Super Tuesday this week went pretty much as expected. Former and potentially future President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden won all but one contest each, with Biden losing America Samoa and Trump losing to Vermont. However, Trump and Biden could hardly have had more different ways of addressing their wins, as Guy highlighted on Wednesday morning. Yet how the Biden reelection campaign responded actually came as a surprise to some.
As Pollster Frank Luntz shared to his X account, he offered his election analysis on BBC News, and he could hardly hide his lack of enthusiasm about a rematch between Trump and Biden. When speaking to the lack of appetite Americans have for that rematch, and the problems to be had with the candidates, Luntz offered that "every week [Biden] gets weaker and weaker as more and more people decide that he's too old."
"But this is who it's going to be, and God help us," Luntz candidly shared as he made his own discontent quite obvious.
The anchor then discussed how each campaign responded, which was "just a written statement from Joe Biden," while we saw "free-flowing Donald Trump" come out to give remarks at Mar-a-Lago. "What are the optics of that?"
"Get used to it," Luntz said without hesitation, "because Joe Biden doesn't have the ability to run a full campaign." Luntz further explained that the president is going to use what's described as "a rose garden strategy" and "stay at home." That doesn't mean Biden gets to hide completely, though. "But when you do that, you still have to meet with the press, you still have to give people a chance to hear you and get at you, and as this campaign goes forward, it's going to become more and more difficult for him to do it."
Luntz wondered if Biden was even going to participate in the debates, which, as Katie covered, Trump just challenged him to take part in. "Every speech that he gives... becomes potentially cataclysmic," Luntz also said, as he in particular previewed the State of the Union address taking place later on Thursday.
The anchor wondered why it was, then, that Biden wouldn't address the American people after his win to try to reassure them. "When you're facing criticism about your age and your physical abilities, and some have questioned his mental abilities as well," as the anchor phrased it, though that would be an understatement, "why would you just do a written statement tonight of all nights" on Super Tuesday.
"You should be speaking," Luntz acknowledged. "But you're not going to speak if you're nervous," as he then reminded viewers of the press briefing that Biden gave last month on a Thursday evening. He not only acted defensive and angry when confronted with questions about his age after Special Counsel Robert Hur found he was too old to charge for mishandling of classified documents, but the president mixed up the presidents of Mexico and Egypt. This came after Biden had already mixed up living and dead foreign leaders in public events before that.
Luntz became particularly passionate as he reminded viewers that Trump actually benefits when Democrats attack him, just as he's done with the various indictments brought against him.
"Every time they attack Donald Trump, he gets stronger. Every indictment his numbers went up. Every time he got kicked off the ballot, his numbers go up," Luntz reminded. "The thing that I say to the Democrats, if you dislike Donald Trump so much why are you so pathetic in your opposition to him? They don't know what to say, they don't know how to do it, they're so breathless in their in their hate of him, that they're making him stronger and stronger every time."
The pollster then went on to make the key point that "this is not a nationwide election," but rather it's actually swing states that will decide the election, with only a very small amount of voters who can be moved. Trump continues to lead in these swing states, as multiple polls consistently show.
While Luntz's post highlighted that the "biggest surprise" from Super Tuesday was that Biden only gave a written statement to ask "is his team afraid of him showing signs of mental decline," it was former Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-FL) who raised that point during a panel discussion.
"I actually think the biggest surprise for me tonight was that the president didn't come out and address the nation on Super Tuesday, and he put a carefully crafted statement that was written by his staff out." Murphy did go on to make a realistic observation though from there about the Biden strategy. "You can run a campaign from your basement when COVID is all across this country. You cannot run a campaign hidden away," she acknowledged.
As she too previewed the State of the Union address, Murphy offered "we'll have an opportunity to see whether or not he can read from a teleprompter in a way that makes him seem competent, and if he can make any of those moments like he did in the last State of the Union, in response, you know, kind of live to the feedback that he's getting from Republicans."
Murphy raised other problem areas for the president, pointing out "and actually quite honestly, he may be getting feedback from Democrats that isn't to his liking," especially with the Israel-Hamas conflict.
If Murphy really does consider it to be a surprise, it's no wonder that she's a former member of Congress, having retired rather than run for reelection in 2022 and risk losing her seat. Sure enough she was replaced by a Republican, Rep. Cory Mills.
Especially given what Luntz himself said during the segment, and what multiple polls suggest, Murphy's view is likely a minority one if she really is surprised. She may more likely be disappointed or fearful ahead of November, and she has reason to be.
Murphy raised yet another problem area for Biden later on in the panel discussion. When asked if Biden will "energize" people enough, the former congresswoman didn't express much hope.
"I think right now it's hard to see him energizing the base, and we really need the base. And the base is young voters and where his poll numbers with young voters are atrocious, and that's bad for him not just at the polls, but in the run up to Election Day," Murphy highlighted, a point that's received plenty of coverage.
"We rely on young voters to get out the vote to basically run our field operations. We rely on that energy to actually get other people out to vote and run campaigns. And without that enthusiasm in that group, we're not going to have the workforce basically to run a really effective campaign," she went on to also admit.
Luntz raised other points about the election in posts from Wednesday as he draw similarities to the 2016 presidential campaign. While Hillary Clinton was largely expected to pull off a win, it was Trump who emerged victorious.
It's also worth reminding that Luntz was warning about Biden's vulnerabilities last month as well, as we addressed in another VIP piece at the time. Since then, though, the pollster seems to have only solidified how he feels about the current president's chances of winning reelection.
"The public is coming to a conclusion that Joe Biden cannot take this country forward and he seems to be ignoring that conclusion, is determined to run, and frankly... if this continues, Donald Trump is the next president," Luntz offered when appearing on CNBC's "Squawk Box" in early February, back when a rematch from 2020 still seemed pretty likely, but not yet quite so certain.
