The 2024 primary season officially kicks off tonight with the Iowa Republican Caucus. Former and potentially future President Donald Trump is expected to pull off a win, especially given his historic lead. There are still primary candidates for him to fend off, though, including former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who is now polling second in the Hawkeye State. Regardless of who wins Iowa and the nomination, and it's looking increasingly like that will be Trump, it's crucial to keep an eye on the prize of defeating President Joe Biden come November.
On Saturday, just ahead of tonight's caucus, the Des Moines Register released a poll confirming Trump was not only the frontrunner but that he enjoyed 48 percent support among caucusgoers. It's down slightly from the 51 percent he enjoyed in December, but such a lead is still powerful. Haley also replaced Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for second place, with 20 percent, while DeSantis has 16 percent support.
The poll's write-up notes that people's minds mostly seem to be made up. "Overall, 68% say their minds are made up, while 25% say they could still be persuaded. Another 7% say they do not have a first-choice candidate," the write-up mentions, also speaking to how supporters of the top three candidates feel about their choice. "More Trump supporters are locked in, with 82% saying their minds are made up. It's 64% for DeSantis supporters and 63% for Haley supporters."
🚨 IOWA POLL: Nikki Haley moves into second place
— Brianne Pfannenstiel (@brianneDMR) January 14, 2024
Trump: 48%
Haley: 20%
DeSantis: 16%
Ramaswamy: 8%
Ryan Binkley: 1%
Asa Hutchinson: 1%
MOE +/- 3.7%https://t.co/cPAOk8vBMQ
Whether you have strong feelings about Haley or not, the poll still presents cause for concern, at least when it comes to her supporters. Another poll write-up from the Des Moines Register points out that "More Nikki Haley supporters would vote for Biden over Trump in November, Iowa Poll finds." Jeff Charles, at our sister site RedState, covered such a finding as well.
"Respondents who plan to caucus for Haley stand out as significantly less optimistic about Trump's chances than other likely Republican caucusgoers," this poll write-up mentions. Indictments against Trump are mentioned throughout that piece as well:
A majority of Haley supporters, 54%, say it would be nearly impossible for Trump to win against Biden, given his legal challenges. That’s down from 65% in a December Iowa Poll.
The various indictments brought against Trump, including from Biden's Department of Justice (DOJ), have been criticized as election interference, especially as Trump has been regarded as most likely to face Biden in November. This all goes on as Biden and his supporters hypocritically rant about the need to protect democracy from the threat that Trump supposedly is.
It can't be ignored that the Biden reelection campaign is going to continue to use such findings to their advantage, especially as Biden is faring so poorly in the polls.
The hopeful news is that this looks to be limited to Haley supporters. Further, the number of Haley supporters who worry Trump can't win is going down. As time goes on and Trump makes his case, perhaps he can convince his opponents' supporters to choose him over Biden. Then again, those Democrats hesitant about voting for Biden could also come home and ultimately decide to still vote for him when faced with the alternative.
"Which of the following better describes your view of Donald Trump's legal challenges?" the poll asked likely Republican caucusgoers. Seventy-four percent said that "Donald Trump can win an election against Joe Biden, regardless of his legal challenges," while just 23 percent said that "Donald Trump's legal challenges will make it nearly impossible for him to win an election against Joe Biden."
Still, this should be a team effort given how nothing can be taken for granted come November. Trump has been ahead of Biden in a hypothetical rematch from 2020, and RealClearPolling currently shows him with a lead of +1.1, which is not as high as it's been in the past. That might go up though if Trump indeed pulls off some primary wins, as he's been expected to do.
The write-up about the overall poll has some findings that may speak to this as well.
Independents were key in the 2016 and 2020 elections, going for Trump in 2016 when he won against Hillary Clinton and Biden in 2020 when he won against Trump. They will likely matter again.
The poll highlights at one point how "Donald Trump holds strong, steady lead across all demographics," but there's a section devoted to Independents entirely, in that "Donald Trump leads with independents, but they make up a big chunk of Nikki Haley's support." Thirty-seven percent of Independents who plan to caucus with Republicans say they support Trump, while 33 percent say so about Haley. That's rather close, given how wide Trump's lead is in other areas, and that the poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percent.
As the poll's write-up mentions:
He gets the support of 37% of independents who plan to caucus with Republicans. Haley follows with 33%. DeSantis gets 14%, and Ramaswamy gets 5%.
But independents and Democrats make up half of Haley’s support going into Caucus Day, the poll shows. That was also true in the Register’s December Iowa Poll.
Among Haley’s supporters, 39% identify as independents and 11% identify as Democrats.
It's also telling that Haley doesn't have very high approval numbers or enthusiasm. This could especially be a factor with the winter weather facing Iowa tonight. One section of the poll write-up notes that "Lack of enthusiasm among Nikki Haley supporters is 'on the edge of jaw-dropping,'" which references a quote from pollster J. Ann Selzer.
Just 9 percent of caucusgoers who plan to turn out for Haley say they're "extremely enthusiastic," while that number is 49 percent for Trump, a plurality. A plurality of Haley supporters, 49 percent, say they're "mildly enthusiastic," while 30 percent say they're "very enthusiastic" and 12 percent say they're "not that enthusiastic."
"Her enthusiasm numbers, again, I just think are on the edge of jaw-dropping," Selzer was quoted as saying. "That 61% are just mildly enthusiastic or not that enthusiastic — it just seems at odds with a candidate moving up."
"The deep data on (Haley) suggest she looks stronger in the poll than she could on caucus night," Selzer adds.
This poll has Haley viewed favorably by 48 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers, while 59 percent did so in December. She's now viewed unfavorably by 46 percent, while that number was at 31 percent in December.
Iowa is also only one state and is no longer considered as much of a swing state as it once was in previous elections.
One way of looking at what to do about this is assuming Donald Trump becomes the nominee, asks Haley to be his vice president and she accepts. We've explored that before, including with last Friday's VIP piece. It's still viewed as unlikely, especially when there are so many other names and Donald Trump Jr. is opposed to the idea.
Also on Sunday, though, a lengthy thread on X by a user known as "Genius Parks, CPA," who is not only a DeSantis supporter but a #NeverTrumper," got people talking about Haley being not just Trump's running mate, but the ultimate Republican nominee. The thread mentioned the flurry of congressional endorsements coming out in support of Trump over the weekend, as well as Sen. Rand Paul's (R-KY) opposition to Haley.
There's plenty of reason to be skeptical about this, but it did get some attention and is worth seeing for yourself and coming to your own conclusions about its validity.
Essentially, The Trump/Haley ticket is a done deal. Both sides behind the scenes have discussed & hashed out the agreement. The expected announcement will supposedly take place sometime after the NH Primary but before the SC Primary. Here's how it has gone down:
— Genius Parks, CPA (@Genius_Parks) January 14, 2024
The Trump camp does not want to get into a 1-on-1 with DeSantis. For this reason, they started talking to the Haley camp about the VP spot. She would endorse Trump & he'd name her his running mate prior to the SC Primary.
— Genius Parks, CPA (@Genius_Parks) January 14, 2024
This agreement has apparently leaked out onto Capitol Hill with guys like Rand Paul, Mike Lee, Marco Rubio, Rick Scott, and Ted Cruz all being aware of it. It appears this had something to do with Rand's #NeverNikki & Lee supposedly seeing the writing on the wall.
— Genius Parks, CPA (@Genius_Parks) January 14, 2024
The RNC seems to be in the know here as well. They are interested in a side plan that in the event Trump is forced out of the race for legal reasons, they want Haley to pick a female VP running mate creating the first ever all-female major party ticket in history.
— Genius Parks, CPA (@Genius_Parks) January 14, 2024
The shots at Vivek were meant to get him out of the race no later than the NH Primary.
— Genius Parks, CPA (@Genius_Parks) January 14, 2024
The bottom line of all this is that Trump IS the Establishment & the Establishment prefers Trump over DeSantis b/c they can control Trump. But if Trump is forced out, they have rigged the game to set Haley up as the beneficiary
— Genius Parks, CPA (@Genius_Parks) January 14, 2024
All DeSantis can do is crush it in IA and "let the chips fall where they may". But if MAGA & the Establishment form this unholy alliance with the bulk of the party acquiescing with this, I'm not sure what the strategy is to out-delegate them to the convention.
— Genius Parks, CPA (@Genius_Parks) January 14, 2024
Someone who is near @chiproytx or @RepThomasMassie might be able to ask about this, as I'd be surprised they weren't aware of it either. But I believe this explains the rush of endorsements before anybody has even cast a single vote. It's a Trump-Establishment unholy alliance.
— Genius Parks, CPA (@Genius_Parks) January 14, 2024
The results from Monday night will likely determine if anyone involved in deciding these matters gives it a second thought.
How will Haley fare on Monday night? Could she somehow end up pulling off a win in Iowa? And if she doesn't, will the amount of supporters she has make a difference come November, assuming she isn't the nominee? Check out Townhall's continued coverage, including our live blog and live results to come later this evening.
