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Tipsheet

This Trump Tax Break Is Wildly Popular, Which Has Jammed Up Dems

This Trump Tax Break Is Wildly Popular, Which Has Jammed Up Dems
AP Photo/Alex Brandon

It may not happen right away, but Trump will make you eat it. He’s done that to Democrats throughout his public career. When you count him out, he comes back stronger. Oppose him, and you’ll end up eating crow. The Left thought they pushed him out in 2020, only for him to return more powerful than ever four years later. Like in his first term, he introduced a series of middle-class tax cuts that Democrats predictably claimed would favor the wealthy. Their usual line is getting tired, and it's also wrong.

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Over 20 million Americans claimed the overtime tax break this year, which expires in 2028. It’s a reminder that working people are now Republicans. Even worse for Democrats, the Obama coalition has been absorbed by MAGA. As of now, Democrats don’t know how to respond, with some privately admitting they like the policy. Others are clinging to the hope that Scott Bessent’s Treasury Department made an error. In what lifetime has the government ever been wrong about tax records, guys? It’s probably the only thing the government does well—keeping track of for obvious reasons (via Politico): 

President Donald Trump’s new tax deduction for overtime looks like a hit this filing season, and that’s shaping up to be a big challenge for Democrats. 

Nearly 20 million taxpayers so far have claimed the break, internal Treasury data shows. Republicans created the allowance — a Trump campaign pledge — as part of their signature tax cuts the president signed into law last July. It’s already more popular than well-known provisions like the mortgage interest deduction.

Republicans are gloating over having stolen their colleagues’ working-class thunder as they look to fend off Democrats in November’s midterm elections. 

“If I were them, I’d say, ‘This is who we used to be,’” said Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.), a senior member of the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee.“They were always the blue-collar people.” 

Democratic lawmakers are divided over how to respond. For all their antipathy toward Trump’s signature tax cut, some say they like the overtime provision. It’s set to expire at the end of 2028, and some want to not only extend it but make it more generous. Others are offering competing plans aimed at one-upping Trump with proposals to excuse people under certain income thresholds from owing income tax. 

And some are skeptical of the Treasury figures, wondering if many of the claims are illegitimate. 

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It’s still a funny script. Democrats lambast the Bush tax cuts, but made most of them permanent in 2013. The Trump tax cuts during his first presidency were criticized by congressional Democrats, but they ended up liking most of those. It’s almost as if the GOP has better tax policy, and this case was no exception. 

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