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Tipsheet

Will '#DropOutDean' Trend Have Any Effect on Biden's Primary Challenger?

AP Photo/Alex Brandon

Despite all the reasons for him to not be running, President Joe Biden continues to insist he's seeking reelection, with it looking increasingly likely that the 2024 presidential election will be a rematch of 2020 between Biden and former and potentially future President Donald Trump. Yet the supporters that Biden does have still have been vocal over X, with "#DropOutDean" trending on Tuesday, referring to Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN). After spending months calling for sonmeone to primary Biden, Phillips himself made a run of his own official in late October. 

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The polls have shown plenty of bad news for Biden, with voters overall and even his fellow Democrats saying they don't want him to run. Young people have especially turned against the president. When it comes to that 2024 rematch between Biden and Trump--which is still hypothetical for the time being--Trump is also leading. And yet that doesn't translate to a boost for Phillips.

RealClearPolling has Phillips with 3.3 percent support, behind Marianne Williamson's 7.8 percent, and Biden's 68.3 percent. 

Although there's caveats to Trump leading, especially since we're so many months away, Phillips has been issuing warnings that Trump could very well end up winning the general election. That inluded in his conversation with NewsNation's Dan Abrams, as RealClearPolitics highlighted, when he pointed out that "this is an unusual time," as he repeated that "Donald Trump is going to beat Joe Biden. I'm going to say it again., Donald Trump is going to beat Joe Biden" an offered "most people know that." Phillips also shared that he has "not seen one shred of evidence that Joe Biden is positioned to beat Donald Trump."

When Abrams asked why more people don't know of Phillips, he offered that "the country doesn't know me yet, which is going to take some time." He also spoke about "the system," though. "The bigger issue is I'm a threat to a system many people are trying to protect, and that is a problem. It is a duopoly. It is a political-industrial complex that is always focused on a coronation, not really focused on a competition, particularly when you have an incumbent president," Phillips continued.

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Biden certainly is protected by the incumbency, at least for the primary. But he's also going up against a former incumbent, and the American people are waking up to how much better they had it under Trump. 

A recent Harvard-Harris poll showed that 61 percent of voters say they were better off personally under Trump, which includes 59 percent of Independents/others and even 33 percent of Democrats. Sixty percent of voters also say they agree with the statement "I miss Donald Trump's policies on the economy, immigration and crime," with 39 percent saying they agree strongly. Voters are also asked if they're better or worse off during Biden's presidency, and 55 percent say they're worse. This includes 62 percent of Independents/others and 21 percent of Democrats.

Not only is Trump leading Biden overall, but he's doing so when it comes to key swing states, as multiple polls have shown. Earlier this month, a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll was released, showing Trump not only leading in swing states, but that he was improving in the polls. Morning Consult posted about the poll again earlier on Tuesday, which Phillips certainly took note of, enough to issue another warning with his quoted repost.

"The truth hurts, but Joe Biden is not a viable general election candidate in ‘24," Phillips offered. In what was likely a response to the "#DropOutDean" trend, he also noted that the "organized twitter mob can attack the facts all it wants," adding such a move "just highlights how out-of-touch the establishment is with political reality."

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Phillips also posted about Biden's approval ratings, once more bringing up Trump, who enjoyed a higher approval rating during his presidency, as his post noted "Democrats should be promoting a competitive primary."

Unless he himself withdraws, and there's still commentary about that, Biden is likely to be the Democratic nominee once more. Trump is likely to be the Republican nominee once more, too, although it's worth reminding voting hasn't even started yet. 

Although again, a lot can change, if these trends continue, Trump is likely to beat Biden, and Phillips will be left to say "I told you so." He'll be doing so as someone who is no longer a member of Congress, though, since Phillips announced late last month he would not be seeking reelection.

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