With all the players involved in trying to get him to step aside, it's increasingly likely that President Joe Biden will withdraw from his race for reelection in a matter of days. Polls show considerable uncertainty about Biden's ability to serve and what Democrats should do if they don't go with Biden. The Democrats are in disarray, to be sure.
YouGov America has been releasing several polls on the concerns voters have with Biden, especially since his disastrous debate performance against former and potentially future President Donald Trump on June 27. Its initial poll showed that by significant margins, respondents felt Biden had a poor performance, while Trump won that debate.
Calls have become more pronounced for Biden to step aside, including from top Democrats like former President Barack Obama, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), and Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). His family members, once stubborn about him remaining in the race, are now reportedly having such conversations.
A particularly recent YouGov America poll, released on Friday morning, shows that Americans are split on how likely Biden will step down. Forty-four percent of Americans surveyed believe it is "very likely" (16 percent) or "somewhat likely" (28 percent) "that Joe Biden will step aside as the Democratic nominee for president and allow someone else to run." Another 24 percent say it's "not very likely," while 14 percent say it's "not at all likely." Eighteen percent are not sure.
Biden's fellow Democrats are also split, as 45 percent believe it's "very likely" (14 percent) or "somewhat likely" (31 percent) that Biden will step aside. Twenty-five percent say it's "not very likely," while 15 percent each say it's "not at all likely" or they're unsure.
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That poll was conducted July 18-19 with 4,309 U.S. adults. The timing is particularly significant, given Axios' report from Thursday that Biden may be dropping out as soon as this weekend.
% of Americans / Democrats saying Biden is very or somewhat likely to step aside as nominee:
— YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) July 19, 2024
• 44% / 45% on July 18-19 YouGov poll of 4,309 U.S. adults
• 18% / 16% on July 13-16 Economist/YouGov poll of 1,582 U.S. adult citizenshttps://t.co/YlwI55kosvhttps://t.co/6EVCxiiZKp pic.twitter.com/kjHacAo5Kj
A previous poll from YouGov, conducted July 12-16, similarly showed that Democrats were split. Thus, even before the reports, the confidence among Biden's fellow Democrats did not look particularly high.
While 27 percent of "Democrats and Independents who lean Democratic said Biden should "definitely not" step aside to let another Democrat take the nomination, 23 percent said he "definitely" should, while 20 percent said he "probably" should. Sixteen percent he should "probably not" and 14 percent were not sure.
That being said, 61 percent of respondents said it was either "not very likely" (35 percent) or "not at all likely" (26 percent) that Biden would drop out.
If Biden were to step down, among several listed alternative candidates, Vice President Kamala Harris had the strongest support to become the new nominee. Thirty-seven percent "strongly approve" of such an option, while 33 percent "somewhat approve of" that option.
Another popular option is the idea that "The Democratic Party organizes debates among leading candidates to gauge voter preferences before choosing a nominee," something 29 percent say they "strongly approve" of and 33 percent "somewhat approve" of.
That being said, there isn't much time left. The DNC begins on August 19, which is exactly a month away. Democrats were going to go with a virtual nomination, but scrapped the plan to rush it. The general election meanwhile is 109 days away.
Democrats and those who lean Democratic were also asked what the Democratic Party should do if Biden stays in the race. While a majority, 61 percent, said that the Democratic Party should "Continue supporting Biden as its nominee," a not insignificant 24 percent said they should "Attempt to replace Biden with a different nominee."
Another interesting note about the poll is that respondents were asked which words better describe Trump or Biden, and many of the findings were just brutal for Biden, including that:
- 56 percent of respondents believe Biden is more "forgetful."
- 49 percent believe he is more "elderly."
- 40 percent believe he is more "out of touch," a blow to Biden surrogates on their narrative.
- Trump has a slight edge with respondents who say he is more "authentic," with 36 percent saying so compared to the 34 percent who say so about Biden.
- 39 percent say Trump is more "intelligent," compared to the 33 percent who say so about Biden.
- By 41-30 percent, Trump is regarded as more "competent" compared to Biden.
- By 46-28 percent, Trump is regarded as more so "a strong leader."
- Trump is regarded as more "mentally fit," by 45-22 percent. More respondents, 23 percent, are likely to say "neither" candidate than they are to say Biden is more likely to be.
That poll included 1,151 U.S. citizens with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
Other polls have not been too helpful toward Biden. For instance, on June 28, the day after the debate, a poll from YouGov America found that a plurality, 31 percent, were "not at all confident" in "Joe Biden's ability to serve as president for the rest of his first term, which ends in January." That poll included 4,331 U.S. adults surveyed.
If there's such low confidence in Biden, perhaps the call should be for him to resign from the presidency in addition to stepping aside. It's a question CNN's Scott Jennings raised earlier this month.
Another poll from July 12, with 11,412 U.S. adults surveyed, found that a plurality, 34 percent, believe Biden's legacy will be "poor." The next highest response was the 19 percent who believe Biden's legacy will be "average." Not even most Democrats think he will be "outstanding," which 22 percent of Democrats think his legacy will be. Rather, a plurality, 32 percent, said it will be "above average."
As a president, how do you think Joe Biden will go down in history? 💭
— YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) July 12, 2024
🔵 54% of Democrats say Biden will be remembered as outstanding or above average.
🔴 7% of Republicans say Biden will be remembered as outstanding or above average.https://t.co/LBdzxFpVfX pic.twitter.com/PFSozW5IVz
But, perhaps most damning to Biden and the idea of his legacy is that a plurality, 34 percent, believes if Biden stepped aside it would "have no effect on his legacy," with 22 percent saying they aren't sure. Democrats are more split. While 27 percent believe it will "have no effect on his legacy," slightly more, 32 percent, say it would "help his legacy."
Biden, perhaps even more so for the Biden family overall, cares about his legacy. Dropping out might not even matter in that case.
Will Biden dropping out even help? A slight plurality, 30 percent, believes that Biden stepping aside will "Increase Democrats' chances of winning the presidency." Slightly more Democrats, 35 percent, believe it will increase their chances.
The weekend is almost here. The Biden camp continues to insist that the president is still committed to staying in the race, but we'll see what happens from here.
What would happen if Biden were to step down as the Democratic nominee? 🤔
— YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) July 12, 2024
📊 A recent YouGov poll finds that 30% of Americans believe the Democrats’ chances of winning the presidency would improve if Biden stepped down.
📊 The number is slightly higher (35%) among Democrats,… pic.twitter.com/jYFuRK487z
