Last week, as we covered at the time, it was announced that Vice President Kamala Harris was making a rather curious campaign stop in Houston, Texas--not a swing state--to campaign on her pet issue of abortion. She was also there to support Democratic Rep. Colin Allred in his race to unseat Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. Last Friday's rally was marred not just by fearmongering on the abortion issue, but a non-performance from Beyonce as well as a medical emergency that abortion doctors present on stage at the rally failed to do anything about. Late Tuesday night, Cygnal also released a poll showing that Allred is still down, just as Harris is, who has even less of a chance of winning the state.
The poll shows former and potentially future President Donald Trump leading by 51.2-43.3 over Harris, while Cruz leads by 48.6-45.1 percent over Allred.
📊 TEXAS poll by @cygnal
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 30, 2024
🟥 Trump: 51% (+8)
🟦 Harris: 43%
—
TX Senate
🟥 Cruz (inc): 49% (+4)
🟦 Allred: 45%
🟪 Brown: 3%
#71 (2.1/4/3.0) | 10/26-38 | 600 LV https://t.co/1Lueth58a0 pic.twitter.com/JsSh1rCLEl
Cruz maintains his lead even as his image ratings (51-46 percent unfavorable/favorable) are worse than Allred's ratings (41.3-42.5 percent unfavorable/favorable) and as swing voters look to be increasingly favoring Allred. The poll's "Insights & Analysis" notes that "Cruz’s four-point lead is larger than his margin of victory in 2018 when he defeated Beto O’Rourke by two points. Pollster John Rogers also highlighted how "Allred is losing on his home turf, down 5 percent in the Dallas-Fort Worth media market."
Rogers had a brutal assessment of Allred's chances in particular. "For years, Texas has been the 'white whale' for national Democrat donors and operatives—but once again, the Lone Star State will remain red—likely more red than in 2020," he said. "Don't expect that to change—in addition to the Rio Grande Valley's shift to the right, new Texans also favor Cruz, Trump, and the GOP." Rogers also provided more insight on the affect that Harris' rally had for Allred, or lack thereof. "Vice President Harris’s Houston rally may have generated headlines and filled her campaign coffers, but it seems unlikely to have swayed any undecided voters to Colin Allred in the Senate race. Harris’s net image is underwater at -11, with a majority of swing voters holding an unfavorable view of her," he added.
When it comes to that image rating that Rogers referenced, 53.7 percent of voters hold an unfavorable view of the Democratic nominee, while 43.1 percent have a favorable view. In contrast, 50.6 percent have a favorable view of Trump, while 48 percent have an unfavorable view.
The "Insights & Analysis" section also focused on how Harris is performing closer to Hillary Clinton in 2016 than now President Joe Biden did in 2020, who performed better than the Democratic nominee before him:
- The presidential race stands at 51% Donald Trump, 43% Kamala Harris with 4% of voters choosing a third-party candidate and only 2% saying they are undecided.
- Donald Trump is performing near his 2016 share (52.5%) and his 2020 share (52.1%).
- In contrast, Kamala Harris is running closer to Clinton’s ballot share in 2016 (43.5%) than Biden’s share in 2020 (46.5%).
- Trump is now capturing nearly 2x more of the Black vote (20%) than in 2020 (9%).
- Harris’s net image is -11 (43% fav / 54% unfav), the weakest of any figure tested.
- Despite their best efforts, it appears likely national Democrats’ quadrennial goal of flipping Texas blue will have to wait another cycle.
The poll also looked to Texas' voters thoughts on the issue of abortion, the major topic of that Harris rally. Respondents were given six options to choose from, in addition to there being an "unsure" option. Just 16.6 percent agree with the statement that "abortion should be completely legal until birth," which is the stance of the Democratic Party. Not even a majority of Democrats respondents hold such a position, though a plurality, at 30 percent, do. The option most selected is that "abortion should be illegal after 6 weeks, with exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother," which 18.9 percent of voters went with.
Just 10 percent of voters see abortion as their top issue, making it the fourth most important issue. Meanwhile, 54.4 percent of Texans see inflation/the economy or illegal immigration as the most important issue, which Rogers highlighted as one of his key takeaways.
The poll surveyed 600 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It was conducted October 26-28, starting just one day after the Harris rally in Houston. "Our survey was conducted Saturday-Monday, beginning a day after Harris's Houston rally on Friday. Harris is a drag on Allred and down-ballot Democrats," Rogers also mentioned, highlighting the significance of the timing. When it comes to those down-ballot Democrats, Republicans are up by +9 on the generic congressional ballot.
Brent Buchanan, the president of Cygnal, also mentioned last week when previewing the rally that "Allred has no shot of winning in Texas..."
Although such a poll is not included by RealClearPolling, the Cygnal poll lines up quite neatly with the RCP average, which shows a lead for Cruz of +4.2 over Allred and a lead for Trump of +7.0 over Harris.
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