President Joe Biden has been in a lot of trouble ahead of the November election, and he still looks to be. When we get down to the areas of concern, it's not just his low approval ratings, failure to handle most issues, and faltering mental capabilities, though it certainly is. It's also because he's faring poorly in key states and with key demographics. In 2020, Biden won black voters handily, as Democratic presidents tend to do, with over 90 percent. It doesn't look like he'll get that same support for 2024.
Bad news came out last Friday for Biden in the form of a poll on black voters in Michigan from the Howard University Initiative on Public Opinion, with the poll collecting a total of 412 surveys. In reporting on the poll, local news outlet WTOP even went with the headline, "Former President Trump receives good news from new Howard U. poll."
The introduction for the poll's findings notes, "As a key swing state with the support of Black voters, Michigan helped win President Biden the election in 2020. According to a Roper Center for Public Opinion Research report, historically, on average, 91% of Black voters have cast their ballot for the Democratic candidate, with 9% going to the Republican candidate. In 2020, Biden won 94% of the Black vote. The findings in this report challenge the assumption of the overwhelming support of Black voters for Democratic candidate."
That last line is especially key, considering that just 49 percent shared they plan to vote for Biden. That Biden outperformed the average in 2020 makes it even more noteworthy and devastating that he looks to be severely underperforming. This time, it's Trump who looks to be outperforming. "Trump has gained a considerable number of potential voters at 26 percent," the poll's report notes.
Biden's support of just 49 percent is also less than the 59 percent of respondents who say they're Republican, while Trump's support is significantly higher than the 11 percent who say they're Republican.
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While the poll's report notes, "Most of the sample are planning to vote along party lines," Trump enjoys much more support from Republican respondents than Biden does from Democratic ones. Just under 70 percent of Democrats say they'll support Biden, while that number is closer to 75 percent when it comes to Republicans who say they'll vote for Trump. By double digits, Independents are also more likely to vote for Trump than Biden. The current president, however, does enjoy slightly more support on crossover appeal, as 15 percent of Republicans plan to vote for Biden, while 11 percent of Democrats plan to vote for Trump.
Biden has the support of black female voters, though it's black male voters who look to be more likely to support Trump. The WTOP report, pointing to a gender gap, also included comments from Terri Adams-Fuller, director of the Howard University Initiative on Public Opinion. "It's African American men that are more likely to support the former president than their female counterparts," she said.
Another issue for Biden among respondents is that 38 percent said they're concerned about the president's age. That wasn't the case for Trump, who, at 77 years old, isn't that much younger than the 81-year-old Biden. Polls consistently show that voters are less concerned about Trump's age than they are about Biden's.
Twenty-nine percent said they were concerned about Trump's "morals/values," while 28 percent said they were concerned about his "track record."
The poll's release comes just ahead of Michigan's primary on Tuesday night. Biden looks to have another problem in the key swing state, as Muslims and Arab-Americans are leading an effort to "Abandon Biden" and vote uncommitted in the primary. Among those urging such a protest includes Rep. Rashida Tlaib, a Democrat who represents the state's 12th Congressional District. Such an effort has earned an increase in headlines from local and national news in light of the upcoming primary, with a rally taking place on Sunday in Dearborn.
Tlaib appeared in a digital ad last October claiming that Biden "supported the genocide of the Palestinian people" and called on him to support a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war if he wanted support in 2024. The ad also featured agitators chanting the genocidal phrase "from the river to the sea" in her home state of Michigan. The Squad member not long after doubled down by sharing the ad to her own personal X account. She was ultimately censured in part for such a post, as well as spreading falsehoods about Israel.
That Tlaib is calling on voters to withhold support from Biden puts Democrats in disarray, especially as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a fellow Democrat, is supporting Biden. This display of Democrats in disarray has earned coverage not only from outlets like the New York Post but also The New York Times, which on Sunday put out a lengthy piece asking, "Gretchen Whitmer's Biggest Electoral Test: Can She Deliver Michigan for Biden?"
The Howard University survey revealed that only 2 percent of respondents were Muslim, though, with a plurality, 40 percent, claiming no religion but who still said they believed in God. That suggests Biden faces issues with multiple demographics in this battleground state. Biden also looks to be struggling with black voters overall, as we've covered before.
As we've covered many times before, Trump is leading Biden in multiple battleground states, Michigan included. RealClearPolling shows Trump with a consistent lead of +5.1 over Biden in that state. This includes an Emerson College Poll released on Monday, showing Trump with 46 percent support to Biden's 44 percent. Michigan has voted Democratic in five of the last six presidential elections. Donald Trump was the outlier when he won in 2016 by 47.5 percent to Hillary Clinton's 47.3 percent. "Michigan" has been trending over X on Monday ahead of the primary.
When it comes to Biden's past remarks about black voters, in May 2020, he said during an interview with "The Breakfast Club's" Charlamagne Tha God, "I tell you what, if you have a problem figuring out whether you're for me or Trump, then you ain't black." Those remarks were resurrected over the weekend when the Biden-Harris reelection campaign put out a statement from Black Media Director Jasmine Harris portraying Trump as "the proud poster boy for modern racism" and an "incompetent, anti-Black tyrant."
The statement also closed by claiming, "Come November, no matter how many disingenuous voter engagement events he attends, Black Americans will show Donald Trump we know exactly who he is."
The Biden-Harris campaign once again is telling Black people “you ain’t Black“ unless you vote for them. https://t.co/wpljKjGL7V
— NotYourJewishMom (@CaffMomREDACTED) February 25, 2024
You people are lying dirtbags and serial hoaxers.
— Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) February 24, 2024
Joe Biden said “you ain’t black” if you don’t vote for him.
Biden passed a crime bill that locked up minor drug offenders, while Trump pardoned rappers and insituted prison reforms.
Joe Biden eulogized a Klansmen, supported…
Black Americans thrived under Trump.
— Jack Lombardi II (@JackLombardi) February 24, 2024
Just stop.
