 60 percent disapprove. Independents meanwhile approve of Trump at 46 percent, while 51 percent disapprove.
Perhaps the biggest issue for Biden is how the Star Tribune framed the poll, "Minnesota Poll: Biden holds narrow lead over Trump, but GOP voters are more enthusiastic."
Thirty-three percent of Biden voters say they're "not very" (28 percent) or "not at all" (5 percent) enthusiastic to vote for him in November. A plurality, 36 percent, say they're "somewhat" enthusiastic. Thirty-one percent say they're "very enthusiastic."
In contrast, almost two-thirds of Trump supporters, 62 percent, say they're "very enthusiastic" to vote for him. Just 18 percent say they're "not very" (14 percent) or "not at all" (4 percent) eager to vote for him, while 14 percent say they're "somewhat" enthusiastic.
A new poll from the Star Tribune shows a MAJOR difference in enthusiasm between Trump and Biden voters 👇🏻 pic.twitter.com/nVxctpP2Fe
— Early Voters for Trump! (Minnesota) (@VoteEarly4Trump) June 12, 2024
The Star Tribune write-up also highlights how Biden's support is more concentrated in certain areas, stating, "Biden's lead over Trump is driven largely by a 45-point advantage in Hennepin and Ramsey counties. Trump leads everywhere else, including in other counties of the Twin Cities area, where he was up 12 percentage points."
Regarding the enthusiasm factor, it's beneficial but only if Trump and Republicans use it to their advantage. Guy has highlighted and will cover how voter turnout could actually be an issue for Republicans.
Yep — should be the party’s overwhelming focus https://t.co/YWW2ZTGVSp
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) June 12, 2024
That being said, is Minnesota as much of a swing state as say Michigan or Wisconsin? Likely not. However, you never know just how close these races will be. It's quite possible it's going to be close in a lot of states, with the victor for each state and perhaps the overall election enjoying a slight victory, but a victory nevertheless.
As we covered in a VIP piece from Wednesday, FiveThirtyEight is out with its election forecast. Since its release on Tuesday, Biden is down to a 51-in-100 chance of winning (from a 53-in-100 chance), while Trump has a 48-in-100 chance of winning. Where Minnesota comes into play here is that the North Star State had a polling average of D+2, a median share vote of D+5, and showed Biden with a 72 percent chance of winning there, with other swing states looking to be much closer in the probability.
