Allegation 1: We have a shoddy polygraph, more contradictions on basic facts of her decades-old recollection, and zero contemporaneous corroboration from every witness the accuser places at the party -- including her lifelong friend, a female Democrat. Two different men have now contacted the judiciary committee (apparently separately) in order to claim that they perpetrated the attempted assault attributed to Kavanaugh:
Whoa. Senate Judiciary Committee Republicans say they have spoken to two men who think they, not Kavanaugh, had the 1982 encounter that formed the basis for her sexual abuse claim. (These tables are from a timeline the committee majority published 15 minutes ago.) pic.twitter.com/tjz3CSQUUL— David Martosko (@dmartosko) September 27, 2018
False confessions do happen, and genuine self-incrimination is an unusual act, so each man's credibility should be viewed -- shall we say -- very skeptically. Relatedly, developing false or altered memories, especially ones formed or evolved over many years, is an established psychological phenomenon.
Allegation 2: We have zero contemporaneous firsthand corroboration, and an accuser who called former classmates in recent weeks in an effort to crowd-source her own memory, confiding to some that she isn't sure it was Kavanaugh. Her own college best friend contradicts her, as do the people she said were in the room.
Allegation 3: We are still awaiting any shred of corroboration whatsoever, from any of the many claimed victims or witnesses to alleged serial gang rapes going on at numerous parties, supposedly over the span of years. If true, lurid accusations like this would very likely produce lots of supporting claims and memories from the time. One might also think someone might have said something over the past three-plus decades; that's especially true recently, with so many investigative reporters and oppo researchers sniffing around Kavanaugh's past. This accusation, if true, also means that all six FBI background checks somehow missed any whiff of this. Furthermore, in spite of the shocking content of this one, the accuser avoids explicitly identifying Kavanaugh as one of the alleged rapists. Allahpundit summarizes more of the oddities:
Why was a college student, an adult under the law, attending parties with high-schoolers for years? And not just any parties but parties at which gang rapes happened repeatedly? And how the hell did this not come up once in interviews with Kavanaugh’s youthful acquaintances? Those interviews have been going on for many years, bear in mind. He’s passed six background checks, has had numerous news stories written about him since he was a young gun on Ken Starr’s team and later an appellate judge, and has been the subject of electron-microscope scrutiny since he was nominated in July. There must have been dozen of witnesses to, not to mention participants in, the activity Swetnick’s affidavit describes. Not one person spoke up until now?...How come America’s most media-friendly lawyer didn’t hand this off to one of his media pals for investigation before this morning’s bombshell announcement?...The media itself is quietly, or maybe not so quietly, signaling a little early skepticism about Avenatti’s bombshell. And why shouldn’t they? Collectively they must have spent hundreds of hours interviewing Kavanaugh friends and acquaintances over the last two months.
Not only that, there are some interesting coincidences that have cropped up, as well as a string of previous incidents and disputes, including potentially devastating counter-allegations from the accuser's ex (a registered Democrat), which speaks to her credibility:
“Right after I broke up with her, she was threatening my family, threatening my wife and threatening to do harm to my baby at that time.... I know a lot about her.”— John McCormack (@McCormackJohn) September 27, 2018
“She’s not credible at all,” he said. “Not at all.”
And this is quite something. Not only is this accuser not actually accusing Kavanaugh of gang rape, her lawyer is now seemingly revising the claim to say she didn't really realize gang rapes were occurring at the time, or something:
Cuomo asks good questions here. Avenatti accuses him of victim blaming, while contradicting/backtracking from his client’s sworn statement by claiming she didn’t actually realize there were gang rapes going on at these parties. https://t.co/QhS0vIHdFs— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) September 27, 2018
Dozens of Kavanaugh's actual high school friends say nothing like this ever happened at their parties, adding that they don't even know the accuser. The New York Times has reported it could not independently verify anything about these claims. Proceed with extreme caution.
Allegation 4: Sent to a Republican Senator, 100 percent anonymous and untraceable. No names, no contact information, no address, no identification of alleged witnesses:
GOP CO Sen Gardner statement on new allegations against Kavanaugh: On September 24th our Denver office received an anonymous letter in the mail about an alleged incident with Brett Kavanaugh in 1998. The letter contained no names, no address, and no contact info.— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) September 26, 2018
It's shockingly irresponsible that NBC ran with it as credulously as it did, especially given the context.
Allegation 5: Sent to a Democratic Senator. Its author is a conspiracy nut who has recanted the claim:
JUST IN: Man Apologizes For Claiming Kavanaugh Sexually Assaulted His Friend, Says He 'Made A Mistake' https://t.co/FNUhRpnky2— The Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) September 27, 2018
Some of this is getting so bad that certain Democrats are starting peddle conspiracies about Republicans deliberately aiding or elevating bogus claims (with assists from the likes of NBC News!) to detract from others:
This is clearly what they’re doing. The person who made the Rhode Island allegation has also called for the military to overthrow Trump on Twitter, which the Senate Republicans chose to describe in great detail during their call with Kavanaugh, knowing it would become public. https://t.co/PVtAqGoDiO— Jon Favreau (@jonfavs) September 27, 2018
But the original two allegations already lack the evidence-based credibility to rise to the level of derailing Kavanaugh, based on everything we currently know. Much can still change, but this is where the level-headed David French has landed thus far, in advance of today's consequential hearings:
And keep in mind, especially in the Ford allegation, these are witnesses she identified, including a friend of hers. /2— David French (@DavidAFrench) September 27, 2018
The gang rape allegation never would have made it into print in any respectable newspaper. She made dramatic claims that would have been witnessed by dozens of people. Yet none have been found or quoted. Many peers say these kinds of things did not happen. /4— David French (@DavidAFrench) September 27, 2018
We do not know where the evidence will ultimately lead, nor can we confidently declare what did or did not happen decades ago. But based on the information relayed above, Judiciary Democrats' unanimous and reactionary demand that Kavanaugh withdraw from this process was premature, at best. Many would call it the party's latest and most unconscionable act of partisan cynicism in its endless parade of confirmation war escalations. And we know precisely what's motivating some of them, because they've told us.