Despite so many factors going against Republicans, all the indicators are pointing to a mammoth win for Donald Trump on Tuesday. Democrats control the media, big tech, the legal system, education/academia, government, and corporations. Republicans have churches — but 32 million evangelicals are unlikely to vote in this election, meaning that influence is negligible. This leaves Republicans without much to counterbalance the massive Democratic advantages except enhanced GOTV efforts by the party, Turning Point USA, one-man machine Scott Pressler and Elon Musk’s efforts, which include converting Twitter into the only mainstream social media platform that doesn’t censor the right.
Due to the GOTV efforts, far more Republicans than Democrats have already voted in several battleground states, which was unheard of in recent years due to GOP fears of election fraud with early ballots. At the same time, Democrats aren’t voting early in as large a number as they did in 2020. In Arizona, by the 15th day of early ballots, Democrats had only voted 363,643 early ballots, which is 35.4% of their numbers. In contrast, in 2020, Democrats returned 535,229, or 43.5%.
As of Sunday, 9% more Republicans than Democrats had voted in Arizona, 5% more in Nevada, 3% more in Georgia and 2% more in North Carolina. While the Democrats were ahead in the other battleground states, many Republicans are still expected to wait and vote on Election Day. Since the extra voters consist of mostly low-propensity voters who wouldn’t normally vote, there will still be all the high-propensity Republican voters casting ballots.
Independents are significantly behind Republicans and Democrats in voting early, and their numbers, which usually split pretty evenly between Republicans and Democrats — the reason why they rarely impact races — are trending towards Republicans this year, polls show.
Despite the MSM highlighting a few aberrational polls that deliberately oversampled Democrats, college-educated voters and/or registered voters who weren’t “likely voters,” reputable polls show Trump winning in all the battleground states. AtlasIntel, which is ranked 22nd for accuracy out of hundreds of pollsters by the left-leaning FiveThirtyEight and considered very reputable by the left-leaning site MediaBias/FactCheck, shows Trump winning by 6 points in Arizona, 2 points in Pennsylvania, 2 points in Georgia, 6 points in Nevada, 4 points in North Carolina, 2 points in Michigan and 1 point in Wisconsin.
Rasmussen Reports’ head pollster, Mark Mitchell, just predicted a landslide for Trump, reminiscent of Ronald Reagan’s historic huge win over Jimmy Carter in 1980. He said there is a good chance Virginia and New Hampshire could flip, too, and possibly even Minnesota or New Mexico. Mitchell said the polls showing a close race are wrong; Trump is actually strongly winning, and his advantage is increasing in battleground states. Rasmussen was considered one of FiveThirtyEight's top handful of most accurate pollsters until the cheating started in 2020.
Former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris predicted Trump would pick up all the battleground states with the possible exception of Wisconsin. He said Trump might also pick up Minnesota or Virginia.
Betting markets on Sunday had Trump ahead. Kalshi showed Trump far ahead in every battleground state except Michigan and Wisconsin. The betting site Polymarket also has Trump ahead, but some have discounted this because a wealthy Frenchman bet $38 million on Trump.
The election forecasting site Quantus Insights has steadily shown Trump winning the electoral college by a large margin. It provided a significant analysis of why the battleground states will likely go to Trump.
A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll released less than two weeks ago showed that Trump was 11 points ahead of Harris with Latino voters. Even though Harris is reportedly a tiny part black, she has less black support than Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden. Trump is on track to receive three times the amount of black support he had in 2016 and is currently at 16%, with almost 30% of black men. This could also be because Harris’ ancestors owned and traded slaves — a fact even the left-leaning Wikipedia admits, and something Harris has never denied.
The number of newspapers refusing to issue an endorsement in the presidential race is another foreboding sign for Harris. In 2016, only 26 of the country’s largest newspapers didn’t make an endorsement. This year, that number almost doubled, with 46 declining to issue one.
Douglas MacKinnon, a former White House and Pentagon official, predicted in September that non-elites, afraid of what the “condescending” left is doing to the country, will turn out a landslide for Trump.
The elites all predicted Carter would survive a challenge from Reagan in 1980, but instead Reagan trounced him. Reagan is the only president in history to be so popular that he obtained over 1,000 electoral votes. In 1984, his 525 electoral votes (out of 538) is the highest total ever received by a presidential candidate. Many believe Reagan won due to asking Carter during their single debate, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
Since Democrats failed to rally significant numbers in their party to vote early, Republicans are afraid they plan to bombard the election with a barrage of questionably obtained last minute mail-in ballots. In 2020 and 2022, the courts either sat on litigation challenging these shenanigans, creating fatigue so people forgot about it, or sidestepped adjudicating the controversy by claiming some bogus technical reason barred the lawsuits from being decided.
While Democrats are expected to pull their usual shenanigans, abusing the courts at the last minute, there have been several key rulings in the last couple of weeks revealing that judges aren’t going to rubber stamp all of their sleazy maneuvers this time around. The most striking decision is the Supreme Court deciding to take up a case just a few days before the election — almost unprecedented — and ruling that Virginia could remove noncitizens from its rolls. Due to the longstanding Purcell Principle, courts have refrained from intervening this close to an election. As long as no cheating is allowed, Trump appears headed for a decisive victory.
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