After eight months in Gaza captivity, reports are out that the US is suddenly negotiating with Hamas for the release of the five known hostages who have American citizenship. While I am all for anything that gets Americans home to their families, the situation raises a couple of strange questions:
*Is the US negotiating directly with Hamas or solely through Qatari intermediaries? Hamas has been designated by the US as a terror organization since 1997.
*Some of the Americans also have Israeli citizenship. Will this affect their status in these talks?
*What does the US have to offer? Other than cash and signed pictures of the Bidens, what can the US put on the table? It holds no Hamas prisoners in the US and cannot tell Israel what to do if Israeli hostages are not part of the program.
*Why are these negotiations happening now?
The famous expression from the days of Bill Clinton, “It’s the economy, stupid” could be expanded a bit to mean that an incumbent needs good news going into an election. Biden and Blinken have been pressuring Israel to agree to a lousy ceasefire deal that keeps Hamas running Gaza so that Biden can declare the war over and begin the task of getting the young and progressive Democrats to stop spray-painting Washington monuments and start canvassing for the party. The geniuses in the White House are looking for a twofer if they can get the American hostages out: impress their voters and poke Binyamin (Bibi) Netanyahu in the eye. The problem with the first part is that except for Jewish voters, Biden voters do not care about the hostages. One very conveniently held a sign, “Kill the hostages” at a very recent pro-Hamas protest. As to defeating Bibi, that story is more complex. To date, the US has done little to avenge the 30 American citizens murdered on 10/7.
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I personally do not believe that Hamas will make a deal with Biden to release the Americans unless a lot of money is involved. Hamas looks at Biden and Trump as the same thing: they both supply Israel with weapons and are not big supporters of anything beyond a two-state solution. Also, they get plenty of money from Qatar. So what could Washington offer that would make it worthwhile letting Jews/Israelis with US citizenship go? I don’t know. But if the American negotiators pull it off, they can claim that they know how to get hostages home, something that Bibi is failing to do. This argument will not wash with Israelis, as Hamas supporters are putting keffiyehs on statues in the US while in Israel they’re trying to kill everyone. Also, depending on what the US gives up, Israelis could see the Americans as losers. If there is nothing that Israels hate more, it’s getting a bad deal. If you tell your friend that you got a plane ticket for $300, and he got it for $200, he’ll call you a “freier” and you’ll feel like an idiot. If Hamas rolls Blinken as Iran and the Taliban (Bowe Bergdahl) did, then the Israelis will look with scorn at the deal, however happy that the hostages are out.
As Benny Gantz exits the war government and his star dims in Washington as Bibi’s replacement, the US apparently feels that it needs to make a move to further weaken Bibi politically. It’s the only explanation that after eight months of ignoring the American hostages and not threatening to join Israel in fighting for the safety of its people, it suddenly and out of the blue is now trying to get them out. Hamas will smell the desperation and demand a king’s ransom for the five Americans’ release.
There are sports like figure skating or rhythmic gymnastics that require finesse. Geopolitical affairs sometimes require the brute force of an air strike, while at other times needs the soft touch of a Michelin-starred chef. The US is entering into a desperate move to finally address Americans held by a terror organization, and they are doing so like a bull in a china shop. The fact that they announced that they are in such negotiations is not for the benefit of the hostages and their suffering families. Rather, it is to put Bibi on notice that he is incompetent and they will take care of their own people, though, again, they probably all have dual citizenship. While I very much hope that all of the hostages come home, I don’t expect much from this ham-handed effort to pretend to be a serious player in the current war. The US is entering a bazaar and does not know the rules. Hamas can either string them along if it has no intention of releasing hostages or demand a sum that would be similar to the billions that Iran received for a handful of prisoners that it held. Either way, the US is not getting a bargain.
As I have written previously, Bibi Netanyahu will one day find himself again a private citizen. The US does not understand Israeli politics well enough to appreciate that the Israeli public will get rid of Bibi on its terms and with its own timing. US efforts to make Gantz appear like a leader or cut a deal with Hamas for its people or push Israel to agree to terrible terms simply to end a war will not wash with nearly 10 million Israeli citizens. The people here want a victory and don’t want to settle for anything less.
I hope that my fellow Americans walk out of Gaza soon. I hope that the American leadership learns that Israeli politics do not move according to their whims. Israelis do not exist to get Joe Biden reelected.
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