Given that Democrats were concerned about a lack of voter enthusiasm and turnout for the November election, it's no wonder that President Joe Biden was forced out of the race. Now that Vice President Kamala Harris is almost certainly going to replace Biden as the nominee, despite never winning a primary, Democrats seem to be more hopeful about voters rallying around her. Will that really make the difference, though?
CNN's Harry Enten made the case Wednesday that we could see record turnout for this election. As he explained to anchor Kate Bolduan, there looks to be an increase in enthusiasm and voter turnout with Biden out of the race. Before he dropped out, and since that disastrous June 27 debate, voter turnout looked to be lower than in the summer of 2020.
"We were looking at a much, potentially much lower turnout this go around in 2024 than 2020. So, [these numbers are] 'almost certain to vote' in the election. You look post-debate 2024," Enten explained, highlighting a 55 percent figure of registered voters. "That was actually the same as it was pre-debate, 55 percent. It was significantly lower than it was in 2020 during the summer when it was 60 percent."
The screen Enten referenced showed registered voters polled by The New York Times/Siena College.
It's not just the news that Harris looks to be the nominee that could give an enthusiasm bump. Candidates tend to have a bump when they first announce, as looks to be the case for Harris and her honeymoon period. She might also get that when she announces her running mate and/or at the DNC later this month. There's the RNC as well, which took place last month to nominate former and potentially future President Donald Trump.
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"But look at where we are now. We are now at 62 percent after the RNC. After Kamala Harris gets into this race. And that is actually a higher number than what we saw during the summer of 2020 when it was 60 percent," Enten explained.
Does that mean we could see record turnout? Enten seems to think it could happen. "So, at this particular point, as we look at the math right now, if we are trusting what voters are saying, it's actually possible to see higher turnout than what we saw in 2020, which is what you pointed out was record turnout. So, quite the shift here. It's not just enthusiasm, it's actually people saying that they're going to go out and almost certainly vote," he continued.
Enten later explained that this could be because the number of double-hater voters has gone down, even noting that they've done so "dramatically," pointing to an Ipsos poll.
In posting the clip to his X account, Enten noted he "wouldn't be shocked by record turnout in 2024," again highlighting the decrease in double-hater voters, noting, "Folks actually like their choices for president."
I wouldn't be shocked by record turnout in 2024. In a major turnaround from pre-Biden dropping out, more voters now say they're almost certain to vote than at this point in 2020.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 31, 2024
Why? Folks actually like their choices for president. The "double-hater" % has dropped significantly pic.twitter.com/tjLWcJs0JO
Enten and Bolduan also joked back and forth that this could hinge on whether or not voters who they say will almost certainly vote can actually be believed. "I mean, if we don’t, then this is all not going to work," Enten offered in reply to Bolduan's quip.
As much as Enten and Boulduan joke about this issue, it could be a very real concern. It's not just that voters may not be entirely truthful. There are plenty of reasons to take polls with a grain of salt, especially when there was no red wave in the 2022 midterm election. Even if voters say they're almost certain to vote, and they mean it now, Harris' honeymoon period could come to a halting end.
This honeymoon period and any poll bump Harris has seen should thus be taken with a grain of salt. She might be seen as new and fresh to voters now, especially since she's not Biden, but the more voters learn about Harris' far-left record, the more likely they are to become turned off to keep this race close and competitive for a Trump-Harris matchup.
That GovTrack took down data showing Harris was the most liberal senator in 2019 and one of the least bipartisan ones, as well as media outlets trying to cover for her record, especially but not limited to the border, makes exposing Harris' far-left record more difficult but not impossible.
The biggest hope is likely with young people, especially since this voting bloc was not enthusiastic about Biden. A Quinnipiac University poll released shortly after Biden dropped out showed Trump leading Harris by double digits with such a demographic. Then again, a YouGov poll and a recently released Change Research poll show Harris leading Trump by double digits with young voters.
General Election - Age 18-29 @YouGov Poll:
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 23, 2024
🔵 Harris 58% (+25)
🔴 Trump 33% @QuinnipiacPoll
🔴Trump 58% (+19)
🔵 Harris 39%
Change Research poll among 2,228 registered voters aged 18-30 in swing states, with leans.
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 31, 2024
🟦 Harris: 53% (+24)
🟥 Trump: 29%
🟨 RFK Jr: 8%
🟪 Other: 5%
—
Investing in US fund | 2,228 RV | 7/22-24https://t.co/DndQy4gg3e pic.twitter.com/seaiRQDVLN
A June CBS News/YouGov America poll, though, not only highlighted young voters' disenchantment with the Democratic Party, Biden, and voting but also how this demographic is the least likely to vote. So we'll see what, if any, enthusiasm comes from these voters.
The most recent poll from The Economist/YouGov shows Harris with a slight edge over Trump, at 46-44 percent among registered voters. That being said, Trump voters are more likely to say they're "extremely enthusiastic" to vote in the presidential election, with 54 percent saying so compared to the 40 percent of Harris voters who say so.
In sharing coverage from Mediaite of the CNN segment, Cygnal pollster Brent Buchanan offered a word of caution about record turnout, specifically regarding whether or not this voter enthusiasm and certainty sentiment will last.
"It's no surprise more voters are now interested in the election without the 'Boring Biden' factor. The question is: how long can it last? How long does she get a free pass before we get down to contrasting records between the two candidates? Our data indicates she still performs just like a 'generic Democrat' who’s preferred over a 'fully known' Trump. That does not offer the edge Dems need," Buchanan offered in his daily take Thursday morning.
