Over the past week, we have seen Vladimir Putin launch a brutal, imperialist war against Ukraine. In the process, he made clear what has been increasingly apparent for some time: the post-Cold War era, constructed in large part by President George H.W. Bush, has crumbled, quite likely beyond repair.
For over 30 years, the world has been defined by peace among great powers, stability of international borders, and greater economic integration. This order was underwritten by the undisputed supremacy of the United States, economically and militarily. The European Union has been a significant economic bloc but is largely dependent on the U.S. for security, Russia a legacy military power but with an economy smaller than Italy, and China a rising power (aided by the foolish decision to let them into the World Trade Organization), not yet ready to directly challenge America.
However, China has significantly closed the gap with the United States and is clearly a great power, leading Putin to buddy up with Xi, forming a modern Authoritarian Axis. With a rising ally to sell his oil, gas, and agriculture too, Putin has set out to rebuild the Russian Empire and establish a sphere of influence over Eastern Europe, emboldened by Europe’s dependence on his natural gas.
In our big cities, we have seen that when police are hamstrung and prosecutors don’t go after crime, respect for domestic laws diminishes. Similarly, international law, a purely theoretical concept, is ignored when dictators do not fear the keepers of the peace, namely the United States and our allies.
As we transition into this new world, there are predictably those calling for more foreign adventurism. The best example is suggestions we enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine, which would put the U.S. and Russia into a direct military conflict. On the other extreme, there can be a pull to isolationism, questioning whether events in Eastern Europe matter to America at all.
In fact, as we move into this multipolar world, with aggressive authoritarian powers, the answer is we must re-double our efforts at crafting an America First foreign policy, encompassing not just national security, but economic and energy security.
The harsh reality is that the US, Russia, and China are the three nations that have the capacity to end the world with their nuclear arsenals. As such, direct military conflict can never be seen as a viable Plan A, B, or C. Deterring aggression that can lead to such a conflict is clearly in our interest as is global stability and the respect for sovereign nations’ borders. This is also in the interest of our democratic allies from Japan to France.
The other harsh reality is we are just one nation with finite resources. Xi is happy to see Putin unleash chaos on Ukraine because it forces us to send more resources to the European theater to boost NATO—resources that cannot be deployed to the Pacific to counter China. Xi is happy to see Russia and Iran divert our focus—China can win if we spread ourselves too thin.
America alone cannot protect the Free World everywhere at all times; there must be burden-sharing.
It is encouraging to see nations like Germany suddenly commit to spending 2% on defense as NATO requires—it appears former President Donald Trump was right after all. To ensure the authoritarian axis cannot wear us down, we must get every ally in Asia, South America, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe to make similar defense commitments and hold them to it. The free world has far greater resources than the authoritarians, but only if everyone commits them. We can protect those who protect themselves not those who choose to free-ride. We must add enforcement mechanisms to NATO defense spending commitments and all formal alliances.
We must also harden our economy to insulate it from adversaries and require military allies to do the same. There can be no more relying on us for defense while prioritizing economic ties with China. That means bringing manufacturing out of China and energy production out of Russia. We must shift from a policy of reliance to one of self-sufficiency. If Russia turns off the gas to Europe, that continent could slip into a severe recession, just as we would if China halted exports. Even if it costs more to produce goods here or in allied countries, the security benefits outweigh them. That means drilling everywhere, investing in renewables, building factories here, and getting our allies to do the same. If you want our protection, buy our gas, not Russia’s.
We cannot return to a world where great powers can bully neighbors—that is a fundamentally more dangerous one. We also cannot glibly go to war with Russia or China. As such, we must deter aggression. The only way to do that is to have credible military might across the free world, which only happens if we enforce minimum spending requirements on allies. We also must decouple our economy and those of allies from the manufacturing and energy machines of China and Russia, so that they cannot wage economic war on us.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine should be a wake-up call that the post-Cold War era is over; authoritarianism is a genuine threat that cannot be handled by the US alone. Let’s use this moment to get allies to carry their weight and bring back manufacturing and energy production. If not, we may face an even graver crisis, like China invading Taiwan, in a year’s time. We cannot let this second Cold War turn into a third World War. Strength and self-sufficiency will ensure it doesn’t.
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