As we get closer to the November election, especially now that 2024 is finally here, it's been worthwhile to look back on at some of the polls, many of them a hypothetical rematch from 2020 between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. The primary season officially starts next Monday, with the Iowa Republican Caucus taking place. In the final months of 2023, several polls looked to battleground states, which is where the election could very likely be decided. Multiple polls showed that Trump was up in many of these states, some even showing that Biden's support was slipping.
One particular state worth keeping an eye out on is Michigan, which has voted Democratic in 5 of the last 6 presidential elections. Donald Trump was the outlier, when he won in 2016 by 47.5 percent to Hillary Clinton's 47.3 percent. He ended up losing it to Biden, though, in 2020.
Last month, in light of their own poll showing how Trump looked to be doing well in the battleground states of Michigan and Georgia, CNN published analysis pointing out that "Joe Biden has an electoral math problem to solve." In it, the first point that Zachary B. Wolf made was that "Georgia plus Michigan plus one more = a Trump win."
On Tuesday, a poll commissioned by The Detroit News and WDIV-TV and conducted by the Glengariff Group, showed Trump with a lead over Biden in Michigan, 47-39 percent. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who has seen a surge lately in polling for the New Hampshire Republican primary, performs even better. She beats Biden with 44 percent to his 34 percent.
None of the scenarios look good for Biden. He loses when third-party candidates are factored in as well, with Trump's lead actually increasing.
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The only matchup where the Democrat wins is one between Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, the state's popular sitting governor, and Trump. She beats him 49-45 percent. Whitmer was reelected in 2022 by over 10 points, she flipped the state legislatures from red to blue, and she's in the top half of most popular governors.
📊 MICHIGAN GE: Glengariff Group
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 9, 2024
(R) Trump 47% (+8)
(D) Biden 39%
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(R) Haley 44% (+10)
(D) Biden 34%
--
(D) Whitmer 49% (+4)
(R) Trump 45%
--
(R) Trump 45% (+5)
(D) Newsom 40%
--
(R) Trump 41% (+12)
(D) Biden 29%
(NL) Cheney 8%
(G) Stein 6%
--
(R) Trump 42% (+11)
(D) Biden 31%… pic.twitter.com/eWJct5rbo0
Nevertheless, Biden continues to insist that he's running for reelection, and so the poll and its write-up focuses on the Biden-Trump hypothetical rematch. "Biden struggling in Michigan as Trump grabs strong lead, poll shows" read the headline from The Detroit News, with the opening paragraph also pointing out that the incumbent president is "on shaky ground in Michigan."
It becomes even more clear how much of a problem Biden is facing. "The survey of 600 likely general election voters in the battleground state found only 17% said Biden, the Democratic incumbent, deserved another term leading the country. That number marked a low for a major public officeholder in modern Michigan political history, said Richard Czuba, founder of Lansing-based Glengariff Group, which conducted the poll," the write-up goes on to mention, with added emphasis. And to think, Biden actually won Michigan in 2020.
"If I were a Democrat in Michigan, I would be breaking the emergency fire alarms in the White House and demanding to know what the plan is for Michigan," Czuba is also quoted as saying farther down in the write-up. "Because these numbers are very bad for any incumbent of any party."
The poll makes mention of Democratic wins in the state as well, which likely serves to underscore how big of a deal this outlook for Trump is. "The poll's findings are warning signs for Michigan Democrats who've scored a series of political victories over the last six years and have taken control of state government. The numbers arrived as the Michigan Republican Party faces financial turmoil and after Michigan's Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, won her reelection campaign in November 2022 by more than 10 percentage points," the write-up mentions.
It's further telling that the poll results show a Trump lead even as the write-up mentions not only the issues that the state party is in fact facing, but makes it a point to bring up Trump's claims about the 2020 election and the indictments he is facing.
As mentioned, the poll surveyed 600 likely general election voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It was conducted January 2-6.
A curious point that the poll does not discuss is how Michigan has a high Muslim population. After Biden dared to show what support he has for Israel following the October 7 terrorist attack that Hamas perpetrated, Muslim voters, groups, and even White House staffers expressed outrage over how they claimed the president wasn't showing enough concern for Palestinians as well. And polls have shown that Muslim and Arab voters are turning on Biden.
Of course, there is a downside to all of this fearmongering and handwringing, which is that the Biden reelection campaign actually does something about it, and/or Republicans take such hopeful poll numbers for granted. Time will surely tell, especially as nominating contests get further underway.
