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Did Trump Improve His Chances in This Key Battleground State?

AP Photo/Julia Nikhinson

Georgia has become a battleground state in recent years. President Joe Biden narrowly won its 16 electoral votes in 2020 against former and potentially future President Donald Trump, while both Republican senators were replaced by Democrats in runoff elections. Despite his far-left politics, Senator Raphael Warnock managed to win reelection in yet another runoff in 2022. That being said, Republican Governor Brian Kemp handily won reelection in 2022 in a rematch against Democrat Stacey Abrams, one of the reasons he's likely a key ally for Trump to have, though the two's relationship has been on and off.

Last Thursday, just as Vice President Kamala Harris was giving her speech at the DNC, Trump put out a post indicating that he and Kemp looked to be on good terms once again. 

Trump tagged the governor thanking him for all of his "help and support in Georgia, where a win is so important to the success of our Party and, most importantly, our Country." He also indicated he "look[ed] forward" to working with the governor. 

The post comes after Trump revamped his feud with Kemp at a rally earlier this month, as Guy has been covering. 

In discussing that rally, Guy wrote:

This is, to put it bluntly, gratuitous, counter-productive, and downright moronic.  Trump narrowly lost Georgia in 2020, having alienated just enough of precisely the types of voters who handed Kemp a resounding victory over Stacey Abrams in 2022.  Against a hyped media darling and woman of color who was significantly to the left of the electorate (sound familiar), Kemp put on a clinic and crushed her.  He did so after utterly dismantling Trump's hand-picked primary challenger.  Kemp has a superb operation in the state and has established the roadmap for how Republicans can triumph in that purple state.  Trump is still airing grievances from 2020, loudly and needlessly reminding a specific group of voters precisely why they helped flip the state blue four years ago.  Kemp, fortunately, is not a petty man and remains committed to the overarching goal[.]

He went on to share Kemp posting Trump's Truth Social post addressing the Republican nominee's comments.

In an even more recent article, Guy went on to reference the piece above and add a bit more to his analysis. "As we've written before, perhaps it would be a good idea for Trump to stop attacking the Republican governor of that state, who is much more popular among Georgia's electorate than Trump is.  He has spent more than a week airing his foolish and self-destructive personal grievances against Brian Kemp. She is more than happy to keep gaining on him, in the meantime," he wrote.

Kemp spoke with Fox News' Sean Hannity on Thursday night, not long before Trump tagged the governor in his post. Kemp also posted the day before taking issue with Harris' claims as well as the Biden-Harris agenda. Clearly, he's no fan of the vice president. 

Hannity aptly began the interview with Kemp by making clear that "it's no secret that one of the most important swing states, by far, this year, must win for Republicans, is the great state of Georgia."

As Hannity sang the praises of Kemp and his efforts, the governor made clear that "we gotta win... from the top of the ticket on down," reminding viewers that he has "been saying consistently for a long time we cannot afford another four years of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, and I think, you know, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz would be even worse." 

On that note, Kemp made clear his full support for the Republican nominee, offering in no uncertain terms, "We need to send Donald Trump back to the White House, we need to retake the Senate, we need to hold the House, we need to hold our legislative majorities that we have in the great state of Georgia." 

As he spoke about their efforts in place from the Fourth of July to get the vote out, Kemp reminded that "we cannot take this for granted," adding, "We have got to get the vote out, we've got to stay focused, we've got to stay focused on the future," which includes "hammering Kamala Harris' record" as well as other top Democrats who have been "punishing the American people."

In mentioning a theme of the Harris-Walz campaign of "joy" that the mainstream media has been all too happy to go along with, Kemp pointed out, "I know the Democrats have been talking about the joy of the convention all week, and I feel like the joy is subsiding, and when the sugar high of the convention subsides, people are really going to start thinking 'it's not so joyful when I look in my bank account, it's not joyful when I can't make my car payment, or can't make my rent payment, or I have to decide whether I'm going to buy gas or buy groceries." 

Kemp also brought up Trump's border visit from that day in Arizona, which featured family members of those who have been allegedly murdered by illegal immigrants. "People have not forgotten the disaster at the border, and the millions of millions of illegal people that are in our country that are getting better benefits than some of our hardworking Georgians and hardworking Americans out there."

The governor continued to remind Hannity and viewers of how bad the Biden-Harris administration has been, especially in contrast to the previous Trump administration. 

He also brought up a keen point as to what Republicans need to stay focused on: highlighting Harris' far-left record. "I think when the convention is over with and the race settles back down, when we get past Labor Day, get to the debate, it's going to be really focused on the issues and changing your position at this stage of the game, we cannot let her get away with that, we need to stay focused on her record, it's been bad when she was in San Francisco and representing the state of California, and it's going to be bad if she gets back in the White House," Kemp said about Harris. 

Later in the interview, Kemp again issued the crucial reminder that "we cannot take this race for granted" when talking about his own efforts in Georgia. 

There have been at least the appearance of other issues between Trump and Kemp before this, such as when the governor late last August made clear that he was "not focused on the past" when state Sen. Colton Moore called on him to hold an emergency session to investigate Fulton County DA Fani Willis with the charges she was bringing against Trump. 

Willis and her case regarding the 2020 election results have had plenty of issues on their own, and the Georgia Court of Appeals won't hear arguments to kick her off the case until December 5, one month after the election.

There was also the matter of how Kemp didn't vote for Trump in the Georgia Republican Primary from March 12, held after Super Tuesday, and after former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) had already exited the race.

While CNN's Kaitlan Collins tried to gin up drama by teasing her interview with the governor in a particular way, the nomination had already been decided. Sure enough, Trump officially earned enough delegates on March 12 to become the nominee, with the Washington State primary also taking place that night. 

Thursday's post from Trump could very well be him wising up and keeping his eye on the prize in what will surely be a close and competitive election. This especially as Harris looks to be purposefully avoiding the press, either in interviews or press conferences, as a purposeful campaign tactic. 

Now that Kemp and Trump appear to have moved on from their a feud, it's worthwhile to not only let bygones be bygones, but also call out mainstream media tactics looking to sow discord about Republican unity.

When Trump was facing Biden, he had a healthy lead in Georgia. Per RealClearPolling, he had an average lead of +3.8 over Biden. Now that the race is against Harris, Trump still has a lead there, though it's much smaller, at +1.0. That being said, it's still one of his better battleground states, with the race looking much narrower. The last few polls show Trump leading Harris or that the race is tied in the Peach State. 

Meanwhile, Polymarket shows that Trump looks to have his best chances of winning in Georgia, by 61-39 percent. As of Monday afternoon, those are still Trump's chances, who overall has a 50 percent chance of winning the election to Harris' 49 percent.

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