It's been a dreadful final week for Virginia Democrats' gubernatorial nominee Ralph Northam. His campaign got busted for coordinating with the leftist group that ran a widely-denounced, racially-tinged attack ad, a top surrogate was caught slandering Republicans as "evil," Virginia's only black former governor (a Democrat) declined to endorse him, and a number of left-wing groups are slamming him as "racist" over his hilarious flip-flop on sanctuary cities. Nevertheless, the conventional wisdom consensus is that Northam is still favored to win on Tuesday, as reflecting in the statewide polling average. But within that average, a few apparent outliers have shown Republican Ed Gillespie ahead, perhaps due to important variations in how pollsters project turnout. Could Gillespie pull off the upset next week? A fresh tracking poll, in the field this week, gives the GOP ticket a very small lead:
Hmmmm: #VAGov tracking poll (10/31-11/2) gives Gillespie small lead over Northam: pic.twitter.com/8lVOO2Berf
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 3, 2017
The same survey also gives the Republican Lieutenant Governor (+3) and Attorney General (+1) nominees slim leads, each within the poll's margin of error. As I wrote yesterday, Northam may well emerge victorious, but his team is not conducting itself like a confident bunch, and the "circular firing squad" effect could be damaging. Meanwhile, his ad buyers have been making choices that have some political professionals scratching their heads:
If you wanted to GOTV Trump voters, can’t imagine a better way to do it than the last few days of the Northam campaign
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 3, 2017
I'll leave you with this report on Northam's just-revealed ties to 'Latino Victory,' and (another) local editorial hammering the smear job they ran together:
WATCH: @fox5newsdc Reports On @RalphNortham Campaign's Coordination With @latinovictoryus https://t.co/VtqatuKt1s #VAGov
— John Burke (@JBurkeNation) November 2, 2017
UPDATE: Nail-biter?
Also, FWIW, Rasmussen's tracker (in the field this week) has #VAGov tied 45-45:https://t.co/AIoTvCvGhh
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 3, 2017
UPDATE II - Two additional polls now have Gillespie tied (nonpartisan) or ahead (R).
