Not too long ago, Florida was considered a swing state. Former and potentially future President Donald Trump won the Sunshine State by just over a point in 2016, after former President Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012. Republican Governor Ron DeSantis won by particularly narrow margins in 2018, and then by a wider margin in 2022. While Democrats hoped to flip Republican Senator Marco Rubio's seat in 2016, he not only won reelection, he won again in 2022 by double digits. That puts Florida Republicans in a particularly good spot, as Sarah has been covering.
DeSantis' most recent post shared to his political account includes a video clip of just how far Florida has come since 2018 as a red state.
For decades, Florida saw elections determined by razor-thin margins. Democrats had always outnumbered Republicans, including by close to 300,000 in 2018.
— Ron DeSantis (@RonDeSantis) August 14, 2024
We now have over a million more registered Republican voters than Democrats do. We are winning against the left because we… pic.twitter.com/PNSmJgJqBh
Florida held its primaries on Tuesday night for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House races. As Leah covered earlier on Wednesday, Republican Representative Matt Gaetz, who led the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) last year, easily survived his primary against a challenger backed by McCarthy.
There were also school board races. Given how the pandemic and virtual learning underscored the importance of having the right people involved in a child's education and working together with parents, these local races are also extremely important.
Ryan Girdusky referenced how the Duval County school board race was flipped to conservative, and the role his Project 1776 Project PAC played in that race.
A post from Florida's Voice reposted by Girdusky referenced how "bolstered GOP turnout affected the race."
Proud that the @1776ProjectPac played a part in flipping Duval County's school board to conservative https://t.co/2oTEApve48
— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) August 21, 2024
The Republican Party of Florida (RPOF) posted on X on Tuesday night that early results showed Republicans in Florida voted 14 percent more than Democrats in the state did. These factors included having more than 1 million more active voter registered Republicans over Democrats and what the press release described as "significant fundraising achievements."
"If Democrats are joyful about their prospects, their voters would have shown up to vote. Florida Democrats got trumped," RPOF Chairman Evan Power said in a statement, likely in reference to how the Harris-Walz ticket has been campaigning on this sense of "joy."
"What is clear is that our voters are fired up and eager to vote in support of our great Republican candidates who promote commonsense policies that work. With that support, Florida will continue to lead and succeed," Power continued.
In early results, a whopping 14% more Florida Republicans exercised their right to vote over Democrats. “If Democrats are joyful about their prospects, their voters would have shown up to vote. Florida Democrats got trumped.” pic.twitter.com/Gdj2TLnQ0X
— Florida GOP (@FloridaGOP) August 20, 2024
On Wednesday morning, RPOF also put out a statement highlighting even more advantages that Republicans had over Democrats in the state. The post shared over X highlighted "massive turnout and huge victories," leading to enthusiasm for that idea that "a RED WAVE is coming this November."
Duval and Pinellas Counties were flipped in voter turnout and that Duval school board race was also referenced. That 14 percent voter turnout advantage meant "Beating Democrats by Nearly 30 points."
Gaetz also wasn't the only Republican facing a contested primary to win on Tuesday night. "All Florida Republican Congressional Candidates Sailed Through Their Primary Races," the press release highlighted.
Republicans even led Democrats in early voting, by 7 percent. While that's usually an area where Democrats hold an advantage, we saw Republicans with such an advantage in the 2022 race, and Florida went on to see a red wave that year.
In addition to a statement that celebrated their successes, Power also spoke about the importance of not getting complacent. "Having said that, we take nothing for granted. We are thankful to our candidates and voters who participated in this important electoral process and we will continue to work hard as if we were coming from behind. The November general election is right around the corner, we will be ready," Power said.
The 2024 Florida Primary Election was a MAJOR success with massive voter turnout and huge victories. It’s clear: a RED WAVE is coming this November. pic.twitter.com/CaQHhMosKu
— Florida GOP (@FloridaGOP) August 21, 2024
The November elections were always likely to favor Republicans, but Power makes a crucial point by saying to "take nothing for granted." Democrats also seem to think they have a chance in the Sunshine State.
Even with Democrats supposedly being more enthusiastic about Vice President Kamala Harris as their nominee as opposed to President Joe Biden, that doesn't mean Democrats will actually flip Florida in November. Trump now claims residence there, DeSantis is campaigning for him, and the state has been trending red for a few years now. It may be that way to stay.
We covered last month how it's just almost certainly not in the cards for Democrats this cycle. Last week, POLITICO again raised the hope that Harris could win the state's 30 electoral votes – up from 2020, when the state awarded 29 votes – but it has perhaps been the most shamelessly pro-Harris media outlet around presently when it comes to the cover it has provided to the Harris-Walz ticket. Newsweek also more recently put out a headline asking the same question. RealClearPolling still has Trump up by an average of +6.3 in Florida.
Senate Democrats also look to flip the Senate seat currently held by Republican Senator Rick Scott, who flipped the seat when he ousted former Democratic Senator Bill Nelson in the 2018 election. As evidenced by his cringeworthy speech on Tuesday night at the DNC, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) certainly hopes that's the case. The seat is still regarded as "Likely Republican."
As was largely expected, Scott won his primary on Tuesday night and will face former Democratic Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who represented Florida's 26th Congressional District for only one term. She was replaced by Republican Representative Carlos Gimenez after the 2020 election.
