A 'Gold Standard' Poll Just Dropped in One of the Most Important 2024 Battleground States

Certain states have credible, 'gold standard' polls that are widely seen as uniquely reliable, by both local and national political observers. The Selzer poll in Iowa is one example. In Wisconsin, it's the Marquette University Law School survey. We are nine months and a political lifetime away from the fall election, but because the leading candidates for president on each side of the aisle are so universally known by the electorate, reviewing 'way too early' polling on that match-up seems less frivolous than usual. Yes, even with the caveat fully in place that some key factors could shift dramatically before voting begins. Here's what the MU Law poll found in its brand new snapshot of the Badger State, which is one of maybe six states that will likely determine the winner in November. It is also perhaps the most closely-divided state in the whole country.

And here we have -- surprise -- an extremely close race:

New Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin registered voters finds Democratic President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump each supported for president by 49% of registered voters. Among those considered “likely voters,” 50% support Trump, 49% support Biden. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) February 7, 2024

Among likely voters, it is Trump 41%, Biden 39%, Kennedy 13%, Stein 4%, and West 2%. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) February 7, 2024

It's an exact tie among registered voters, with Trump squeaking ahead by a statistically-insignificant single point among likely voters. With more candidates named, Trump's edge expands all the way to...two points. What's not close at all is a hypothetical (and at this point far-fetched) match-up between Biden and Nikki Haley. These are blowout numbers in such a polarized place:

In a match between Biden and Republican candidate Nikki Haley, Haley is supported by 57% and Biden by 41% among registered voters. Among likely voters, it is Haley 57% and Biden 42%. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) February 7, 2024

She's up big league, by double digits, among registered and likely Wisconsin voters. A lot of voters in crucial states and districts want to get rid of Joe Biden, and replace him with someone other than Donald Trump. At this stage, it looks like the two major parties will not avail them with that preferred path forward. These two cross-tabs explain a lot about how the Trump-Biden race is so very close in Badgerland:

Trump’s actions following the 2020 election: 53% believe he did something illegal, 22% say he did something wrong but not illegal, 22% say he did nothing wrong. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) February 7, 2024

Does the phrase “too old to be president” fit Biden? 61% say it fits very well, 22% say it fits somewhat well. Does “too old to be president” fit Trump? 29% say it fits very well, 27% say somewhat well. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) February 7, 2024

Three-quarters of Wisconsin voters think Trump did something illegal or wrong in the aftermath of his 2020 election loss, with an outright majority going with illegal. Game over for Trump? Well, no. He's actually leading by a point, perhaps because 83 percent of respondents call Biden too old to be president, with far fewer saying the same of Trump. And on the ethics front, nearly 60 percent of these voters say Biden did something illegal or wrong in connection to his son's activities (and the family enrichment scheme). I'll leave you with another big, consequential fight happening in Wisconsin, where newly-empowered Democrats want to radically redraw district maps ahead of this year's election: