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Nikki Haley Really Is Still Looking to Make This a Two-Person Race

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  January 25, 2024 4:00 PM

After coming in third place in the Iowa Republican Caucus last week, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley declared the contest to be a two-person race. It was something of a befuddling point, given that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis came in second, though he has since dropped out, as have other candidates like Vivek Ramaswamy and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson. Sure enough, Haley got that two-person race she was looking for with Trump in New Hampshire and beyond.

Just as he did in Iowa, Trump came in first place in New Hampshire, with historic numbers, too. There's been plenty of calls for Haley to drop out and coalsesce around Trump as the nominee, from those like Ramaswamy who was a particular foe of Haley's during the debate, to even RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel.

On Wednesday, a poll from The Economist/YouGov came out, showing that while 61 percent of Republicans and Independents who lean Republican would be "enthusiastic" about Trump being the nominee, just 10 percent said they would be about Haley. A plurality, at 28 percent, said they'd be "satisfied but not enthusiastic."

Haley still appears determined to stay in the race, though. DeSantis was determined to debate as much as he could during the primary. He also tried to debate Trump one-on-one. Although we never saw that Trump-DeSantis debate, it made sense. When it comes to the primary debates that did happen, DeSantis received high marks, and he also debated California Gov. Gavin Newsom late last year as part of "The Great Red State vs. Blue State Debate" on Fox News. Perhaps that was even a preview for the 2028 presidential election, then. 

DeSantis and Haley had one debate in Iowa, after a pressure campaign from DeSantis, but then Haley refused to debate DeSantis in New Hampshire, and she's continued to focus on Trump's refusal to debate. Even still, Haley is looking to debate Trump, as she mentioned during her Tuesday night remarks after New Hampshire was called for Trump.

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On Thursday morning, the Haley campaign also shared an opinion piece for the Wall Street Journal from Daniel Henninger who noted that "Trump Should Debate Haley" and wrote in his subheadline that "Too many independents and unhappy Republicans don’t know enough about what exactly the former president would do next time."

Early on, Henninger made a thoughtful point about "electibility," especially as it applies to Trump and current President Joe Biden:

The one word that will pervade this year’s U.S. presidential election is “electability.” 

We know that more than 60% of all voters want a candidate other than Mr. Trump or President Biden. 

Mr. Trump believes, as do many others, that Mr. Biden’s manifest infirmities make him unelectable. 

Democrats want Mr. Trump as the Republican candidate because they believe he is unelectable.

While polls do show that voters want candidates beyond Trump and Biden and that rematch from 2020, there has been a primary, and it's looking like Trump and Biden are going to once more be the nominees. Pollster Frank Luntz believes we are headed there as well.

Speaking more about reasons to debate in his piece, Henninger continued:

But it is legitimate to raise two matters that will be relevant to 2024’s result: first, the disposition Mr. Trump presents to uncommitted voters, and then the question of what exactly a second Trump presidency would stand for.

Also hanging over Mr. Trump’s head is an X-factor: the apparent association that a significant number of voters make between a criminal conviction of the former president and not voting for him. 

So far, the Trump candidacy is essentially a political Rorschach test. Many voters see in “Trump” an image of whatever matters to them. This in essence has been the argument for Mr. Trump not participating in the GOP debates and refusing now to debate Gov. Haley. Why risk rearranging the pro-Trump inkblots?

The practical answer is that if Mr. Trump doesn’t offer much more than the persona on view Tuesday night, he’s likely to spend the next 9½ months losing so many independents and disaffected Republicans that he will be less electable than even Joe Biden. 

The solution is to man up: Debate Nikki Haley. If he thinks she’s a loser, stand on a stage and prove it. Take voters past the rallies.

For starters, it’s assumed that the GOP is divided between “globalists” and America firsters. What does that mean?

...

For now, Mr. Trump is giving independents and unpersuaded Republicans months to let their opposition harden. If he won’t debate Gov. Haley, what else is he hiding?

As unlikely as Haley's chances at pulling off the nomination may continue to seem, she's still in the race. While New Hampshire was seen as a must-win state for her, or at least one where the margins were closer than the 11-point margin that it was, there's still her home state of South Carolina coming up next month. Luntz also shared a hope for Haley ought to be to make to Super Tuesday on March 5.

SFA Inc., the Super PAC supporting Haley highlighted comments from Fox News' Neil Cavuto that "they both have a long way to go and it's still early," speaking about Trump and Haley in the race.

Wednesday's VIP examined the predicted numbers versus the actual outcome out of New Hampshire, with Haley doing better than many polls claimed she would, but not as well as Luntz predicted.

Since then, Luntz has highlighted not only the ultimate outcome as made to CNN's Laura Coates right after Trump's win, but also how difficult the primary could be for Haley. 

Speaking about one of the "key trends" he's following, Luntz shared that "the level of intensity, of passion among [Trump's] voters," who Luntz indicated "aren't looking for... aren't considering anyone else" and that "for them, it's Trump or nothing." As Luntz continued, he noted that "I have never in my professional career seen a presidential candidate with this degree of passion and support." He later added that Haley doesn't win among "base Republicans."

Luntz, however, did speak to Haley's "unique ability to expand the base to reach voters Republicans don't normally reach," although he also noted that exit polls show that those factors don't matter as much to primary voters. 

While Luntz stressed how one needs to win moderates and Independents to become president, something Haley has the advantage on, he also stressed that Trump is still likely to win the primary.

Meanwhile, both Democratic and Republican opponents have taken noted of what could very well be Trump alienating Haley supporters. This included with all of the shots he took at her during Tuesday night's victory speech, which the Haley campaign and SFA Inc. are still talking about. The WSJ also published Karl Rove's opinion piece from Wednesday afternoon on how "Trump Throws a New Hampshire Tantrum."

And, while a Wednesday morning press call from the Biden reelection campaign stressed they believe Trump to be the nominee, those conducting the call did bring up Trump going after Haley, his fellow Republican, as a mark against him and a sign of disunity.

Then there's how Trump posted he doesn't want Haley's donors, even though it would likely be wise in what could very well be a close race against Biden to have all the help possible. Haley actually shared the post in question from Trump and used it as an opportunity to fundaise.

What could complicate that sense of unity further, though, and disgruntled feelings, is reports from Thursday that the RNC may already be looking to further declare Trump to be the presumptive nominee.

The general election doesn't necessarily have to be as foreboding as Henninger treats it, but it will be important to campaign and coalesce regardless. That's not just when it comes to Republicans who supported Trump's primary opponents, but also persuadable Independents and others. Haley's supporters may especially need to be persuaded, not only due to Trump's reaction to winning on Tuesday, but poll results from the Des Moines Register poll released right before the Iowa Republican Caucus.

Currently, RealClearPolling has Trump up by +3.8 against Biden for the general election.