Monday's VIP piece covered how President Joe Biden's performance among black voters in Michigan looked to be significantly slacking compared to 2020. Of course, Michigan as a whole presents a problem for the president, as Biden is having problems with the Muslim and Arab-American populations as well. Former and potentially future President Donald Trump, Biden's likely opponent once more, is also leading in the key battleground state. Interestingly, another poll shows Biden is faring poorly with another key demographic that helped him win in 2020: young people.
Axios on Monday released a write-up of its Axios-Generation Lab survey of 1,073 young voters, specifically those aged 18-34. While Biden enjoys more support than Trump, his lead is narrow, 52-48 percent. It's just outside the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The poll was conducted February 3-14.
Among those 42 percent of voters who say they're "100% guaranteed" to vote, Biden's support grows to 59 percent. Twenty-eight percent of respondents say they will "probably" vote and "plan to" do.
Young voters aren't the most likely to get out to actually vote – that would be older voters. Indeed, the write-up notes "many young voters are disillusioned with political process and the lack of choice and younger candidates" and gives examples of people saying as much.
Last December, Axios highlighted how young voters, specifically those aged 18-29, are less enthusiastic compared to 2019, citing a poll from the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School.
While the poll's key findings note that abortion along with the economy is a top issue, the economy is by far regarded as more important. Thirty-nine percent say the economy is the issue that matters the most, while abortion comes in at a distant second with 16 percent saying as much. That's not great news for Biden, as other polls have shown that young people, as do other demographics, have a negative view of the economy.
NewsNation's coverage of the poll pointed to how other polls have shown support for Trump among the demographic:
Other polls have shown Biden trailing with young voters. A New York Times/Siena College survey in December found Trump (49%) leading Biden (43%) among voters under 30. An NBC News poll in November showed Trump ahead of Biden by four points with voters under 35.
Newsweek on Tuesday also published no less than two articles covering Trump's support with Gen Z voters according to a Harvard CAPS-Harris poll released Monday. "Gen Z Loves Donald Trump More Than Any Other Age Group," one headline read, highlighting how 64 percent of voters aged 18-24 approved of Trump's job as president. Another headline read, "Gen Z Backs Donald Trump Shaking Up the Country," which addressed how 65 percent of that same age group said they believe he would "shake up the country for the better" when asked if they think "Donald Trump is someone who will shake up the country for the better or do you think he is a danger to democracy and will hopelessly divide the country if elected?"
One issue not mentioned by the key findings from the Axios-Generation Lab survey is the Israel-Hamas War. It still finds its way into the Axios write-up, though, as it claims that "polls show Biden's staunch support for Israel hurting him with younger voters."
Axios is hardly the only one to mention what the leftist media regards to be supposed "staunch support for Israel." Even late last year, when the conflict was barely a few months old, pollsters were crediting what support Biden had shown to Israel as his reason for a drop in support. Last November, NBC News put out a headline highlighting, "Biden's standing hits new lows amid Israel-Hamas war." That Biden received low marks from his fellow Democrats on foreign policy especially, including regarding Israel, was a big takeaway.
Biden has expressed concern about how Israel is hurting his chances with young voters, and even expressed as much to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Axios reported on that very situation last month, making the "staunch support for Israel" even more of an odd term.
As the war progresses, Biden looks to be showing even less support for Israel. He's causing considerable confusion about his timetable for a ceasefire, too.
Further, Trump is an incredibly pro-Israel candidate and had a pro-Israel record when in office. If Biden's margin over Trump with a key demographic wasn't so narrow, his supposed support for Israel could be more attributed here, especially if there were more undecided voters. Going back to Michigan, Biden may have won that primary on Tuesday night, but over 100,000 voters who participated in the Democratic primary selected "uncommitted."
Speaking more of Israel, Guy highlighted another poll earlier on Wednesday, which the Harvard CAPS-Harris poll mentioned above. This poll shows overwhelming support among all demographics for Israel, including from young people.
It's entirely possible these voters, if and when they do participate in the November election, will come home for Biden. It's possible that they won't, though. We've explored this question several times before, and as we get closer to the election, it's a question that doesn't look to be going away. Regardless, it's one more warning sign in what could be a very close election between Trump and Biden.
