We're down to the final four weeks before the election, and the race still remains particularly close. Again, that's not good news for Vice President Kamala Harris, who seems to now be trying to correct course with more media interviews. It's likely too little too late, though, especially when these interviews with friendly sources still turn out terribly. Michigan, especially with the anti-Israel population there, was always going to be something of an interesting state for Harris, especially as polls showed her with an edge against former and potentially future President Donald Trump. Now, though, Harris might not even have Michigan.
RealClearPolling (RCP) currently has Harris leading Trump by +2.0 at the national level, which is where she's hovered around. When it comes to the top battleground states, however, which is where the election will almost certainly be decided, Trump leads by +0.1. Harris is down to just a +0.7 lead in Michigan, though the problems for her go deeper there.
In a poll released over the weekend, a poll for Michigan News Source and MIRS by Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. was released showing that Trump is actually ahead, 49-48 percent among likely voters. In a full field, they're tied at 47 percent each.
The poll was conducted late last month with 709 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.68 percentage points.
📊 MICHIGAN poll by Research for @MIRSnews
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 6, 2024
2-WAY
🟥 Trump: 49%
🟦 Harris: 48%
FULL FIELD
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟨 RFK Jr: 2%
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟪 Oliver: 1%
——
SENATE
🟦 Slotkin: 49%
🟥 Rogers: 44%
——
#59 (2.4/3.0) | 9/30 | 709 LV | ±3.68%https://t.co/4Fki2BCI6U pic.twitter.com/4khZNFuE7q
At best, certain polls show Harris with a slight lead in Michigan within the margin of error, though that's likely not enough in what looks to be such a close and competitive election.
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Although RCP does not include such a poll, the Glengariff Group for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV shows Harris leading Trump by 46.8 percent to Trump's 44.2 percent among likely voters.
📊 MICHIGAN Poll by Glengariff Group for WDIV-TV (Channel 4)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 7, 2024
🟦 Harris: 46.8% (+2.6)
🟥 Trump: 44.2%
🟨 RFK Jr: 4.7%
🟪 Other's 3.6%
August poll - 🔴 Trump+1.2
——
#175 (1.5/3.0) | 10/1-4 | 600 LV | ±4%https://t.co/f5l3rXlHA6 pic.twitter.com/ApohzbZ3Cn
A write-up for The Detroit News was all too happy to highlight such gains for Harris, from the headline of "Kamala Harris gains slight lead over Donald Trump in Michigan, poll shows," to the actual article.
As that piece mentioned:
Harris' advantage was within the margin of error of plus or minus 4 points. However, the numbers were significant because they represented the largest lead that Democratic President Joe Biden, who dropped his reelection bid on July 21, or Harris has had over Trump in four surveys commissioned this year by The News and WDIV-TV.
The contest is close, but there have been shifts among key blocs of voters in the state, said Richard Czuba, founder of the Glengariff Group, a Lansing-based firm that conducted the poll.
“What we look for is where are voters moving in a specific direction," Czuba said. "And for all of the signs we’re seeing in this poll, the movement is in Harris’ direction.”
There's also plenty of commentary on how Trump's edge over Harris on which candidates trust more to handle the economy has dropped, though he's still ahead and by outside of the margin of error.
Eighteen percent of respondents say the economy is the single most important issue, and Trump still leads Harris here, 52-45 percent. Like pretty much all other polls, the economy looks to be a top issue, and one where voters trust Trump over Harris.
The poll of 600 likely Michigan voters was conducted October 1-4 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
A poll on swing states from Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph shows Harris leading by 48-46 against Trump in Michigan. Such a lead is within the margin of error. It's her biggest least of any of the nine states, which for some reason includes Florida and Minnesota. The swing state polls were conducted September 27-October 2.
Swing States poll by @RedfieldWilton
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 7, 2024
Michigan - 🔵 Harris +2 (48-46)
Pennsylvania - 🔵 Harris +1 (48-47)
Wisconsin - 🔵 Harris +1 (47-46)
Nevada - 🔵 Harris+1 (48-47)
Georgia - 🟡 TIE (47-47)
North Carolina - 🔴 Trump +2 (47-45)
Arizona - 🔴 Trump +1 (48-47)
Florida - 🔴 Trump… pic.twitter.com/Pse11kcV7z
With such polls included, 538 shows Harris up by +1.8 in Michigan.
It's worth mentioning that Nate Silver referenced The Detroit News poll in his roundup for Tuesday, in that "Harris also got a poll showing her gaining ground in Michigan." Even then, his forecast still only shows up there by +1.9 over Trump.
Along with another key swing state of Wisconsin, Silver's model shows a margin of +1.9 for Democrats in those states. There's actually been an +0.2 change since last week in favor of Republicans in Michigan.
Free post for you today on understanding model probabilities. Hope this is a useful reminder that the election is really close and not to sweat 55/45 differences — unless you’re betting and maybe not even then.https://t.co/faohzFS0F6
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 8, 2024
When it comes to the Arab population, who certainly play a role in Michigan, Matt covered earlier on Tuesday how Trump leads 46-42 percent among likely Arab voters in a poll from the Arab American Institute.
Even among those not as likely to vote, Trump still leads 42-41 percent.
#New General election poll - Arab voters
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 2, 2024
🔴 Trump 42%
🔵 Harris 41%
Arab American institute - 500 RV - 9/20
Harris has been throwing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu under the bus, including in a "60 Minutes" interview that aired on Monday, the anniversary of the October 7 attacks that Hamas perpetrated against our ally in the Middle East.
The Biden-Harris administration has been increasingly hostile towards Israel and Netanyahu, with Harris a chief part of that. Her Monday statement and remarks about the anniversary referenced "the Palestinian people," and her statement even delved into Lebanon.
I will never forget the horror of October 7, 2023, when Hamas terrorists brutally attacked Israel. Read my full statement: pic.twitter.com/VsSIUgv7k9
— Vice President Kamala Harris (@VP) October 7, 2024
WATCH as Kamala Harris SNUBS Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu:
— Conservative War Machine (@WarMachineRR) October 8, 2024
Whitaker: “Do we have a real close ally in Prime Minister Netanyahu?”
Harris: “With all due respect the better question is do we have an important alliance between the American people and the Israeli… pic.twitter.com/Q2uxkm1Lqc
The vice president was also ratioed over the weekend when she expressed care and concern for Lebanon, even as Americans at home in the southeast region have been hit by Hurricane Helene.
The people of Lebanon are facing an increasingly dire humanitarian situation. I am concerned about the security and well-being of civilians suffering in Lebanon and will continue working to help meet the needs of all civilians there.
— Vice President Kamala Harris (@VP) October 5, 2024
To that end, the United States will provide…
Nevertheless, it's still not enough for the pro-Hamas crowd. The Abandon Harris group, an anti-Israel group that had previously been Abandon Biden, endorsed Green Party candidate Jill Stein for president on Monday.
Abandon Harris Campaign Endorses Jill Stein and Butch Ware for 2024 Presidential Election
— Abandon Harris (@Abandonbiden24) October 7, 2024
"The path to justice is long, painful, and difficult, but it is ours to pave and follow." pic.twitter.com/XgZv5OUB1m
The presidential race in Michigan doesn't merely matter for who wins the state's 15 electoral votes and potentially the overall election, but the winning candidate's could also affect the U.S. Senate race, and thus impact which party controls the chamber.
Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers are facing off to see who will replace retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat.
Forecasts range from a "Toss-Up" race, to one where Slotkin only has a slight advantage in a "Lean" or "Tilt Democratic" race.
