Hmm: Latest Virginia Tracking Poll Shows Gillespie Narrowly...Leading

Posted: Nov 03, 2017 4:30 PM

It's been a dreadful final week for Virginia Democrats' gubernatorial nominee Ralph Northam.  His campaign got busted for coordinating with the leftist group that ran a widely-denounced, racially-tinged attack ad, a top surrogate was caught slandering Republicans as "evil," Virginia's only black former governor (a Democrat) declined to endorse him, and a number of left-wing groups are slamming him as "racist" over his hilarious flip-flop on sanctuary cities.  Nevertheless, the conventional wisdom consensus is that Northam is still favored to win on Tuesday, as reflecting in the statewide polling average.  But within that average, a few apparent outliers have shown Republican Ed Gillespie ahead, perhaps due to important variations in how pollsters project turnout.  Could Gillespie pull off the upset next week?  A fresh tracking poll, in the field this week, gives the GOP ticket a very small lead:

The same survey also gives the Republican Lieutenant Governor (+3) and Attorney General (+1) nominees slim leads, each within the poll's margin of error.  As I wrote yesterday, Northam may well emerge victorious, but his team is not conducting itself like a confident bunch, and the "circular firing squad" effect could be damaging.  Meanwhile, his ad buyers have been making choices that have some political professionals scratching their heads:

I'll leave you with this report on Northam's just-revealed ties to 'Latino Victory,' and (another) local editorial hammering the smear job they ran together:

UPDATE: Nail-biter? 

UPDATE II - Two additional polls now have Gillespie tied (nonpartisan) or ahead (R).