'Dire:' New Polling of Seven Battleground States Shows Biden Trailing in This Many of Them

And here are the expanded field numbers:  

#Latest @EmersonPolling/@thehill Swing State Polls:

NEVADA
Trump 44% (+10)
Biden 34%
Kennedy 6%
Stein 1%
West 1%
.
WISCONSIN
Trump 41% (+4)
Biden 37%
Kennedy 7%
West 1%
Stein 1%
.
MICHIGAN
Trump 42% (+3)
Biden 39%
Kennedy 6%
West 1%
Stein 1%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 42% (+5)
Biden… https://t.co/cSE8x06ZVN

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) February 27, 2024

Critics, especially on the left, pointed to Emerson's track record, citing various polling misses in recent cycles and arguing that the outfit has a pro-Republican 'house bias.' For the sake of argument, let's accept that contention and dismiss all of those findings as inaccurate. Surely another batch of polling in the exact same states, published by an entirely separate organization, would eliminate the supposed bias and paint a clearer picture of reality, right? Enter Bloomberg's brand new data, in partnership with Morning Consult.  Well, well, well:

Another round of dire swing-state poll results for Biden. According to Bloomberg/Morning Consult, he's losing across the board and can only muster between 41-44% support. https://t.co/zYjtfjmXon pic.twitter.com/7GEVdI3p9b

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) February 29, 2024

Same states, different pollsters, strikingly similar numbers. Trump leads across the board -- by six points in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania (!), with tighter edges in Michigan and Wisconsin, and a healthier margin in North Carolina. As Tom Bevan notes, perhaps more concerning for Biden than the margins in the polls are his vote shares being mired in the low-to-mid 40's. Scroll through the RealClearPolitics averages in these states.  The 45th president is ahead of the 46th president in six of the seven averages right now, with Biden up by less than one percentage point in the Keystone state.  Add in Trump's two-to-three point lead in the national averages and it's pretty clear that all else being equal, if the election were held next week, Trump would be the odds-on favorite to win it.  

As I've written before, I'm very much open to the possibility that any number of factors could shift over the coming eight-plus months, and these dynamics change accordingly.  Conservatives who believe Trump has the election in the bag right now could end up sorely mistaken.  That said, red flags are flapping all over the place for the incumbent at the moment, and his party seems paralyzed to do anything about it.  Indeed, the only real opposition he's facing is from a coalition of terrorism apologists angry at him for being too pro-Israel against the monsters of Hamas.  Biden panders to these ghouls at his own moral and political peril.  And if Democrats are banking on one or more felony convictions to derail Trump this year, they might -- might -- need to recalibrate those expectations:

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With the Trump immunity case being accepted by SCOTUS & what’s happening in Georgia, Trump may well have pulled the inside straight he needed to beat these cases. NY is a joke. GA is dying/severely delayed. FL ain’t happening b/4 Nov. And now, neither is J6 DC case. Incredible.

— Megyn Kelly (@megynkelly) February 29, 2024

I'll leave you with Team Trump highlighting the outrage of Laken Riley's murder, allegedly at the hands of an illegal immigrant with previous arrests and citations:

Devastating political ad from Trump’s PAC attacking Joe Biden for Laken Riley’s death. Immigration is the number one concern of all voters per Gallup poll. pic.twitter.com/msPWO0cvgi

— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) February 27, 2024

On the other side of the aisle, they'd prefer to pretend these things aren't happening:

President Empathy’s empathy outpourings do seem rather selective at times https://t.co/6ZCu9nXEjU

— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) February 28, 2024