There is simply no spin: President Donald Trump is dominating the Republican Primary race. Not just with the energy on the ground, where he remains the only candidate with the ability to draw in thousands of supporters at events. But also in the hardcore data and polling. It is also important to note that President Trump looms large over every aspect of Republican politics, including debates he doesn’t attend and the overall policy platform. The mainstream media and Never Trump wing of the party have attempted to cast doubt on President Trump’s dominance in the Republican Party since 2021. However, they have been proven wrong at every turn.
President Trump remains the most sought after endorsement for Republicans running for federal or state office. He remains the most prolific online fundraising machine in Republican politics. After the 2022 midterms, many Republican politicians wrongfully assessed the environment among the base, thinking there would be an opportunity for an alternative candidate or lane to defeat Donald Trump. The past few months have proved just the opposite. Trump dominated the primary field in 2016 against very talented politicians, including current Senators and Governors. This was prior to him having a conservative governing track record as President, which he now has, including 3 Supreme Court Justices, massive tax cuts, a red hot economic streak, tough on China policies, and strong border security. Eight years later, President Trump is in an even stronger position now.
The past few months have been consistent in the Republican Primary polling, showing President Trump expanding his lead by 30, 40, and sometimes even 50 points over his next closest challenger. For context, at times, he is polling in a stronger position than Joe Biden is in the Democratic Primary field over Robert Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson, and doing it with a much stronger and crowded field. The Real Clear Politics average has President Trump up over 40 points on Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has been unable to mount a serious challenge to Trump. DeSantis poll numbers have slipped over the last few months, his campaign has fired staff, and they are bleeding campaign donors. No other Republican candidate has been able to consistently crack 10 percent.
Trump is not just crushing the competition in national polls, if you dig into the early state polls he is maintaining big leads. In a recent Fox Business poll, he is leading his next closest challenger in Iowa by 30 points. The same Fox Business poll revealed Trump has a 34 point commanding lead in South Carolina as well. Trump is also winning by over 30 points in the early state of New Hampshire. There is a talking point coming from the Never Trump camp, which claims that if all the candidates in the race just dropped out, except for DeSantis, then Trump would not win the primary. However, this is folly. The New York Times recently had a poll, which not only showed President Trump racking up 54 percent of the vote in a crowded field. but, it polled Trump head-to-head against Ron DeSantis. The poll found that Trump defeated DeSantis by over 30 points, 62-31 percent in a head-to-head race. Recent Wall Street Journal and CNN polling confirm the same thing: Donald Trump is crushing all of his challengers by wide margins.
Heading into the general election, President Trump is also matching up the strongest against Joe Biden, more so than any other Republican candidate. Republican Primary voters believe that Donald Trump is the best candidate to defeat Joe Biden in the general election by a 30 point margin in The New York Times and Fox Business polling. They have good reason to believe this. Even after the recent indictment in Georgia, Donald Trump defeated Joe Biden in multiple polls. In the New York Post/Leger he defeated Joe Biden 44-41. Emerson has Trump beating Biden 46-44. Schoen-Cooperman Research, a leading Democratic polling firm has Trump inching out Biden 45-44.
There are major warning signs for Joe Biden heading into 2024 against President Trump. In 2012, President Obama won non-white voters by over 60 points. In 2020, Joe Biden won non-white voters by over 40 points. Right now, going into 2024, Joe Biden is only leading President Trump with non-white voters by 16 points.
Not only is Donald Trump matching up strongly against Joe Biden in the national polling, if you dig into the important rust belt states, which will essentially decide the 2024 election, you will see Trump’s commanding lead over Joe Biden. Fox and Friends First recently covered a rust belt poll, which included the key states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Trump has a whopping 7 point lead over Joe Biden. In the recent WSJ polling by an 11-point margin, more voters see Trump rather than Biden as having a record of accomplishments as president—some 40% said Biden has such a record, while 51% said so of Trump. By an eight-point margin, more voters said Trump has a vision for the future. And by 10 points, more described Trump as mentally up to the presidency. Some 46% said that is true of Trump, compared with 36% who said so of Biden. He is leading Biden 40-39 with registered voters.
President Trump remains the most powerful figure in Republican politics. He is running away with the Republican nomination, consistently defeating his next closest challenger by 40 points. He is dominating the key early states of Iowa, South Carolina, and New Hampshire by over 30 points. In the general election, he remains Republicans' strongest option against Joe Biden. Trump is surging with non-white voters and rust belt voters, key to winning back the White House. There is simply no spin, President Trump is dominating the polling and race.
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