Nate Silver is part of the polling corps that’s hedging their bets. He wrote on Sunday that a blue wave looks likely, because that’s what all his colleagues are saying. Some of these projections are wild this year, like predicting Florida will have a Democrat governor. Not going to happen. 

In 2024, Silver infuriated Democrats with his Electoral College projections because Trump was winning; he swung to the other side slightly when Kamala Harris took over. Trump won. In 2026, he’s saying a blue wave will essentially happen only in blue states and, more importantly, that the GOP has a ton of winning combinations:

Silver argued "death by a thousand cuts" could block a blue wave.

He asserted Democrats likely need to win in deep red areas to pull off their anticipated victories.

Silver particularly highlighted Maine and Michigan as Senate races Democrats might lose.

He concluded he would find it "emotionally kind of shocking" if Texas turned blue.

Yet, Silver said on Sunday that a blue wave is the projection, added a touch of skepticism, but concluded that’s where the polls are saying. 

My man, they can be wrong. We’ve had fake poll controversies this year. The GOP vote is always undercounted, and this industry cannot seem to accurately gauge the voting climate. 

We’ll see tomorrow. 

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