Earlier on Monday, Guy highlighted a series of polls following former and potentially future President Donald Trump's conviction last Thursday on 34 felony counts in the hush money "trial." As his headline suggests, there's still potentially cause for concern. We keep saying that this looks to be a close and competitive race, because it certainly does look that way. However, if President Joe Biden can't make up the numbers enough, even if/when enough people are turned off by the "convicted felon" label for Trump, it's still bad news for the deeply unpopular incumbent president. Sure enough, there's been more polls showing "unchanged" views among respondents, as well as how Trump and Biden are tied.
On Sunday, CBS News released their poll with YouGov, with the headline, "Views of Trump trial unchanged following verdict — CBS News poll."
As that write-up explains, "Views about former President Donald Trump's New York criminal trial after the verdict look much like they did before it took place... In all, we recontacted the Americans we interviewed before the verdict was reached, and hearing the jury's decision hasn't changed a lot of their minds."
When it comes to the specific findings, 57 percent believe the jury reached the "right verdict," while 43 percent thought it was the "wrong verdict." Among the 43 percent who chose the latter, 90 percent said they believe "The charges against Donald Trump were politically motivated," 87 percent said "There wasn't enough evidence to convict Donald Trump," and 81 percent said "The jury was biased against Donald Trump." Similarly, 56 percent of respondents somehow thought Trump received a "fair trial," while 44 percent thought it was an "unfair trial."
A majority, at 51 percent, believe that Trump is "not fit" to be president. Someone should ask the same about Biden.
Reps overwhelmingly believe Trump was treated unfairly.
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) June 2, 2024
Those who say the verdict was wrong call the jury biased, the evidence insufficient, and the charges politically motivated. https://t.co/qDK11YB4XQ pic.twitter.com/j1GSEJgjZU
*New*
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) June 2, 2024
Views about Trump’s NYC criminal trial after the verdict look much like they did before the verdict.
Just over half the country thought Trump was guilty before the verdict, and now just over half think the jury reached the right verdict. And say the trial was fair. pic.twitter.com/9EyU9U672b
To be clear, the poll results aren't all that great for Trump, especially among Independents, but they could be worse, especially since there's that "views unchanged" headline and overall narrative.
When respondents were asked to "check all that apply" among eight words to describe how they felt, the most common selected was "unsurprised," which 39 percent of respondents expressed feeling. Fifty percent of those who felt the verdict was wrong expressed feeling this way, while 30 percent of those who felt it was the right one felt that way. With how much the judge and prosecutors were out to get Trump from the start, the verdict ought to indeed make people feel "unsurprised."
Overall, 34 percent of respondents felt "disappointed," with 72 percent of those who felt the verdict was the wrong one saying so, followed next by 31 percent who said they felt "glad," which 51 percent of those who said it was the right verdict expressed feeling. The least selected response was "hopeful," which 19 percent of respondents overall felt, though 32 percent who said the verdict was the right one felt this way.
As much as Democrats may regard such a verdict as a win, it's only temporary, given that Trump's conviction will almost certainly be overturned on appeal, and he could still win this election in the meantime. Regardless, norms and precedence have been completely unpended as the current president appears to take delight in his top political opponent being found guilty of felony charges.
Another overall loss for everyone is how the case has shattered trust in the institutions. A plurality of overall respondents, at 40 percent, say the case has made them "less confident in the U.S. justice system." Thirty-three percent say it's had "no impact," and 27 percent say it's made them "more confident."
Broken down by party, 57 percent of Democrats say it's made them "more confident" in the system, while 74 percent of Republicans say it's made them "less confident." A plurality of Independents, at 43 percent, say it's had "no impact."
One of the better findings for Trump is that a plurality, at 45 percent, say that Trump should not serve prison time for his conviction. Thirty-eight percent say he should, and 17 percent are unsure. Alarmingly, 75 percent of Democrats think he should, though a plurality of Independents, at 48 percent, do not. Democrats are really leaning into seeking jail time for Trump, though, given that, as Katie highlighted earlier, those like Rep. Adam Schiff of California, who is running for U.S. Senate, is fundraising off of such a hope.
There's mixed sentiments on how far the particularly partisan and biased judge, Acting New York County Supreme Court Justice Juan Manuel Merchan, will go beyond how he already made the case unfair for Trump, in addition to his conflicts of interest. He's clearly out to get Trump, but, as Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) pointed out on Thursday night in response to the "guilty" verdict, he's likely not that "stupid," considering jailing Trump would trigger immediate appeals.
Going back to why respondents might find the verdict to be the wrong one, it wasn't mentioned in the poll's toplines, but it's worth reminding that Merchan told the jury that they did not have to reach a unanimous decision on the chargers or determine what crime was committed.
There’s disagreement on what punishment fits the crime, if any.
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) June 2, 2024
Most Americans do not say Trump should serve time in prison for his conviction, but views here are also very partisan. pic.twitter.com/OtTS7a5hAl
This post-conviction poll was conducted May 30-June 1, with 989 U.S. adults who had participated in the May 14-21 survey. The recontact rate was 71 percent and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points.
There's also been several polls released since the conviction, testing respondents' views on a head to head matchup between Trump and Biden, which has shown mixed results. Beyond the ones that Guy highlighted, there's an I&I/TPP poll that shows a tie with the two men enjoying 41 percent support each.
The headline actually focuses on good news for Trump, reading, "Despite Court ‘Guilty’ Verdict, Trump Gains On Biden In Court Of Voter Opinion: I&I/TIPP Poll." The write-up from there highlights it even more so [Emphasis added]:
The stunning felony conviction of former President Donald Trump garnered headlines around the world and created sharp political arguments across the U.S. But did it affect the presidential race? The answer is yes. It seems to have actually helped Trump, the June I&I/TIPP Poll shows.
The poll was taken from Wednesday, May 29, through Friday, May 31. The verdict against Trump in New York state court was rendered on Thursday, May 30. So a significant share of the 1,675 registered voters who took the national online I&I/TIPP Poll actually knew that Trump had been found guilty of 34 felony counts.
So did Trump’s guilty verdict change minds, weakening his support? On the contrary, it seems.
...
One thing is clear and incontrovertible: No case like this has ever been tried before, and the clear political biases evident during the trial are already being harshly criticized by attorneys on both sides of the political spectrum. But whether an appeal will result in the unanimous jury decision being overturned is unclear at best.
As to whether this would keep the former president from reclaiming the White House, Trump perhaps had the final say immediately after his conviction: “The real verdict is gonna be Nov. 5 by the people, and they know what happened here today. Everybody knows what happened here.”
As the I&I/TIPP Poll suggests, at least for now, Trump does not seem to be politically damaged by his legal troubles. He may even be politically stronger.
Last month, Biden enjoyed 42 percent to Trump's 40 percent support in such a poll, which shows Trump is actually going up while Biden is going down.
Independents also favor Trump over Biden by 38-26 percent, with 22 percent saying "other" and 15 percent undecided. Independents have been more favorable towards Trump, as polls overall have shown.
The poll was conducted May 29-31, with 1,675 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
New I&I/TIPP (A+) National presidential election poll
— Red Lion Politics (@lion_politics) June 3, 2024
🔴Donald Trump - 41% (Tied)
🔵Joe Biden - 41%
Last poll: Biden+2
(Post verdict poll)
Despite Court ‘Guilty’ Verdict, Trump Gains On Biden In Court Of Voter Opinion: I&I/TIPP Poll https://t.co/lwvxSBYaVd
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) June 3, 2024
As of Monday afternoon, Trump still has a lead of 0.5+ per RealClearPolling, with the I&I/TPP poll included. Trump also has a lead overall in all the key battleground states.
There's also the factor of motivating the Republican base even more so to vote for Trump after such a sham trial. It would be preferable for Trump to be able to run without the label of "convicted felon" that Democrats are hanging on him, that Alex Soros, whose father, George Soros, funded DA Alvin Bragg, is pushing for. But, this is the situation and these are the cards that have been dealt, until and unless Trump's conviction is overturned on appeal, though that likely won't come until after the election.
It will also be a curious thought as to whether or not voters will be so forthcoming with pollsters now. Democrats are very much pushing for stigmatizing Trump with that "convicted felon" label. Voters may pick up on that, and thus be too ashamed to admit much to a pollster or while in a focus group. Election Day itself is another story, especially when it comes to secret ballots.
