Tomorrow night, Texas will undergo their primary elections ahead of what might be the most contentious midterm cycle in over a decade. All eyes are on the heated senate race between Senator John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt, as well as the Democrat challenge between James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett, but what are the other races that have slipped through the cracks? I am going to give you a brief overview of the races that you should pay attention to as the results come in this time tomorrow.
In perhaps the most important race this cycle, Texas Republicans will choose their nominee in an open primary for the first time in over 10 years. Four candidates are in the race: Rep. Chip Roy, State Senators Mayes Middleton and Joan Huffman, and Aaron Reitz. Both Roy and Reitz have served in top tiers of Paxton’s legal office, but Reitz was notably President Donald Trump’s nominee for the head of the Office of Legal Policy, one of the most important positions in the Department of Justice. Reitz has earned Paxton's endorsement to be his successor. Middleton has served as an extremely conservative legislator, but lacks the experience of Reitz or Roy. Huffman has had experience as both a prosecutor and a judge, but has largely been written off as the race has progressed. Polling hasn’t been kind to Reitz either, who has only fared well in those conducted by his own campaign. It would not be too surprising if he outperforms polls significantly. The race is likely heading towards a runoff, with Roy banking on his name ID to carry him through the primary, and Middleton having outspent his competition by millions. We should expect to see them face off once again, but don’t count Reitz out of an upset victory.
The race in TX-23 has garnered significant national attention after the news of the illicit affair between incumbent Tony Gonzales and a married female staffer reemerged just as early voting kicked off. Gonzales is endorsed by Trump, but touts one of the most liberal voting records for a Republican in Texas. He’s facing a significant challenge against the firearms YouTuber Brandon Herrera, who forced Gonzales into a runoff election when they first campaigned against one another in 2024. Gonzales narrowly escaped defeat, winning the runoff by less than 400 votes.
In TX-2, State Representative Steve Toth is attempting to take down Rep. Dan Crenshaw. Toth nearly forced Kevin Brady into a runoff election 10 years ago, and now is trying his hand at Crenshaw. He’s managed to gain a litany of impressive endorsements, with everyone from Senator Ted Cruz to Turning Point Action lending him support. Crenshaw is facing an Everest-scale uphill battle and will likely meet his exit from Congress.
Finally, in TX-21, 15 challengers have emerged in the contest to replace Chip Roy’s open seat. I’ll spare you the suffering of having to read about each one of them, because there are really only three of any major interest: Mark Teixeira (yes, that Mark Teixeira), Mike Wheeler, and Trey Trainor. Teixeira has earned himself the coveted Trump endorsement, and obviously has his world class Major League Baseball name ID to boot. Wheeler has served as a senior advisor to the Trump administration’s SBA. Trainor has served both former Texas Gov. Rick Perry as well as in the Trump administration. Due to the insane volume of candidates, expect this to head to a runoff. Teixeira is clearly the frontrunner to win once the crowd field narrows.
Those are all of the races where we may see the most fireworks. Tune in tomorrow night to see where things end up.
