We're down to our last couple of weeks of 2023, and then it's officially a presidential election year. We've been noting that as bad as the polls seem for President Joe Biden when it comes to the hypothetical rematch from 2020 between him and former President Donald Trump, the situation could still change. Republicans, including candidates and the GOP itself, got far too cocky for the 2022 midterms, and then Democrats went and performed better than expected. Not only can the situation change--as it often does, especially over 10 months away--but the polls can be wrong regardless.
When it comes to the trends that we are seeing, though, they're getting worse for Biden. This is especially when it comes to the president's mental fitness. The polls have also gone in a direction Biden most certainly doesn't want them going in. Trump, who has been consistently leading Biden for some time, now has a lead of +3.5, according to RealClearPolitics (RCP). We're starting to get to the outside the margin of error territory.
Earlier, Matt covered the results of the most recent Harvard-Harris poll, aptly noting it's "astounding" how anti-Israel young people are. Another takeaway though is how bad it looks for Biden. Trump is leading, and that's whether voters are given the option of saying they're unsure. When given that option, 47 percent of voters choose Trump, compared to 42 percent who choose Biden. Among those who are leaning towards one or the other when told they have to choose, Trump has 52 percent support to Biden's 48 percent. That lead remains when third-party candidates are included.
Other trends for Biden are also overall poor, as he went from a 45 percent approval rating last month, to a 43 percent approval rating this month. Biden does have enjoy a majority approval on one issue, out of 10 asked, in that 53 percent approve of his "Reacting to coranvirus." He only has a 38 percent approval rating on immigration, though, a 39 percent approval rating on inflation, and a 42 percent approval rating on "Dealing with violence and crime in the country."
That's especially bad news given that "price increases/inflation" and immigration are considered the top issues, with 33 percent and 28 percent saying so, respectively. And 40 percent of voters say inflation is when asked which of a set of issues is the "most important to you personally?"
It gets still worse from there.
When voters were asked if Biden is "mentally fit to serve as President of the United States or do you have doubts about his fitness for office," 62 percent say they have doubts. That includes 63 percent of Independents/others. Not only do just 38 percent think he is mentally fit, that number is down from when it was 42 percent in December.
Similarly, 64 percent of voters think Biden is "showing he is too old to be President," which includes 71 percent of Independents/others. That number is slightly down from when it was 66 percent in November, but is still not great.
When asked if Biden is improving, getting worse, or staying the same, a plurality--at 48 percent--say he's getting worse. Just 24 percent say he's improving, while 27 percent say he's staying the same. The reason it's only a plurality of voters who say Biden is getting worse may be because a plurality of Democrats--at 45 percent--think he's improving.
There could be bad news for Trump, too, though, as 56 percent believe Trump "has committed crimes for which he should be convicted." That includes 59 percent of Independents/others, and 27 percent of Trump's fellow Republicans.
But, other implications for Trump are split, and that's more bad news for Biden and the Democrats who have been trying to portray him and his party as extreme as well as danger and a threat to democracy. As we covered last week, another poll, from Cygnal, shows it's actually Democrats who are considered to be more "extreme," though.
While a majority of voters, at 51 percent, do think that "Trump iis a threat to democracy if he is elected president," 49 percent say he is not. Independents/others are split right down the middle. Fifty-six percent do think he "will act like a dictator if re-elected," though.
This shows up again when it comes to voters' expectations, as they recognize the angle Democrats are going for when they claim Trump will be a "dictator." When asked if they agree or disagree with the statement that "Democrats are trying to unfairly scare the voters over Donald Trump by labeling him as a dictator," 59 percent said they agree, including 36 percent who said they did so strongly.
The poll also provides good news for the Republican Party, Trump especially. It seems that voters certainly miss him and his presidency. Sixty-one percent of voters say they were better off personally under Trump, which includes 59 percent of Independents/others and the not insignificant 33 percent of Democrats. Sixty percent of voters also say they agree with the statement "I miss Donald Trump's policies on the economy, immigration and crime," with 39 percent saying they agree strongly.
Voters are also asked if they're better or worse off during Biden's presidency, and 55 percent say they're worse. This includes 62 percent of Independents/others and 21 percent of Democrats.
The GOP enjoys a higher approval rating than the Democratic Party does, with the poll noting this is "a slight improvement from November." While 51 percent disapprove, that's lower than the 53 percent disapproval rating that the Democratic Party has. Forty-nine percent approve of the GOP, while 47 percent approve of the Democratic Party.
And, while 57 percent of voters agree that "The Republicans have moved too far to the right for me," 62 percent agree that "The Democrats have moved too far to the left for me." The amount who say they agree strongly is significantly higher for Democrats--at 41 percent--than it is for Republicans--at 32 percent. That 41 percent is the highest when it comes to statements where voters say they agree strongly on something.
There is still bad news for Republicans, though, and a sign they need to get their act together or else risk losing their majority in the House and face a failure to take it in the Senate. Sixty-three percent of voters say that "Republicans are hopelessly divided and cannot effectively govern if elected." Thirty-two percent say they agree strongly, and I'm somewhat shocked that amount isn't higher, actually.
The poll was conducted December 13-14 with 2,304 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
RCP includes another recent poll, from Fox News, where Trump is also leading Biden by +4, in this case 50-46 percent. The "best" Biden has done in recent polls is the one where he's up +1 in the NPR/PBS/Marist poll, 49-48 percent. He's also tied with Trump according to last week's poll from TheEconomist/YouGov, with each enjoying 43 percent support. It's worth noting that the poll conducted before that showed Biden slightly ahead.
It's possible that certain factors could improve, such as the direction of the country, and thus Biden's poll numbers with it, perhaps even in such a way that voters don't see the president's age as being as much of an issue. But Biden is objectively not getting any younger. In that case, the ball could be in Trump's--or whoever the nominee is--court to not screw up such a good thing.
