With just over three weeks away from the election, Vice President Kamala Harris is still not where she needs to be to win this election. That doesn't mean that former and potentially future President Donald Trump can ever afford to get complacent, but he could very likely win this. Harris and her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), meanwhile look to be doing themselves very few favors, media blitzes to quiet concerns from their allies in the mainstream media be damned. This election will certainly come down to the swing states, with Michigan and Wisconsin being particularly critical.
As we've been covering, Michigan isn't looking too great for Harris, and some polls are downright terrible for her. Wisconsin might also a problem. This goes with polls as well as anecdotal evidence from on the ground.
The Daily Signal's Tony Kinnett was in Wisconsin this week, and noted how "Wisconsin Democrats are lethargic, and somewhere between nervous and a full-blown panic attack." There's time for them to come back, but this isn't a good sign, especially when it comes to how "energetic" he says Wisconsin Republicans are feeling in comparison and "can only be described as 'all in.'"
Thursday's episode of "The Tony Kinnett Cast," which was broadcast live from Wisconsin, was even titled, "Kamala’s Nightmare is Coming True." The episode discussed Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and how bad such states are looking in the context of an Axios article, "Behind the Curtain: Dems' Blue Wall blues," which is putting it rather politely.
To close the show, Kinnett admitted he had been wrong when he declared after last month's presidential debate between Trump and Harris that Trump had lost Wisconsin but won Michigan. This was based on Arab voters and the debate's discussion on abortion.
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However, as Kinnett said, he was "now prepared to admit thatTrump has a very, very decent here in Wisconsin." This is based on what he and co-host Matt Davis, the CEO of Maranatha Baptist University as part of "a ground swell." As Davis explained, people are more willing to admit they support Trump in ways they weren't willing to do so in 2020.
What do the polls say, though? InsiderPolling surveyed likely voters in Wisconsin and Michigan, where Trump and Harris are actually tied at 48 percent each.
Further, vulnerable Democratic incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin is only ahead against Republican Eric Hovde by 48-47 percent. Such a lead is within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points. As we covered on Thursday, Republicans have a good chance at winning control of the Senate, including potentially through Wisconsin.
The poll was conducted October 8-9.
In Michigan, Trump is actually leading, 48-46 percent among likely voters.
Just as Wisconsin is a swing state at the top of the ticket and with down ballot races, so is the Senate state in Michigan as well. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers are running to replace Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who is retiring. Slotkin only leads Rogers by 46-45 percent, which is also within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
The poll was conducted October 7-8.
A statement from InsiderAdvantage Chairman and Co-Host of PollingPlus Matt Towery highlighted Michigan in particular.
"Trump is improving his numbers among African Americans and Independents. In Michigan he is ahead in every Demographic other than Democrats. When asked who respondents believe the majority of their neighbors will vote for, Trump’s support increases substantially. This suggests that some “shy Trump voters” might not feel comfortable telling us that they are voting for him. Regardless, the race remains razor thin in both states. Both U.S. Senate races also appear to be closing quickly, indicating some momentum for Republicans
Both states included 800 likely voters each.
Kinnett and Davis also discussed how indeed these Senate races could also be affected given how poorly Harris is doing with numerous demographics, with Trump even making improvements with young black men in a way that could affect the election enough.
According to RealClearPolling, Trump actually leads by +0.9 in Michigan, while Harris is ahead by just +0.3 in Wisconsin. When it comes to the battleground states, RCP has Trump up overall by +0.4.
RCP's map has become a trending topic over X for Friday, given that with no toss-ups, Trump has an edge of 302 electoral votes to Harris' 236 electoral votes. It's no wonder that Walz has repeatedly found himself stumbling and sputtering about how he wants to get rid of the electoral college, even as the Harris-Walz campaign claims that that's not actually the campaign's position. With 104 electoral votes in the toss-up category, RCP still gives Trump an edge of 219 votes to 215 votes.
That trending map includes Michigan but not Wisconsin.
Even those who still Harris to have the edge for the moment, as Nate Silver does, states are moving in Trump's direction per Silver's model.
Newsweek covered the shift on Friday morning, as Trump-Vance National Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt shared.
It's not just the polls where the race is looking tight, and thus pretty good for Trump. PolyMarket currently shows that Trump and Harris are pretty much tied in Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump leads in Michigan with his chances at 51-49 percent, while Harris has a slight lead of 51-49 percent in Wisconsin.
Overall, Trump has a 53.7 percent chance of winning the election, while Harris' chances are at 45.9 percent.
