We continue to mention that the 2024 landscape is looking good for former and potentially future President Donald Trump, because it is, while also insisting that Trump and everyone else in the Republican Party can't let any of these polls go to their heads, because they really can't. Still, the situation continues to look good. Swing states and the Electoral College certainly make things interesting, and they're really the states to watch in 2024, and really any election.
Last month, The New York Times/Siena College put out a poll showing that Trump was leading President Joe Biden in five swing states: Nevada (+11), Georgia (+6), Arizona (+5), Michigan (+5), and Pennsylvania (+4). Biden's lead in Wisconsin was only by two points, the smallest lead across the six states. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.4 percentage points in Arizona, Michigan and Nevada, plus or minus 4.5 points in Georgia, plus or minus 4.6 points in Pennsylvania and plus or minus 4.8 points in Wisconsin.
NYT/Siena Poll: Trump Is Ahead in Five of Six Swing States.
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 5, 2023
Nevada
Trump 52%
Biden 41%
~~
Georgia
Trump 49%
Biden 43%
~~
Arizona
Trump 49%
Biden 44%
~~
Michigan
Trump 48%
Biden 43%
~~
Pennsylvania
Trump 48%
Biden 44%
~~
Wisconsin
Biden 47%
Trump 45%https://t.co/95el9rOVGV pic.twitter.com/OlCI9Dc0mr
There's since been more polls out on swing states, including CNN's poll from Monday and the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll from Thursday. Not only does that latter poll look to swing states for a hypothetical 2024 rematch of 2020, but the headline reads that "Biden Forgave Billions in Student Debt. Poll Shows It’s Not Enough For Gen Z," providing another takeaway and begging the question as to if there is anything that this president or his reelection campaign can do to win over young people.
The poll's write-up also ties in swing states, young people, and student loan debt all together in a way that perfectly captures the narrative:
Biden still leads Trump with Generation Z voters overall, 44% to 38%, but the battleground-state poll shows Biden is in a bind campaigning on his student loan moves. While a plurality of younger voters say he has done too little, a plurality of Generation X and baby boomer voters say he has already done too much.
Meanwhile, much of the student-loan forgiveness has gone to middle-aged borrowers with a longer payment history, making it harder to convince young voters that the policy has helped them.
As we've explored before, Trump may even be making some gains with young people, and regardless as to how much that plays out next November, poll after poll shows that young people are souring on the current president. That includes these ones.
The CNN poll looks to Georgia and Michigan, where Trump is leading by 49-44 percent and by 50-40 percent, respectively. Here's what the poll's write-up has to say:
Trump’s margin over Biden in the hypothetical matchup is significantly boosted by support from voters who say they did not cast a ballot in 2020, with these voters breaking in Trump’s favor by 26 points in Georgia and 40 points in Michigan. Those who report having voted in 2020 say they broke for Biden over Trump in that election, but as of now, they tilt in Trump’s favor for 2024 in both states, with Biden holding on to fewer of his 2020 backers than does Trump.
Those numbers hint at possible challenges for both candidates in the long campaign ahead. Trump’s advantage rests on the assumption that he can both maintain support among a fickle, politically disengaged group and convince them to actually vote, while Biden will need to win back the support of disaffected former backers who show little excitement about his reelection bid.
Biden’s struggles in both states are apparent in voters’ impressions of his performance as president, and their views on how his policy positions, ability to understand their problems, stamina and sharpness fail to live up to their image of an ideal president.
What those findings speak to is that as disenchanted as people might have been by Trump or Biden for one way or another in 2020, they've recognized that the country is going so badly that they have to make a decision now, and in these key states, they're choosing Trump.
And here's another point that speaks to a theme seen in previous polls which could spell doom for Trump, especially if he lets these polls go to his head, or what looks like it could be a total victory for him if enough Democrats are so disenchanted that they never come home:
Overall, just 35% in Michigan and 39% in Georgia approve of Biden’s job performance, the surveys find, and majorities in both states say his policies have worsened economic conditions in the country (54% in Georgia, 56% in Michigan).
Those grim numbers partially reflect softness among his base: About one-quarter of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters in each state disapprove of Biden, and a little more than 4 in 10 say his policies have not helped the country’s economy. Biden’s campaign is working to sell voters on the success of his economic agenda, with a recently launched ad in Michigan focused on small businesses and the middle class.
Under the subheader of "More trouble spots for Biden with young voters," there's a pretty telling point, which speaks to the question we've asked about Trump doing well with young voters:
Younger voters in both states are particularly unlikely to see Biden as aligning with their vision of a president, with only 9% of voters younger than 45 saying he is exactly what they’d like to see in a president in terms of policy positions, and only 11% in Georgia and 9% in Michigan saying he is exactly what they want in terms of his ability to understand the problems of people like them. Younger voters in both states break in Trump’s favor in a hypothetical matchup (50% to 40% among voters younger than 45 in Georgia, 49% to 38% in Michigan). That’s at least in part due to defections among Democratic-aligned younger voters. In both states, Biden carries more than 90% of the vote among Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters who are age 45 or older. But he holds just 78% support among younger Democratic-aligned voters in Michigan and 80% among that group in Georgia.
The CNN poll was conducted in Georgia from November 30-December 7 with 1,068 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percent. It was conducted in Michigan from November 29-December 6 with 1,197 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percent.
The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll shows that Trump leads Biden in seven swing states, including Arizona (46-42 percent), Georgia (49-43 percent), Michigan (46-42 percent), Nevada (47-44 percent), North Carolina (49-44 percent), and Wisconsin (45-41 percent).
Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in all seven surveyed 2024 swing states, with Biden losing the 1-point lead over Trump he had in Michigan last month, according to our latest survey with @business. https://t.co/rnwTOvnUXp pic.twitter.com/zCSKK1S0eX
— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) December 14, 2023
With the general caveat that much could change between now and next November, it's worth pointing to what changes in support there have been thus far from October-December show it's away from Biden and for Trump. This includes going from a tie in Michigan and even a previous lead in Nevada to now trailing in those states.
Who is Biden losing ground with? You likely guessed it: young people, but also black voters, another trend we've been seeing.
Across 7 swing states, Biden has lost ground in recent months among middle-aged voters, who exit polling shows made up large shares of the electorate in 2020, as well as among two key Democratic constituencies: young and Black voters. https://t.co/rnwTOvnUXp pic.twitter.com/P2Q7nZhZXe
— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) December 14, 2023
The poll was conducted November 27-December 6 with 796 registered voters in Arizona, 801 in Georgia, 703 in Michigan, 451 in Nevada, 704 in North Carolina, 799 in Pennsylvania and 681 in Wisconsin. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point across the seven states; 3 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania; 4 percentage points in Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, and 5 percentage points in Nevada.
Other polls have shown that voters continue to place more faith in Trump when it comes to the economy. These polls show how that applies to swing voters as well. Not only do "Swing-state voters keep faith in Trump to handle the economy," as one subheader indicated, but the Bloomberg write-up also noted that "[i]In another key demographic group, Black voters, trust in Biden on this issue has dipped from October — the month of the first Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll."
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) December 14, 2023
On Wednesday, CNN also published an analysis speaking to how "Joe Biden has an electoral math problem to solve," which referenced the outlet's own poll, though it could apply to others. The second takeaway was to remind that "A lot can change in a year," which can't be said enough. But the first was to point out that "Georgia plus Michigan plus one more = a Trump win." So, if these numbers hold for any of these states, Trump might even have some wiggle room here.
The Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll spoke to gains and losses across months, but it would be a considerable change across years if Trump won many or even any of these states, considering he lost Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2020.
Although it's not discussed enough in such poll write-ups, it's not surprising that Biden is faring so poorly in Michigan, given that it's not only a key swing state but one with high Muslim-American and Arab-American populations who have turned on Biden for being supposedly too supportive of Israel.
As of Thursday morning, Trump currently enjoys an overall lead over Biden of +2.3, according to RealClearPolitics.
