We've been publishing a lot of polling content lately, mostly because the Republican primary seems to be effectively over, and voters are looking ahead to the general election. Polls are premature but increasingly relevant. I continue to wonder how the numbers may shift over the next nine months, as the formidable Democratic money machine pumps a billion-dollar-plus barrage against Donald Trump, with the 'news' media firing with both barrels -- all day, every day. There's also the matter of whether Trump will be convicted of one or more felonies before the voting begins. Another X factor is how improving economic conditions and consumer sentiment could redound to the incumbent's benefit, if those slow but discernible trajectories continue.
In other words, conditions could change considerably between now and the fall, to the point that February polling looks worthless in retrospect. But anti-Trump-Republican-turned-Democrat Bill Kristol is worried:
Today’s poll average has Trump ~ +2%.
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) February 4, 2024
On Feb 4, 2020, polls had Biden ~ +5.5%. Biden won the popular vote by +4.5%.
On Feb 4, 2016, polls had Clinton ~ +3.5%. Clinton won the popular vote by +2%.
In the Trump era the election result hasn’t been far from the polls 9 months out.
That's a small sample set, to be sure, but every voter in America knows how they feel about Donald Trump and Joe Biden at this stage. They are extremely known, and generally disliked, commodities. To use a political cliche, so much about both men has been 'baked into the cake' for quite some time. So perhaps it's possible that polling at this stage of the race is more predictive and useful than one might think. Notice, too, that in the above examples, the polling under-estimated Trump's vote share. Right now, in the Real Clear Politics average, Trump leads Biden in an increasingly-less-than-hypothetical rematch by just over two points. With other third party candidates in the mix, Trump's lead is nearly five points. Biden's head-to-head standing is also being boosted by an outlier Quinnipiac survey showing the Democrat leading by six points. Trump is ahead in nine of the 12 most recent polls, with one tie, and one other survey showing Biden up by a single point. The two most recent national data sets are from CNN (Trump +4) and now NBC News:
🇺🇲 NATIONAL POLL: @NBCNews
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 4, 2024
(R) Trump: 47% (+5)
(D) Biden: 42%
—
Generic Ballot
Republicans 49% (+4)
Democrats 45%
—
• @POStrategies (R) | Hart Research (D)
• January 26-30 | 1,000 RV | ±3.1%https://t.co/QuM9421f7A pic.twitter.com/TFzi5Zvalb
Despite a growing economy and little opposition for his party’s nomination, President Joe Biden confronts a dissatisfied electorate and a challenging political climate nine months before he faces re-election, according to a new national NBC News poll. Biden trails GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump on major policy and personal comparisons, including by more than 20 points on which candidate would better handle the economy. And Biden’s deficit versus Trump on handling immigration and the border is greater than 30 points...Biden’s approval rating has declined to the lowest level of his presidency in NBC News polling — to 37%...All together, these numbers explain why the poll shows Trump leading Biden by 5 points among registered voters in a hypothetical 2024 general-election matchup, 47% to 42%. While the result is within the poll’s margin of error, the last year of polling shows a clear shift...Perhaps the best news in the poll for Biden is that he pulls ahead of Trump when voters are asked about their ballot choice if the former president is convicted of a felony. Yet the margin then is just 2 points in Biden’s favor, also within the margin of error.
Trump is up 22 points on the economy, and 35 points on immigration. He also holds double-digit leads on the issues of crime and improving America's standing in the world. The felony conviction scenario swings the race by seven points, away from Trump, but he'd still be within the margin of error -- at least according to this data set. That's much less dire than the numbers we discussed in a recent post. Depending on how the electoral college map shakes out, a two-point 'popular vote' loss could very realistically put Trump back into the White House. Republicans are outpacing Democrats on the generic Congressional ballot by four points in the poll. A few other note from NBC's write-up:
The two men are essentially tied among Latinos (Trump 42%, Biden 41%) and voters ages 18-34 (at 42% each). Among the youngest slice of voters measured, those ages 18-29, Biden has a narrow advantage (Biden 46%, Trump 38%)...In a hypothetical matchup featuring third parties, Trump’s advantage over Biden grows to 6 points, 41% to 35% — with an unnamed Libertarian Party candidate getting 5% support, an unnamed Green Party candidate getting another 5% and an unnamed No Labels candidate getting 4%...And in a hypothetical matchup featuring Biden and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, the NBC News poll shows Haley leading Biden by 9 points, 45% to 36%.
The Hispanic vote is up for grabs. I'm not at all convinced that younger voters will be even close to split evenly between Trump and Biden when all is said and done, but if enough of them fail to "come home" for Democrats, and instead stay home, that could be fatal for Biden's re-election prospects. We also continue to see Trump's advantage growing slightly when alternative party candidates are included in polling questions. Nikki Haley will certainly use this survey result to make her electability case, given her more comfortable lead over Biden in yet another poll. We'll see if voters in her home state are swayed by this argument in a few weeks. But the most damaging and worrisome findings for Democrats in this NBC poll deal not with approval ratings, head-to-heads, or even policy issues. They're about how the president is perceived by the electorate:
Recommended
Only 23 percent of people in NBC poll say Biden has the necessary physical/mental strength to be president.
— John Podhoretz (@jpodhoretz) February 4, 2024
TWENTY THREE PERCENT.
NBC NEWS POLL: Major policy and personal comparisons (Biden vs Trump)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 4, 2024
Being competent and effective
• June 2020: Biden +9
• Jan. 2024: Trump +16
—
Having the necessary mental and physical health to be President
• Oct. 2020: Biden +1
• Jan. 2024: Trump +23
—
Dealing with… https://t.co/ZHgulq5t7g pic.twitter.com/d7nmHPQ2Se
Are perceptions of Joe Biden likely to improve on this front? Or is it more easily conceivable that things deteriorate further for him, especially if he has a major 'senior moment' in a big spot, or suffers another physical fall? Republicans are taking a serious risk by nominating Donald Trump. Democrats are taking perhaps an equally major risk by sticking with this man, at least for now. I'll leave you with the biggest reason why sunnier economic conditions across several metrics may not be enough to save Biden. Inflation led to sticky higher prices, resulting in voter frustration that has been anything but..."transitory:"
Poll: 20-point deficit on handling economy highlights Biden’s struggles against Trump https://t.co/eiGyPb3pli pic.twitter.com/0ooE1MuCoK
— Paul Bedard (@SecretsBedard) February 4, 2024
