Nate Silver is part of the polling corps that’s hedging their bets. He wrote on Sunday that a blue wave looks likely, because that’s what all his colleagues are saying. Some of these projections are wild this year, like predicting Florida will have a Democrat governor. Not going to happen.
Steve Kornacki: Republicans have a higher favorability rating than Democrats This was not the case in 2018 https://t.co/h8mv1NBoKU
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) November 1, 2026
Republicans are leading on the congressional ballot in GOP-held districts and in states Trump won in 2024 Per NBC Poll https://t.co/6yYwegFWHX
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) November 1, 2026
Voters now trust Republicans more to handle the economy over democrats per NBC Poll Trust with the economy: September: 🔵 Democrats +1 Now: 🔴 Republicans +2 https://t.co/S4BISmvabP
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) November 1, 2026
In 2024, Silver infuriated Democrats with his Electoral College projections because Trump was winning; he swung to the other side slightly when Kamala Harris took over. Trump won. In 2026, he’s saying a blue wave will essentially happen only in blue states and, more importantly, that the GOP has a ton of winning combinations:
💥NEW: Nate Silver says "REPUBLICANS STILL HAVE A LOT OF WINNING COMBINATIONS" in Midterms💥 Silver argued "DEATH BY A THOUSAND CUTS" could block a blue wave. He asserted Democrats likely need to win in deep red areas to pull off their anticipated victories. Silver particularly highlighted Maine and Michigan as Senate races Democrats might lose. He concluded he would find it "emotionally kind of shocking" if Texas turned blue. Trump and @elonmusk are leaving it all on the field. The Democrat Party is also extremely unpopular and polling has been wrong before. Democrats are acting like they have the Midterms in the bag — and are already plotting their retribution campaign. But their planning may be premature.
— Jason Cohen 🇺🇸 (@JasonJournoDC) October 30, 2026
Silver argued "death by a thousand cuts" could block a blue wave.
He asserted Democrats likely need to win in deep red areas to pull off their anticipated victories.
Silver particularly highlighted Maine and Michigan as Senate races Democrats might lose.
He concluded he would find it "emotionally kind of shocking" if Texas turned blue.
Yet, Silver said on Sunday that a blue wave is the projection, added a touch of skepticism, but concluded that’s where the polls are saying.
My man, they can be wrong. We’ve had fake poll controversies this year. The GOP vote is always undercounted, and this industry cannot seem to accurately gauge the voting climate.
We’ll see tomorrow.
Quite a concession from NYT on their 'polls' here: "Registered white Democrats were 30% likelier to take the poll than registered white Republicans." So, why would you release the polls when your sample clearly does not reflect the overall electorate? https://t.co/koVdPEcI6l
— Greg Price (@greg_price11) November 2, 2026
Final NYT polls for 2024. 🤷♂️ https://t.co/0AlEc6HACC
— L A R R Y (@LarryOConnor) November 2, 2026
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